Free Hockey Pick - March 12, 2009

Over the last month, our NHL picks are +16 units. After taking last night off, we are back today with five NHL picks including a 4-unit selection.

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Today's NHL Hockey Picks:

Game: Phoenix at New Jersey (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Phoenix +245 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 7.4)

The New Jersey Devils have won five of their last six games, and have now also won eight straight at home. The Coyotes are meeting the opposite fate as they have dropped six of their last seven, and are just 3-11 in their last 14 on the road. So what is there to like about Phoenix in this one? They have recently won at Dallas as a +187 dog, in Boston as a +268 dog, and also a win at Vancouver as a +190 dog. They have had success against this Devils’ team as they have won four of the last five meetings. The odds are high enough here to swing the pendulum of value over to the dog, so I'm taking the Coyotes here.

The Penguins have won seven straight games. They have also won nine out of 10, but the margins have gotten thinner, as their last two wins required shootouts to get it done. The Blue Jackets have been a tough out at home all season long, and have dominated the Eastern Conference with an 11-2 mark. The Penguins have struggled when their opponent is off a game scoring two goals or less, as they are just 4-11 in their last 15. The opposite is true of the Blue Jackets as they have been 12-4 after scoring two goals or less. This has been a home-dominated series with the visitor not being able to break through as the home team has won the last five in this series. I look for that to continue tonight. The Blue Jackets get this one.

The Islanders have not gotten enough going to offer any kind of success label on their season. But like most bad teams, they had brief moments of playing over their heads. Each time they have done so, they have come away with an unlikely surprise. They are in the midst of one of those stretches now as they are winners of four of their last six games. The Canadiens have lost just six times at home all year, but two of those have come in the last seven games. Is this their most vulnerable spot? Are they taking poor teams for granted? They have shown that it is with just one win in their last five against teams with a winning percentage of .400 or less, and have struggled vs. the East at just 3-11. I'll take the big doggie points in this one with an Islanders’ team playing well and a Canadiens’ team that is typically a no-show in this type of matchup.

The Carolina Hurricanes are a much-improved team as they have compiled a 15-8 mark since midway through January, which includes a recent 8-3 run in their last 11 games. Dallas has established no sort of home dominance this season, and their recent play leaves much to be desired. The Stars have managed to find the win column just twice in their last 10 games and have now dropped an amazing six straight on home ice. The Hurricanes are playing in back-to-back nights, which has been when they are at their best as they are 13-3 in this situation. The Stars are in a free fall, so I'm going with Carolina in this one.

The Minnesota Wild has struggled on the road, and over their last 21 games they own just a 7-14 mark. It is easy to understand why they have had trouble winning as they have scored just 41 goals in those 20 road games, or just two per game. The win column has also been elusive for the Avalanche, in any venue, as they are just 7-18 over their last 25 games. The theme has been the same as the Avalanche has garnered just 33 goals in their last 15 games for just over two per themselves. I am not sure where the last two goals are going to come from here to push this total over, especially since these teams have played under in four of their last five meetings. This one goes UNDER the total.

Results: 3-2

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Check out the last five NHL Hockey Picks Newsletters:

NHL-Hockey-Picks-March-10-2009
Pittsburgh has strung together six straight wins. Maybe it has done some good getting out of town as their last five wins were on the road. The Penguins have not nearly been the same team they were la...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-March-08-2009
Boston is just as good on the road as they are at home. On the road they have compiled a 21-12 record, thanks to holding opponents to just 2.1 goals per game. The Rangers play pretty good defense too,...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-March-07-2009
The New Jersey Devils went through a scoring drought and it cost them two games, both resulting in shutouts. They have been hot otherwise, sandwiching nine wins around that pair of games and recently ...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-March-06-2009
The Atlanta Thrashers have not been able to get anything going all year. They have been in some high scoring games, but usually come up short. Their recent play at home might indicate some offensive p...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-March-05-2009
The battle of New York brings the Rangers into town against the home-standing Islanders. The Islanders have been an offensive mess all season long and have now scored just 49 goals in their last 23 ga...