Wnba Free Picks - June 21, 2009

We went 1-0 last night, pushing our season-to-date record to 16-10 for +18.5 units. Today, I have picks in all five games...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	16-10 last 26 picks	62%	+$1850
MLB	29-15 last 44 picks	66%	+$3250
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$24880

 

Today's WNBA Basketball Picks:

Game: New York at Atlanta (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 151 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)

Atlanta goes for their third straight win - something they have surprisingly never done. If they get it, they would actually match their win total from last season! But, I don't think it's going to come easy. While the Liberty are just 1-3, they aren't playing horrible basketball. They are actually 2-1 vs. the spread and they have shown the ability to score a lot. With the Dream allowing 77.4 points per game, I believe New York will get theirs this afternoon. In their history, the Liberty are 60-38 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. The past two seasons, they are 11-2 ATS after having lost two of their three prior games. Atlanta is 3-12 ATS the past two seasons at home after allowing 75+ points. They are also 0-9 ATS over that span at home after scoring 75+ points. I like the Liberty and the points here. I also like the UNDER. Over the past two seasons, New York is 18-9 UNDER vs. division opponents. They are also 85-47 UNDER in their history after two straight UNDER games. Over the past two seasons, they are 8-1 UNDER after covering the spread in two straight games. New York and the UNDER here.

A losing team laying double-digits? Yes! When they are facing another losing team that is shorthanded. The Silver Stars are again without Becky Hammon who is playing in the European championships. Despite their bad record, the Sun have played solid defense this season and they are coming off a confidence-inspiring 91-61 win vs. Chicago. Without Hammon's normal 18 points and 6 assists, the Silver Stars are in for real trouble here and I'll back the home team to win by double digits. I also like this game to go OVER the total. San Antonio road games have averaged 153.5 points per game while Connecticut home games have averaged 144.3 per game. Granted, not a lot of data yet but both point towards more points than this total. The fact that these teams have combined for a 3-5 OVER-UNDER mark thus far has artificially deflated this total and I think these teams are very likely to get into the high 140s at a minimum. The Sun and the OVER here.

Bill Laimbeer is out and Rick Mahorn is in. Who's next? Isiah? I digress. The defending champs are off to a bad 1-3 start and they just got blasted by double-digits by this Fever team. Revenge time. Detroit knows it's now or never and they have all the motivation in this one. They also have the better defense which will give them a shot at the outright win. Indiana is playing well but that could be a bad omen here. The Fever are just 22-44 ATS after back-to-back wins including 3-14 ATS when coming off back-to-back double-digit wins. They are also just 5-19 ATS after winning three straight games. I like Detroit here. I also like the OVER. Cheryl Ford returned last game but was rusty. I think she'll play better and the Detroit offense will get untracked tonight. Let's not forget that Indiana gives up 72.8 per game (74.3 at home). The Fever are 11-3 OVER the past three seasons when coming off a double-digit win over a division rival. I like Detroit and the OVER in this one.

What happens when two winning teams clash? The games are often intense and defense-laden. While Phoenix has done it this season with offense, Seattle has done it with defense. I do expect this to be a more intense game than these teams have been playing. The "obvious" choice here is the OVER, given the amount of points the teams have been scoring, and the fact that they have combined for a 8-4 OVER record thus far. But, often the obvious choice is the wrong one. Phoenix is 112-81 UNDER vs. winning teams including 47-25 UNDER when facing a team at .600 or better. They are also 115-84 UNDER after a win and 61-40 UNDER off back-to-back wins. I like this game to go UNDER the total.

Two 1-4 teams meet in what is a meaningful game for both as the difference between 2-4 and 1-5 is big. The absence of Candance Parker and Lisa Leslie have obviously really hurt the Sparks. But, the more they go on without them, the better they will adjust. Los Angeles had a tough four-game road stretch and are happy to be home where they are undefeated. They are also happy to see a team that is allowing nearly 85 points per game (nearly 100 on the road)! Sacramento is 27-50 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to six points. Over the past two seasons they are 2-9 ATS on the road after a division game. Los Angeles is 11-2 ATS at home following a division game. The Sparks get it done here.

Results: 4-3

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• Check out our updated 2009 WNBA basketball prior picks results.

Check out the last five WNBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-20-2009
These teams are both coming off of losses last night, and back-to-back games could find the defenses a bit lax here. These are changed teams from a year ago, and those changes find the Mystics going f...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-19-2009
The Chicago Sky is off to their best start in franchise history, mostly do to a favorable early schedule. The Sky has finished as a sub-.500 team in all three of their previous WNBA seasons. They have...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-17-2009
The two most exciting teams in the WNBA square off in Phoenix tonight, that is if you like high octane offense. Phoenix comes in averaging a WNBA best 91.8ppg, while close on their tail is the Minneso...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-16-2009
The Minnesota Lynx are off and running to start the WNBA season as they enter this game at 3-1. Off and running might be the best way to describe this team as they are averaging a WNBA best 89 points ...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-June-13-2009
Sometimes you have to take a look at what is happening around the game. Phoenix went to Sacramento last night and got blown out of the building. So this sets up a fresh revenge situation as they get a...