NHL Hockey Premium Edition |
February 23, 2007 |
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darrell,
3-1 last night. Tonight we have three plays including two more big dogs.
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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Edmonton at Detroit (7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 1 unit on Edmonton +255 (risk 1 to win 2.6) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -111 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Edmonton has won 8 of the last 13 vs. Detroit. More surprisingly they have split with Detroit here in the Motor City - going 3-3 over the past three seasons. Now we get a huge 2.5 - to - 1 line here. The line is big because Edmonton hasn't been playing well and Detroit has been scoring like crazy, and winning. But, Edmonton is off a big win and the three losses prior to that were all by just one goal against teams much better than them (Buffalo, Toronto and Ottawa). The point is, Edmonton hasn't been getting blown out and they have historically played very well against their opponent today. Goaltender Dwayne Roloson in particular fares well against Detroit (he is 2-1 this season vs. the Redwings, allowing just 2.3 per game). Over the past two seasons, Edmonton has a winning record against winning teams while Detroit is just 6-8 at home vs. teams at 40%-50% record. Edmonton is 19-8 UNDER on the road this season while Detroit is 16-11 UNDER at home. Edmonton's a great power-play killing team (allow just 13.4% overall and an incredible 7.9% on the road - 12 goals in 151 tries). Not only does this back up our play on Edmonton here, but it favors the UNDER as well as Detroit is 11-3 UNDER this season vs. teams that allow under 15% power play goals. Edmonton is 16-8 UNDER vs. high scoring teams this year. Edmonton and the UNDER here.
Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Boston +171 (risk 2 to win 3.4)
We were on Boston at +210 vs. Toronto on Tuesday. They won and we'll back them again here as a big underdog. It seems no one has noticed that Boston has won seven of nine games. Five of those seven wins came as an underdog. They have won four straight on the road and their playoff hopes are still alive. They have beaten Tampa Bay three straight times here in Tampa Bay and six of the last seven times overall! They are playing great hockey - better than is Tampa Bay. The Lightning are scoring (4.0 over their last five games) but their defense is pourus (allowing 3.2 per game over that span). The Bruins are 8-3 this season on the road vs. teams that allow 3+ goals per game and we'll back them on this great line tonight.
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