Wnba Basketball Pick - September 20, 2008
We lost on our lone pick last night. Today we are back with three WNBA playoffs picks including a 5-unit play. Over the last three weeks we are hitting 71% (12-5) for +18 units, including an 8-0 run on our 5-unit plays this season.
Today's WNBA Basketball Picks:
Game: New York at Connecticut (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Connecticut -6.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The WNBA semifinal round between the Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty resumes tonight in Connecticut. The Liberty took game 1 by the score of 72-63, as the Sun connected on just 37% shooting and 4-22 from beyond the arc - a woeful 18%. Things should be different tonight. The Sun is 13-4 at home on the season, and in those 13 wins they have a winning margin of 11.3 points per game. The Liberty has a losing record away from home. In their road losses they have been outscored by a similar margin at 11.2 ppg. This now becomes a double revenge game for the Sun. This game fits a long term trend that has produced a 96-41 ATS mark favoring the Sun - good for 70.1%, so I'll back the Sun here.
Game: New York at Connecticut (7:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Connecticut -280 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.1)
We covered lots of ground in my game analysis on the Sun ATS. The favorite out to revenge a loss, is well rested - having played only twice in five days, is 202-82 on the moneyline, so I will add a play on the moneyline as well.
Game: Sacramento at San Antonio (9:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Sacramento +8.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
San Antonio takes a 1-0 lead home in this series where they have been a very impressive 15-2 on the season. That stat alone is going to inflate the price of this game in order to get action on Sacramento. That puts value on the other side, and the public is behind the Silver Stars and their impressive home dominance at about a 65% rate. A closer look at the numbers reveals a different story. Yes, the Stars have been winning at home, but nine of their last 11 home wins, and 11 of their last 13 home games overall, they would have failed to cover 8.5! The Monarchs have only dropped three of their last 14 by a margin of 8+. This one has an inflated look to it, and the reality shows there is a lot of value on the Monarchs here to stay within the inflated number, I'll take the points here.
Results: 2-1
WNBA Basketball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five WNBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:
WNBA-Basketball-Picks-September-19-2008
Detroit opened as a mere one-point favorite but this line has since moved to 2.5. I like the value now represented on the moneyline with the home team. Detroit has historically handled the Fever, but ...
WNBA-Basketball-Picks-September-17-2008
The Eastern Conference Semifinals will begin in New York as the Connecticut Sun take on the New York Liberty. The Sun opened the season looking like the class of the WNBA with an 8-1 start, but the fi...
WNBA-Basketball-Picks-September-14-2008
Yes, Houston is a better team than Chicago overall. But, this game is being played in Chicago and that makes all the difference. At home, the Sky are a .500 team. on the road, the Comets have lost 13 ...
WNBA-Basketball-Picks-September-12-2008
The Phoenix Mercury travel to Minnesota to play the Lynx tonight. This game will go a long way to determine who finishes in the basement of the WNBA West as they both enter with identical 15-17 record...
WNBA-Basketball-Picks-September-11-2008
The New York Liberty makes the trip to Indiana to take on the Fever. The Fever have had the Liberty’s number this season. These teams have met three times with the Fever winning by double digits...
