Nhl Free Picks - January 10, 2008

We have four picks tonight...

Today's NHL Hockey Picks:

Game: Buffalo at Ottawa (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +180 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 5.4)

Buffalo has now lost seven in a row and look to avenge a 3-5 home loss to Ottawa on January 4th. Against this Ottawa defense that's alllowing 3.2 per game at home (and 4.4 per game over their last five), we look for Buffalo's offense to break out of their slump. Ottawa can certainly score but getting this kind of line on the better defense is what we like about this game. And, Buffalo is 18-10 the past two seasons on the road vs. high-scoring opponents (2.9+ goals per game). The Sabres are also 13-4 in their last 17 road games coming off two straight road losses. They rarely lose that third one. Finally, backing teams off a close 1-goal road loss vs. a team off a close 1-goal home win has produced 60% winners the past five seasons.

Pittsburgh has been en fuego, winning seven in a row while Tampa Bay has continued to struggle. This line seems a bit funny to you, doesn't it? It seems to be begging for action on the hot Penguins team vs. the lowly cold Lightning. That should set off some flags, as it does for us. We like Tampa Bay at home. First off, the Lightning are a perfect 8-0 vs. Pittsburgh the last three seasons. Vincent Lecavalier is scoring on everyone and he will get help from his defense here at home. Tampa Bay, despite being a horrendous road team, is a winning team at home, outscoring opponents by a half a goal per game. Tampa Bay can ride momentum, too. They beat the Rangers 5-3 last game and they are 10-1 the past two seasons coming off a road win by 2 goals.

The Oilers host a hot Phoenix team that has won five in a row. Edmonton has won two of their last three. Phoenix has benefited by the play of Ilya Bryzgalov in goal. The problem is they are allowing a ton of shots on goal (30.1 on the season and 32.0 over their last five). Road teams on a five game winning streak win just 40% of the time in their next game. If the home team has won 2+ straight, then that percentage drops to 32%. The total in games between these two teams has gone OVER 77% of the time the past ten years including seven of nine games the past three seasons. We like Edmonton's chances at scoring here, and Phoenix is 29-16 OVER vs. teams that allow 2.9+ goals per game over the past three seasons. We like this one to go OVER as well.

Results: 2-2

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Check out the last five NHL Hockey Picks Newsletters:

NHL-Hockey-Picks-January-08-2008
Tampa Bay has scored a total of 35 points which is second worst in the league behind LA's 32. It's no wonder they are 3-17 on the road. Away from home they are losing by 1.7 goals per game on ...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-January-07-2008
Minnesota games have averaged 6.6 goals per game over the last five. Over that same span, the Stars are allowing 3.6 goals per game. Dallas is in a scoring slump but against this Wild defense, they sh...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-January-06-2008
Buffalo has dropped five straight and looks to get healthy against the Thrashers. The Sabres' recent problem has been scoring and Atlanta is a team that gives up points. The Thrashers are allowing...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-January-05-2008
Detroit is kicking butt and taking name sthis season. They are amazingly consistent, scoring in the mid 3's on offense and allowing low 2's on defense both on the road and at home. While bette...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-January-04-2008
Buffalo has lost four straight games so... it's time to back them. Those losses were not easy games, and they allowed just 2 goals in the last three. Compare that to Ottawa's two game losing s...