Basketball Picks - June 26, 2009

Our WNBA picks are on a roll, hitting 60% (21-14) season to date.  During that time our $100 per unit bettors have netted close to $1,900 (+18.9 units) .  We have had nine winning days out of the past 13 and today we add our tenth winning day with premium picks in all four WNBA games, including a 5 unit selection.

RESULTSTABLE!

Today's WNBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Detroit at Atlanta (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Atlanta -2 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Things have certainly changed from a year ago. It took the Atlanta Dream all season to win four games a year ago and have already won three this season in the early going. This is obviously a different team. The Dream's top two scorers were not on the team last year and the #3 scorer, Angel McCoghtry, played in just seven games a year ago. The influx of top players has contributed 40 ppg for the Dream as well as 15 boards a night and six assists. That certainly can change a team in a hurry. The Detroit Shock have faced just the opposite. Kara Braxton and Plenette Pierson have missed almost every minute thus far and, it has shown, as the Shock is out of the gate at 1-4, struggling to find points and answers on offense. The balance of five double-digit scorers last year is down to two this year and they have been much easier to defend. I'm going with Atlanta in this one.

The Indiana Fever have won four straight and all but one of those came on their homecourt and, the one that didn't, was against a shorthanded Detroit team that isn't the same as they were a year ago, so it certainly has positioned the Fever favorably in the minds of the oddsmakers. The same can be true of the Liberty, in the opposite direction off an 0-3 start, but they have played just two games at home. History has shown this to be a homecourt league and this year has been no expception with home teams winning 69% of the games to date. The Liberty have been the top bounce back team in the WNBA as they are now 21-5 ATS off a straight up loss. Both these teams are averaging in the 70s, giving up in the 70s and the Fever have played 12 of their last 16 on the road to the over. Going to be hard pressed to keep either of these teams out of the 70s.  I like the Liberty here and the OVER.

The San Antonio Silver Stars were 24-10 a year ago, the best in the WNBA. This team can't be mistaken for that one. They maintain their top two players in Hammon and Young, but gone are Wauters, Buescher and Johnson. That trio combined for 29 ppg, 16 rpg,and over 200 assists. It has not been easy for them to make up those kind of losses and the Silver Stars are a big favorite off of what they did a year ago, not by the 2-3 team they put on the floor tonight. The Monarchs have not had a great deal of success this season, but they will be coming here with the memory of getting knocked out of the playoffs two straight years by the Silver Stars and, that mindset sometimes determines outcome, especially with a Silver Spurs team lacking the same ability as the team from a year ago. San Antonio is also not the defensive force they were a year ago with opponents putting up 77 a night on them and the Monarchs can score at 76 a game. The last four meetings have gone over the total as well as five of the last six in San Antonio. Payback time for the Monarchs and I will go with them here, along with the OVER.

I put out a lot of reasons in my game writeup between these two and not only is this San Antonio team down from a year ago, but they will have a fiesty hungry team to contend with here. The Monarchs were knocked out of the playoffs two straight years by the Silver Stars and one of the biggest motivaters of all is revenge. I will also go with Sacramento on the moneyline here.

Seattle has certainly established themselves as the top home team in the WNBA. They are 18-1 here over their last 19 games. That doesn't mean they should be laying double-digits to anyone and, despite last year's 16-1 mark at home, they were posted as a double-digit home favorite just twice and could not cover the number. One of those games was to Atlanta, who won all of four games a year ago and that one was set at just -11. It's just an overlay or tax by the oddsmaker knowing Seattle will get a lot of support, so value LA here. You also have to remember the Storm has dropped four of their last sixto LA, including a home decisive playoff game a year ago. This one is set way to high and I'm going with Los Angeles in this one.

Results: 3-4

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• Updated today: 2009 basketball picks.

Check out the last five WNBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-23-2009
There is no doubt the Atlanta Dream is an improved team as they stand at 3-3 on the season and are already 2-1 at home. It took the Dream 22 games to get their third win a year ago, and finished with ...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-21-2009
Atlanta goes for their third straight win - something they have surprisingly never done. If they get it, they would actually match their win total from last season! But, I don't think it's goi...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-20-2009
These teams are both coming off of losses last night, and back-to-back games could find the defenses a bit lax here. These are changed teams from a year ago, and those changes find the Mystics going f...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-19-2009
The Chicago Sky is off to their best start in franchise history, mostly do to a favorable early schedule. The Sky has finished as a sub-.500 team in all three of their previous WNBA seasons. They have...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-17-2009
The two most exciting teams in the WNBA square off in Phoenix tonight, that is if you like high octane offense. Phoenix comes in averaging a WNBA best 91.8ppg, while close on their tail is the Minneso...