NHL Hockey Premium Edition |
February 19, 2007 |
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darrell,
Got the win last night but sending premium picks again to any one-day subscribers from Saturday given that catastrophe. Today we have two picks.
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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 6.5 -113 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pittsburgh's been on a tear of late and they have averaged 8.6 goals per game total scored over their last five. So why go UNDER here? These things can't continue forever. They won't be scoring 4+ against an Islanders team that gives up 2.4 per game at home. Over their last five, NY has allowed just 2.2 per game and scored only 2.0 per game. They have kept eight of their last nine opponents to 2 goals or less! So, if the home team dictates this game, it will be much lower scoring than the Penguins' recent games. New York is 18-9 UNDER at home this year and 4-1 UNDER in their last five. Over the past two seasons they are 21-11 UNDER here vs. winning teams and this season they are 8-2 UNDER vis teams that are outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ per game. Pittsburgh showed signs of slowing down last game when 5 total goals were scored and we see this one going UNDER too.
Game: Phoenix at Nashville (6:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Nashville -1.5 -109 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Love Nashville in this spot but -310 is too much to lay. So, we'll look for them to post the 2+ goal victory laying close to even money. In October, Nashville beat Phoenix here 4-1. Last year in the two meetings in Nashville, the Predators won both by 2+ goals. Phoenix gives up 3.6 goals per game on the road and over their last five they have allowed 4.6 per game. Nashville pounds in 3.9 per game at home and their defense here is stout. Nashville is 51-14 the past two seasons as a home favorite. When instilled as a huge +250 or higher underdog this year, Phoenix is just 2-5 to the +1.5 puckline.
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