Basketball Betting Pick - August 11, 2009

We posted another winning WNBA day for +1.8 units. Last night's winner added to our already successful WNBA season at 66-51 for +24.5 units so far.

Today, a 5-unit WNBA play anchors our four-pick premium card.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	66-51 last 117 picks	56%	+$2450
MLB	142-97 last 239 picks	59%	+$11730
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$33960

Today's WNBA Basketball Picks:

Game: Detroit at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Washington -3 (-105) (risk 5 to win 4.8)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 148 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)

When you compare these teams from what they were a year ago, there are no similarities. The Mystics were losing their last nine games, and last six at home, while the Shock were sweeping San Antonio on their way to a WNBA Championship, finishing the season on a 12-2 run. The Mystics are the heads and heels better team this year, and at -3.5 the oddsmakers are saying that on a neutral court, these teams are even. The Shock's largest margin of victory in their three road wins has been by a slender four points. Last year the Shock averaged beating the Mystics by 19 points per game, and now it is time to return the favor. The Mystics have already beaten the Shock twice this season, and I think they will make that three tonight. The Mystics are a vastly-improved offensive team, one that is scoring 77 ppg. The Shock has opened up the offense with their coaching change, and I expect this one to be a high-scoring affair as well. I'm going with Washington and the OVER here.

The oddsmakers are treating this Silver Stars team like they are the same one that blew through the WNBA a season ago at home, winners of 15 of the 17 games played here. They stand at just 6-4 so far this season at home, and resemble little of what last year's team accomplished. They have won half of those six games by four points or less. The Monarchs are not a good team, but are better than what they were at the beginning of the season. They opened by losing their first five on the road by 10+ points, collecting zero ATS wins. They have since won twice on the road and have been highly competitive. San Antonio has had great difficulties playing with short rest as they are now a woeful 1-11 ATS after just one day of rest. I like Sacramento to stay inside the number here vs. an overrated San Antonio team.

This league certainly has changed offensively. Several years ago just one or two teams put up 70+ a game, but now just about all the teams do. So when you see a total sitting in the 130s, you have to take a close look at the over. That holds more value when you see an LA team that has their star performer back, and has played so much on the road, that they are not being evaluated properly. This marks just their eighth home game of the season. While they have put up frequent 50s and 60s for offensive output on the road, they are averaging 76 ppg at home. That sure makes this total look awfully low. This New York team has also increased the pace as they have played to the over in seven of their last nine, and are averaging 78 ppg in the process. I like this one to go OVER the total.

Results: 2-2

WNBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our 2009 basketball picks.
• Here we show our basketball free picks.
• Read our basketball picks blog here.
• Check out our updated WNBA record.
• Take a look at our WNBA basketball power ratings here.
• Take a look at our sports betting basketball here.
• Take a look at our WNBA against-the-spread records here.

Check out the last five WNBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-August-10-2009
It has been a much less successful season for the Los Angeles Sparks. A good reason is the heavily weighted road schedule they have played, and also missing their best all-around player for much of th...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-August-09-2009
The team with the worse record here is favored by five points. And I don't think it's enough. This is a big revenge situation. On June 6, the Mystics strolled in here and laid a 12-point ...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-August-08-2009
I think it is time for the oddsmakers to make a different evaluation of this Seattle team. Gone is the defensive stalwart that ruled the day a season ago, and with it, the consistent wins that this te...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-August-07-2009
These teams have turned in completely different directions from a year ago. The Shock was sitting atop the East, while the Mystics endured a painfully woeful season. The only Eastern team this year th...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-August-06-2009
The Seattle Storm is certainly not the team they put on the court a year ago. This team has shown to have many more defensive lapses, or lack of commitment, from that of just a year ago. It has led th...