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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
NHL Hockey Premium Edition
March 18, 2007

darrell,

Winning night last night thanks to two very low-priced 3-unit winners. Tonight we like the board a lot and have seven plays including a 5-unit seleciton.

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The Wunderdog


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Premium Picks

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Buffalo at Atlanta (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta -103 (risk 3 to win 2.9)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 6.5 -115 (risk 5 to win 4.4)

Buffalo is definitely tough on the road but right now they aren't playing great hockey. They have dropped five of seven games, allowing 3+ goals in six of those games. Atlanta is very tough at home right now. A victory here gives them a franchise-record seventh straight home win. With Tampa Bay nipping on their heels, they need to keep winning. The Sabres are seem to be a bit tired, having already played eight games this month with this being their fourth game in five days. Road teams off two straight road wins are just 75-141 (35%) over the past five seasons. Atlanta is playing excellent defense right now having held eight of their last ten opponents to just 2 goals or less. The other two games, they gave up 3 goals. Overall they are averaging just 1.8 goals allowed per game over that span. Atlanta is 16-5 UNDER during March the past two seasons. The Sabres are 13-5 UNDER in the second of back-to-back road games this season. Games with a total of 6+ featuring a good offensive home team (2.9+ goals per game) coming off a game where 3 or fewer total goals were scored are 54-22 UNDER (71%) during second-half play over the last 5 seasons. In what should be a tight, hard-fought game, we like the Thrashers to win and the game to go UNDER.


Game: Ottawa at Pittsburgh (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Pittsburgh -105 (risk 2 to win 1.9)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 6.5 -121 (risk 2 to win 1.7)

Ottawa ha won four of five games. But, only one of those wins came on the road. This team is very different away from home. They score 3.7 per game at home and allow 2.5. But on the road they score 3.3 and allow 3.1. They are just mediocre away from home. Pittsburgh is similar. They play very poor defense on the road but at home they are solid. They score 3.4 per game and allow 2.6. Right now they are on a scoring binge having scored 4.1 goals per game over their last seven games on way to a 6-1 mark. The Penguins are 12-3 in their last fifteen vs. poor defensive teams that allow 30+ shots on goal per game. They are also 10-1 in their last eleven home games vs. teams scoring 2.9+ per game. We expect Pittsburgh to keep Ottawa's offense in check. The Senators are 18-14 UNDER on the road this season and 24-14 UNDER the past two seasons on the road vs. winning teams. Pittsburgh is 20-15 UNDER at home. Take Pittsburgh and the UNDER.


Game: San Jose at Colorado (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 6 -115 (risk 3 to win 2.6)

The Sharks are 21-14 UNDER this season on the road. They score 2.9 per game and allow just 2.5. In their last five games they have allowed just 0.8 goals per game. Colorado can score as we know, but of late they are also playing inspired defense (2.0 per game allowed over their last five). They have gone UNDER in five of their last six games. San Jose has been a tear which is good for the UNDER here. The Sharks are 16-7 UNDER following two straight wins this season and 14-5 UNDER after a blowout win (3+ goals). They are 20-6 UNDER their last 26 after two straight blowout wins. They are also 19-9 UNDER vs. winning teamst his season.


Game: Phoenix at Dallas (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Phoenix +280 (risk 2 to win 5.6)

We've been nailing our big underdog plays at a very high rate this month so we'll take another stab here. Phoenix appears to have no shot here but note that they have won half of the games played against Dallas here over the past three seasons. They beat the Stars 5-2 in January and in December lost by only one goal to the Stars. Their problem is defense and Dallas is not a very high-scoring team. So, they Coyotes always have a shot in what is usually a very low-scoring affair. Phoenix has only won one game in their last seven but they are 11-6 the past two seasons on the road following a stretch in which they lost four of their last five games. They are also 11-6 over that span following a game in which they allowed 6+ goals. As we mentioned, Phoenix won the last time these teams met and the Stars are suprisingly 0-4 the past two seasons at home revenging a home blowout loss. Gretzky will have his team as ready as they can be and we look for Phoenix to have a decent shot at surprising Dallas again here.


Game: Los Angeles at Anaheim (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Anaheim -1.5 -118 (risk 3 to win 2.5)

We faded Anaheim as a big home favorite last week. Sure enough they were caught sleeping against Columbus and lost as a -350 favorite. Not again. That surely woke them up and we look for them to make sure they don't repeat the same mistake here. No sleep-walking in this game. Instead, we expect to see them exert their supreme advantages here. LA is just 9-25 on the road this season, allowing 3.8 goals per game. Anaheim is 25-13 at home and 4-1 in their last five games. They are destroying everyone in their path (save Columbus). Over the last five games, they are winning by an average score of 4.0 to 2.2 and that includes the 5-4 loss to the Blue Jackets. Losing road dogs of +200 to +300 having lost 5+ of their last seven games are just 5-34 vs. winning teams over the past five seasons in second-half play. The Ducks are 28-9 at home vs. poor defensive teams (30+ shots on goal allowed) the past two seasons. LA is 1-14 this season after winning two of their last three games. They are also 4-19 following a 4+ goal performance. We look for an Anaheim blowout here and we'll back the Ducks -1.5 on the puckline.


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The Wunderdog

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