Wnba Basketball Picks - July 19, 2009

We dropped our lone pick last night, giving back 3 units. Today we come back with picks in three games...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	43-31 last 74 picks	58%	+$2910
MLB	74-58 last 132 picks	56%	+$3900
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$26590

 

Today's WNBA Basketball Picks:

Game: San Antonio at Chicago (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 144.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

When these teams met earlier this month, 157 points were scored. The total in that game was 140 so the oddsmakers have made a big adjustment here. But, it's not big enough. Chicago games are averaging 155.3 points per game this season and over their last five games, they have allowed opponents to rack up over 84 points per game. The Sky hit over 43% from beyond the arc this season and San Antonio is 9-1 OVER this season vs. teams that make 36%+ from three. The Silver Stars are 27-15 OVER the past two seasons vs. teams that allow 73+ points per game. Chicago is 11-4 OVER this season so all things point to an OVER here.

Minnesota has dropped seven in a row in this building but they have a fighting chance tonight. The Storm will be without their leading scorer, Lauren Jackson for this one. If she does play, she'll be hobbled (Achilles injury). After a shaky start, Minnesota has won five of their last eight. Seattle has lost four of their last seven. Minnesota is actually better on the road this season (4-2 SU and ATS) than at home (5-4). In June, the Storm dominated the Lynx, winning 90-62. Combined with the importance of this game in the standings, the Lynx have a lot of motivation here. They are 13-3 ATS lifetime revenging a 20+ point blowout loss. They are also 9-2 ATS the past two seasons coming off a home loss as they are today. I like Minnesota plus the points. I also like the OVER here. Minnesota games are averaging a ridiculous 165 points per game this season (nearly 169 on the road). They get teams into run-and-gun games. Over the past three seasons, the Lynx are 23-11 OVER vs. winning teams. When facing high-scoring teams (73+ ppg) in the second half of the season, they are 22-7 OVER during that span and 18-4 OVER vs. teams that hit 76%+ from the line. The Lynx have gone OVER in all six of their road games this season and 10-1 OVER the past two seasons when revenging a loss in which they gave up 85+ points. They are also 10-1 OVER dating back to last season when coming off a home loss. I like this one to go OVER.

I like the Monarchs here on the moneyline a lot. They have significant motivation here to win this game. First off, in a season in which wins are rare, this is a rare opportunity to notch another one. Secondly, they are seeking revenge for a double-digit blowout loss to the Shock in their last game. I expect Sacramento to really come out and play tonight. Detroit just isn't very good this season and expecting them to win on the road vs. a motivated opponent is expecting a lot. Detroit is just a .500 team in their history when facing teams that are .250 or worse. Meanwhile, Sacramento is 101-56 straight-up vs. teams with a losing record. That includes a 42-15 mark vs. teams at .250 to .400. Since last season, the Monarchs are 10-3 straight-up at home vs. teams that allow 73+ points per game. They are also 171-59 overall in their lifetime as a favorite including 139-49 as a home favorite. Narrow that to games in which they are -155 to -250 and their record is a stellar 58-11 straight-up. This is a very winnable game for Sacramento and I think they take advantage.

Sacramento is just 3-12 on the season. So how can they win a game as a favorite? Well, it helps when they are at home facing the 4-8 Detroit Shock. Sacramento has revenge motivation here as they lost to the Shock by 14 points in late June. Sacramento has some advantages here that they can't often claim. They have the better offense in this game (80 ppg at home vs. 73 on the road for Detroit) and the better defense (79.5 at home vs. 82 allowed for Detroit). The Monarchs are 46-26 ATS lifetime at home vs. losing teams including 34-19 ATS vs. teams at .400 or below. Over the past three seasons, they are 23-11 ATS as a home favorite including 18-7 when favored by six points or less. Finally, over the past three seasons they are 10-2 ATS at home when coming off back-to-back ATS losses. Sacramento gets it done here.

Results: 2-3

WNBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated 2009 basketball prior picks season results.
• Updated today: sports handicapping WNBA picks.
• Take a look at our blog basketball picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our WNBA prior predictions.
• Don't forget to visit our WNBA top teams.
• Don't forget to visit our WNBA sportsbook.
• Updated today: WNBA basketball ATS records.

Check out the last five WNBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-18-2009
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WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-17-2009
Two teams that have made quantum leaps forward square off in Indiana as the Atlanta Dream are in town to face the Fever. The Fever, after an 0-2 start have rattled off 10 straigh wins and are by far t...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-15-2009
What a difference a year makes. San Antonio was the best team a year ago in the regular season finishing with a 24-10 mark, while Washington limped out of the season at 10-24. There is a clear differe...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-14-2009
The Sparks again have the services of last year's all-everything Candace Parker, but it is pretty clear she isn't ready at this stage to provide the same caliber of play she did a year ago. Bu...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-11-2009
The Detroit Shock has not been up to the standard that they have been in the recent past. But there is talent here and they are getting healthier as Braxton and Ford have returned and the Shock has pl...