Free Wnba Pick - August 01, 2009

We are back on the WNBA floor with a vengeance as we roll out seven premium plays including a 5-unit play and a trio 4-unit picks.

Our season-to-date WNBA mark is firmly planted in the black as we are 54-41 (57%) for +24 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	54-41 last 95 picks	57%	+$2400
MLB	121-86 last 207 picks	58%	+$8800
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$30980

Today's WNBA Basketball Picks:

Game: New York at Atlanta (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on New York +4.5 (+100) (risk 5 to win 5)

New York has had it so bad that they fired their coach, Pat Coyle. Anne Donovan takes over here. They begin a road trip which I think will be healthy emotionally, after an 0-3 home stand. The last couple of times they were on the road with a line similar to this, they covered both times (+3.5 at Washington and +3 at Chicago). This team is in fact 4-2 ATS on the road this season. Atlanta is a losing team because they can't defend. Despite scoring 82.4 per game, they have a sub-.500 record. This bodes well for New York as the Liberty are 10-2 ATS on the road the past two seasons in post-All star play when facing a team that allows 73+ ppg. They are also 9-2 ATS on the road over that same span against teams that score 73+ ppg. Over the same time span, they are 17-8 ATS off a loss and 11-2 ATS if the loss was against a division rival. Atlanta is 11-3 ATS the past two seasons at home after a game in which they scored 75+ points. Atlanta looks like the easy choice here but that usually means the other side is the right play.

Chicago, a losing team, has been excellent at home this season which is why they are favored vs. the Sun, a winning team. But I like the road team here. Against the spread, Chicago has a losing record at home while Connecticut, a winning record on the road. As a road underdog the past three seasons, the Sun are 21-9 ATS. If they are coming off back-to-back solid offensive performances (75+ points), they are 11-3 ATS. Chicago is 2-8 ATS this season against division opponents and 1-7 ATS after a win. Connecticut gets the call. I also like the OVER here. Chicago home games have gone 5-4 OVER this season and their division games have gone 7-3 OVER as they are allowing 80 ppg in these games. When playing with two days rest, they are a perfect 6-0 OVER this season. Take the Sun and the OVER.

These two teams have been great over the past decade, making it to the palyoffs with regularity. That was then - this is now. In 2009, these are the worst two teams in the league. I'm backing the second worst team, getting points, in this one. The Monarchs are 6-13 ATS overall and 3-10 ATS against division opponents this season yet they are favored. One of the few things that LA does well is rebound (averaging 45 per game). Sacramento is 0-7 ATS this season against teams that average 42+ boards per game. Sacramento is off a game in which they scored 101 and they are 0-7 ATS this season after scorign 80+ in their last game. They gave up 93 points in that game which can't inspire confidence. I like the Sparks here. I also like the OVER. The last Monarchs game reached 194 points. Their home games have averaged over 160 points per game. Their last five games have averaged even higher. The Sparks have averaged 152 points in their last five games and in eight division games, the average has reached 155.4 per game. All numbers point north here. In addition, when coming off three straight OVERs, the Monarchs are 17-6 OVER at home. They are also 9-2 OVER the past two seasons after allowing 70+ points in four straight games. LA and the OVER here.

The Storm have been waiting for this one since Tuesday when they lost to San Antonio on a buzzer-beater three-point shot. Seattle had that game in hand for three quarters (leading by 10 at the start of the fourth), but then fell apart. They are going to be bringing it here in search of revenge. They now get this game on their home court and they should really roll here. The Silver Stars are just 2-6 SU and ATS on the road this season while the Storm are 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS at home. The defensive difference is big as Seattle gives up over 10 points per game less at home than does San Antonio on the road. The Storm are 21-9 ATS the past three seasons at home when facing a team that allows 73+ points per game (San Antonio allows 75 per game overall and nearly 79 per game on the road). Over the past two seasons, San Antonio is 4-12 ATS on the road against division opponents. Seattle meanwhile is 19-9 ATS as a home favorite over that same timespan. Over the past three seasons, Seattle is 14-5 ATS at home coming off a loss. I like the Storm here. I also like this game to go OVER the total. San Antonio division games have averaged 152 points per game and their last five games overall have reached 157 per game. Seattle division games have averaged 147 per game. When facing a winning team over the past three seasons, San Antonio is 22-13 to the OVER. They are also 29-17 OVER the past two seasons when facing a team that averages 73+ ppg. Over the past three seasons, when coming off a game in which they scored 80+ points, the Silver Stars are 21-10 OVER.

Results: 3-4

WNBA Basketball Picks Resources:

• Updated today: 2009 WNBA basketball prior picks.
• Read our WNBA basketball pick here.
• View our updated WNBA blog.
• Updated today: basketball prior picks.
• Don't forget to read our WNBA power ratings here.
• Hop over to our WNBA sportsbook reviews here.
• Updated today: basketball ATS recrds.

Check out the last five WNBA Basketball Picks Newsletters:

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-30-2009
The Liberty should have all their focus for this one as they suffered a heartbreaking one-point loss in Washington less than two weeks ago. The Liberty have been at their best in twosituations. When t...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-28-2009
The Indiana Fever has looked like the team to beat in the WNBA this season, as they are 12-2 after an 0-2 start. The Washington Mystics are an improved team this season as well, but have had a lot of ...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-26-2009
When a team starts as poorly as Sacramento did (3-14), there comes a time when they become a team to back. The oddsmakers start shading the lines, giving extra value each and every game. Their opponen...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-23-2009
The Indiana Fever have been the biggest surprise in the WNBA as we head to the midpoint of the season. They enter here with a mark of 12-3, and will face the San Antonio Silver Stars in San Antonio. T...

WNBA-Basketball-Picks-July-22-2009
The Detroit Shock have been a front runner in the WNBA East for a few years now, but this team has suffered losses that are showing up in the win loss column resulting in a 5-8 mark on the season. The...