NHL Hockey Premium Edition |
March 22, 2007 |
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darrell,
Four picks tonight including a 5-unit play.
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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: San Jose at Atlanta (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Atlanta -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Both of these teams have been hot. San Jose has won seven of nine while Atlanta has won eight of ten. Atlanta can score with anyone at home and tehy are playing solid defense right now. But, the Sharks have been playing patsies. They beat Edmonton, Chicago twice, Phoenix and Columbus. That doesn't impress us. San Jose is just 3-12 in their last fifteen games vs. winning teams. We'll take Atlanta at home here.
Game: Montreal at Boston (7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Montreal +115 (risk 3 to win 3.5)
Montreal has won 10 of the last 14 games betweent these clubs. They look for the sweep in the home-and-home series and their fifth straight win against the Bruins. The Canadiens are fighting for their playoff lives. Montreal is indeed playing like a team in need having won four of their last five games. Boston's defense is terrible and Montreal has found some offense of late. Home teams that allow 3+ goals per game, after scoring 1 goal or less in two straight games are just 32-65 (33%) in second-half play over the past decade. Without offense, these teams are toast. Boston struggles at home vs. good offensive teams and we like the motivated dog here.
Game: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh -103 (risk 3 to win 2.9) Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 6.5 -101 (risk 5 to win 5)
Young SIdney Crosby owns the Islanders. He has posted 31 points in 14 games against New York and tonight he should again have success. Pittsburgh is playing well enough to earn themselves their first playoff bid since 2001. The Penguins have won seven of their last nine, finally finding some defense to go with their always-strong offense. Over their last five games, they are winning on average by a 3.8 to 2.4 score. New York has lost four of five by allowing 4.8 goals per game. Pittsburgh has won 13 of their last 16 games vs. teams that allow 30+ shots on goal per game. Take the hot Penguines here for roughly even money. We also expect this game to go UNDER as 22 of New York's 34 home games have this season. In fact, in March, only one game in eleven has gone OVER for New York at home. They are also 21-10 UNDER following a road game this season including 8-1 UNDER off a road loss. Expect New York goals to be rare here and for the UNDER to come through.
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