We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Washington at New York Islanders (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 6.5 -117 (risk 3 to win 2.6)
NY Islanders games go UNDER at home at a 67% clip this year (22-11)! Washington has scored just two total goals in their last three games while the Islanders have scored just 3 or fewer goals in five of their last seven games. The Capitals are 20-11 UNDER this season vs. losing teams. New York is 12-4 UNDER after allowing 2 goals or less this season and 9-1 UNDER the past two seasons at home off a game in which they scored under two goals.
Game: Ottawa at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 6.5 -107 (risk 4 to win 3.7)
The last three times these teams met, no more than six goals were scored. Ottawa is 17-13 UNDER on the road this season and they are playing good defense right now. Toronto is 18-13 UNDER at home this year and they are not scoring right now at all. They have posted 1 goal performances three times in the last five games. Honestly, Toronto is looking at 0-2 goals tonight which puts a lot of pressure on Ottawa to cover this number by themselves. Ottawa is 25-13 UNDER this season on the road vs. good offensive teams the past two seasons while this season Toronto is 14-5 UNDER in their last 19 vs. good offensive teams that average 2.9+ goals per game. Toronto is also 21-13 UNDER following an UNDER last game.
Game: Atlanta at Florida (7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Florida +1.5 -243 (risk 3 to win 1.2) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 6 +108 (risk 3 to win 3.2)
Atlanta's been on a tear winning five straight. But only one of those came on the road. In that game they were favored and won by a goal. Now after three cupcake home games, they travel to Florida and it won't be as easy. Road favorites that are scoring 2.9+ goals per game off four wins by 2+ goals are only 11-27 (29%) over the past decade as lines get out of whack. It's just hard to sustain that kind of performance night after night. Atlanta is in fact 5-11 this season after having won 5+ out of their last 7 games. Florida is 9-1 this season following two games in which they scored less than three goals. Take Florida +1.5 goals here. Only once in the last eight matchups between these teams has more than six goals been scored. Atlanta is 19-13 UNDER on the road and they have played in only one game that went OVER in their last six. Florida is a more balanced team having split their home games OVER-UNDER. They can score but also play solid defense. On the road vs. poor defensive teams, Atlanta is 10-3 UNDER this season. Florida is 23-13 UNDER vs. great offensive teams (3+ goals per game) and 21-14 UNDER vs. terrible defensive teams (3+ goals per game). Finally, Atlanta is 14-3 UNDER on the road after playing in a very high scoring game (8+ total goals) the past two seasons.
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