Basketball Predictions - July 15, 2008

We posted our second winning day in a row as we nailed both of our picks for +6.3 units. We are 4-1 over the last two days for +7.8 units. Four picks today with two 4-unit plays.

Today's WNBA Basketball Picks:

Game: New York at Connecticut (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Connecticut -6.5 (-105) (risk 3 to win 2.9)

The Connecticut Sun sure will be glad to get home as they are coming off a three-game road trip – losing all three games. The Sun offense has really struggled on the road where it has produced 80 points or more in just three of 11 games, compared to seven of 10 at home, where they just seem to play a different game. New York is coming off a huge emotional win as they beat Detroit at home their last time out. The Liberty could be a little flat facing this hungry Connecticut team. The Liberty has not fared well away from their home court, entering with just a 3-7 mark. We like the Sun in this one.

We like Connecticut here to cover ATS, but for many of the same reasons see the value in the moneyline as well. We spoke of the Connecticut offense which has fared much better at home. There is a longtime WNBA trend that shows the significance of this. Once the season is 15 games old, teams that score 76+ points per game against teams that allow 76+ a game, have gone 68-19 against the moneyline or win the game straight up 78.2% of the time. We will also back the Sun here on the moneyline as well.

San Antonio has been about as good as it gets at home posting an 11-1 mark, but they certainly haven't been eye-opening on the road where they are just 4-6. Overall they have played a soft schedule on the road, as they have only had three of their 10 games against winning teams. Their road wins have come over teams with a combined 26-53 record. Even with a league's best mark (15-7), the jury is still out on this team. The Silver Stars still have two games left with LA, two left with Connecticut and a game against Detroit, so the schedule gets much tougher down the stretch. The Mercury has spent a lot of time on the road, but will play nine of their next 11 at home hoping to move up in the standings. They played San Antonio tough on the road losing by just five points, but after shooting just 2-15 in the second quarter they never recovered. That kind of drought doesn't happen to this team at home. Couple that fact with as bad as San Antonio has been on the road against mediocre competition, and we will ride the Mercury here.

Just as we like the Mercurys' chances laying the points we also see value in the moneyline in this one. When playing at home, well-rested teams seeking revenge for a prior loss have gone 186-73 good for 71.8% winning against the moneyline. They have also been 120-43 or 73.6% playing with revenge off a loss to a division rival. The trends say the value lies with the Mercury on the moneyline as well, so we will back them here.

WNBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• View our basketball sportsbook here.
• Hop over to our WNBA picks blog here.
• Read our WNBA previous picks here.
• Take a look at our basketball predictions here.
• View 2007 WNBA pick season results here.
• Updated today: WNBA power.

Check out the last five WNBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-14-2008
The Sparks have come up big against the big teams at home with wins over Connecticut and Detroit. After seven straight at home, they got a road shock dropping both games. Now the Sparks come back home...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-13-2008
Connecticut is one of our top three teams while Washington is a bottom-three team. The Sun can score with anyone and their hot offense has gotten even hotter of late as they are averaging nearly 85 pe...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-12-2008
Chicago has not been able to slow anyone down on the road at all. In their last seven road games they have averaged yielding a 83.1 points per game! The fact that they have also scored well has led to...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-11-2008
The Shock have left themselves in good position to capture the WNBA East. They have yet to lose at home and have nine of their 15 remaining games in Detroit where they have been unbeatable. Although t...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-10-2008
The Phoenix Mercury is the most exciting team in the WNBA and invades Seattle tonight for what should be an entertaining game if you like points. Phoenix has perfected the run-and-gun game and over it...