Free Hockey Pick - November 30, 2009

We skated to another easy NHL night finishing 3-2 last night. We are hitting 63% (92-55) over the last five weeks for +76 units. Six premium plays today...

Today's NHL Hockey Picks:

Game: Washington at Carolina (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Carolina +140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)

Carolina went through their worst streak in franchise history by going winless over 14 games. They have now dropped four straight again, which makes them look like they are heading down the tube once again, but keep in mind three of those were on the road. Since they ended the 14-game winless streak, they have played four at home and won three of those, so we’re getting some line value here as no one wants to touch this team. The Capitals have been streaky, but after a six-game streak without a loss, they have been a breakeven team. The one team the Hurricanes have mastered on home ice is the Caps as they are 7-2 in their last nine meetings in Carolina. This is a good spot for the Hurricanes here and they get the call.

The Penguins had the hot hand early, went through a tough stretch that saw them drop five of seven, and have heated up again. The Panthers have dropped just one of their last five. When they get hot, it begins at the defensive end and behind the net as they have allowed just 40 goals in their 18 wins, or just over two per game. The Rangers aren’t thriving at the offensive end right now. Outside of a seven-goal burst vs. the Blue Jackets, the Rangers have been tamed to 16 goals in their last eight. The Penguins are really stepping-up as road chalk where they have delivered the cash in nine of their last 10. The Rangers are struggling vs. teams that scored big in their last game at just 2-8 vs. an opponent off of scoring 5+. The Penguins own the Rangers lately taking the last five in this series, and the Rangers are ripe for No. 6 here. The Pens get the money.

While the Panthers for can't find answers at home, they certainly have done a better job on the road. They have posted a 7-5-1 mark so far on the season, which bests the .500 mark the Thrashers have notched on home ice. The Panthers have grabbed wins in some tough venues, dropping just one of their last five on the road. The wins have come at the Rangers, Bruins, and Red Wings, so they certainly look like a live dog here. The Thrashers own just one win in their last four on home ice where they are 4-9 in their last 13 against a team with a winning road record. The Panthers meanwhile, are sporting perfection at 5-0 on the road vs. a team with a losing home record. I'll ride the live dog here and back the Panthers.

The Predators extended their streak to nine games of limiting their opponent to three goals or less, but the bigger picture is even more impressive. The Predators have allowed just 33 goals in their last 16 games. The problem is that they have tallied just 54 in their last 23 games, or just 2.3 per game. The Flames have lost just once all season on the road thanks to a defense and net-minding that has allowed just 17 goals in their last 10 on the road, or 1.7 per game. This is the third game in four days for Nashville - a situation that begs for the UNDER as they are 20-6-1 in their last 27 in that situation. The Flames are 11-4 to the UNDER in their last 15 games. This one looks tight and low, so I'll play the UNDER here.

The Red Wings seem to be a step behind what they have been the last few years. They had a double-revenge game vs. the Blues and managed to step it up, but the offense has been lackluster of late and struggling to find the net. Prior to the Blues game, just six goals in six games for the Wings are hardly what we are used to seeing from this team. The Stars have also been lethargic on the offensive end as they have scored two or less in eight of their last 13. The Wings have played low as home chalk of -110 to -150 with a 13-3-1 mark to the UNDER and 19-6-1 in their last 26 overall as a home favorite. In their fourth game in six days, the Stars have played 12-5-1 to the UNDER in this situation. I'll play this one to go UNDER the total.

The Colorado Avalanche went the final 16 games of last season without winning a game in regulation. What a surprise to see them off to a start that saw them losing just once in regulation over their first 13 games. There is an old saying that "water seeks its level,” and the Avalanche appear to be heading back in that direction. Their last 14 games show just three wins in regulation, and just one of those on the road. It might be tough to grab a win on the road vs. a Lightning team that has dropped just one all season in Tampa. Teams heading in opposite directions says the Lightning get this one.

Results: 2-3

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Check out the last five NHL Hockey Picks Newsletters:

NHL-Hockey-Picks-November-29-2009
Anaheim has certainly turned things around by winning four of their last five games. But let's not forget they have still lost five of their last nine overall and they stand at 10-14 overall. Thei...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-November-28-2009
You really have to give credit to the Islanders after a poor season a year ago. A one win in 10 games to start and they could have easily packed it in early. To their credit they bounced back and beca...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-November-27-2009
The Bruins were dominating teams at home a year ago, but such is not the case this season at just 6-5-1. Last year they started 14-1-1 on home ice. They had scored 54 times through their first 12 home...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-November-26-2009
Columbus has played horribly on defense this season, especially the last couple of nights and they know it. Ken Hitchcock said as much, "We have not got good goaltending the last two nights. It&#...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-November-25-2009
The Washington Capitals are tough as nails at home. You have to go all the way back to last March to find them losing at home by more than a single goal, so you know they will always be in the game. I...