Nhl Free Picks - March 03, 2009

We're hitting 61% over the past couple of weeks on the ice. Today we go with five picks including a 5-unit selection...

Today's NHL Hockey Picks:

Game: Philadelphia at Boston (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Boston -165 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3)

Boston is looking for revenge for their 4-3 loss to Philadelphia here in February. That was an OT loss and came thanks to a somewhat lucky shot by the hated Randy Jones. I expect Boston to be fired up for this game. The fact that they lost on Saturday by a fluke goal adds even more fuel to the fire. The Bruins are good at home where they score 4.0 goals per game while allowing just 2.5. It's led to a 21-9 record. The Bruins are 30-10 vs. bad defensive teams (those allowing 2.9+ goals per game). I like Boston a lot here.

Carolina beat Washington 3-1 the last time they met. Why not again? Yes, the Caps are one of the toughest teams in the league at home. But right now their defense isn't playing very well. They have allowed 3.6 goals per game over their last five games and 3.1 per game all season vs. division foes. And right now Carolina is scoring. The Hurricanes have won four of six games, scoring 3.7 goals per game in the process! This season, versus superb offensive teams (those averaging 30+ shots per game), Carolina is 16-10. They are also coming off a road loss and are 12-5 in that situation this season. I like the odds here on the Hurricanes who have a fighter's chance.

Nashville is 21-11 to the UNDER at home this season. They have held opponents to 2.4 goals per game here and tonight they get a team that is struggling offensively. Edmonton put up five on Tampa Bay last week but outside of that, they have averaged just 2.1 goals per game in their last seven. Nashville scored eight goals last game against Detroit and those kind of performances are often followed by low outputs. Over the past three seasons, the Predators are 23-10 UNDER in the second half of the season vs. teams that allow 3+ goals per game. Following a win by 2+ goals this season, they are 13-2 UNDER. I like this one to come in UNDER the total.

Vancouver is hot and Minnesota is not. So why do I like the Wild here? Minnesota has won six of hte last ten meetings between these two teams here in Vancouver. As a +145 dog last game, they put up four goals vs. Vancouver on way to the win. The Wild defense is very tough, allowing just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season - better than Vancouver at home. Despite their recent winning streak, the fact remains that the Canucks are a .500 team and in my opinion, shouldn't be laying this kind of wood. They have a losing record vs. losing teams this season (13-16). And they have been bad in revenge mode having gone 17-29 over the past two seasons when seeking same-season revenge. I like Minnesota's chances here. I also like the OVER. Vancouver is 20-9 OVER the past two seasons after the mid-way point. In their last four games (eight total), neither team has posted an OVER. That's driven this line down to 5 and provides value on the OVER.

Results: 2-3

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Check out the last five NHL Hockey Picks Newsletters:

NHL-Hockey-Picks-March-01-2009
Six of the last eight times these teams have met, the UNDER has prevailed. That includes three out of four here in Vancouver. Columbus is having trouble scoring right now (2.4 per game over their last...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-February-28-2009
The Florida Panthers have been a respectful .500 team on the road this season, but their offense of late has really slowed down to a crawl. The Panthers have managed just five goals in their last four...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-February-27-2009
Philadelphia home games have certainly been high-scoring this year but right now their defense is playing very well. THey've allowed just 2.2 goals per game over their last six. The Flyers are 26-...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-February-26-2009
Phoenix has been playing poorly and has just three wins to show for their last 13 games. Ironically, two of the last three road games have resulted in victory. The offense, which produced just 11 goal...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-February-24-2009
The Flyers have produced some excellent results on the NHL road, where most teams falter. They have now captured the win in five of their last six, and are playing with confidence. The Washington Capi...