NHL Hockey Premium Edition |
February 21, 2007 |
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darrell,
We hit Boston at +210 night helping us to a winning night. Florida, another big dog, had the lead most of the way but fell in overtime. Tonight we'll come back with another huge underdog. Remember, on these big underdogs, we won't hit 50%, but even if we hit 4 out of 10, we come out ahead. Our goal is not winning % but rather net unit profit.
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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Chicago at Detroit (7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 1 unit on Chicago +309 (risk 1 to win 3.1)
Are we nuts here? Maybe. But we think at +280, Chicago is worth a flyer. Yes, they are just 11-20 on the year on the road. But, if you look at their most recent roadtrip from 2/1 to 2/14, they won four of seven! So, something has changed for the Blackhawks. They actually score more on the road than they do at home and vs. division opponents they have scored 3.1 goals per game. Detroit, given their recent success against Chicago, could take them lightly here. The Redwings are coming off two big road wins, beating Dallas 3-1 and Phoenix 4-1. Favorites in this situation (off two 2+ goal road wins) are just 17-28 in second-half plays this season. Detroit is also just 28-28 in their last 56 games following two straight games in which they allowed under two goals. Should Detroit win this? Yes. Will they probably win? Yes. But does Chicago have a good enough shot to play it at 3-to-1 odds? You bet.
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