NHL Hockey Premium Edition |
February 26, 2007 |
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darrell,
We swept the board yesterday going 4-0. We're now 15-6 (71%) over the past 21 picks. Three picks tonight.
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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Toronto at Montreal (7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Montreal -1.5 +220 (risk 2 to win 4.4)
Toronto is a good road team but we like Montreal's chances to get a big 2+ goal victory here. And with a 2.2-to-1 payout, we'll tkae that chance. Montreal is 18-15 at home scoring 3.2 goals per game. They are on an offensive tear of late getting 3.8 goals per game. They make the most of their power play opportunities hitting 26% on the year at home and 32% over their last five games. Toronto is susceptible to the power play having surrendered 24% conversion on the road. They give up 3.1 per game on the road. With the Canadiens puttin gup 5 vs. Washington and 6 at Nashville recently, we think they can score a lot against Toronto and come away with a 2+ goal win.
Game: Phoenix at Calgary (9:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Phoenix +256 (risk 2 to win 5.1) Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 5.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
We've fared well lately hitting some big underdogs and so we'll try another here. It's another matchup in which we get a huge underdog that has fared well against this particular opponent. Phoenix has lost four of the last seven to Calgary but they have won 22 of the last 35 overall including 11 of the last 17 here in Calgary. Phoenix showed it can beat the Flames, winning 3-2 four days ago. This is such a mismatch that Calgary may sleep-walk a bit. They are 25-7 at home after all. But, their defense is playing horribly right now. In the last two weeks, they have given up 7 to Detroit, 7 and 4 to Colorado and 4 to San Jose. Back to the matchup - Calgary is a team that is very accurate on shots, but doesn't take a lot compared to how many they give up. These are the types of teams Phoenix thrives against. The Coyotes, as bad as they are, are 7-3 this season vs. poor-possession teams that average 3 or more fewer shots on goal than they allow. We'll back Phoenix here at the 2.5-to-1 line. Given Calgary's defensive collapse of late, this game should also be relatively high-scoring. Phoenix is 18-13 OVER on the road this year and four of the last five Calgary games have gone OVER. Phoenix is 28-16 OVER vs. teamst hat score 2.9+ goals per game over the past two seasons in second-half play. Take the OVER as well.
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