Free Hockey Picks - December 05, 2009

We missed on last night's pick. Today we are on the ice with seven more premium plays including a 5-unit pick and several 4-unit selections. Over the last five weeks, we are 107-63 (63%) for +97 units.

Today's NHL Hockey Picks:

Game: Edmonton at Dallas (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 +100 (risk 4 to win 4)

The Stars aren't a team that scores a lot, or gives up a lot. They play a lot of tight games, so when the total in their games pop into the 5.5 or higher range the UNDER becomes quite appealing. That has been true in 10 of their last 11 games that were a total of 5.5 or higher, have stayed under the total. Edmonton hasn't fared well on the road. A sluggish offense producing less than 2.5 goals per game on the road isn't helping. They have played UNDER in four of their last five on the road. Dallas is now also 9-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 games vs. the Western Conference. This one looks low and tight, so I'll play the under.

The Blues have to be a confident bunch after shocking the Sharks at The Tank, something that doesn't happen much. The Blues have been a feisty team on the road all season where they are 6-2-3 through 11 road tests. This is a team that plays tight, and has done that the entire season. The Blues in their last 19 games with a total posted at 5.5 or higher, are 14-4-1 to the UNDER. The Kings have not played well at home, and actually have a losing record in their last seven here. It is because they have scored two or less in five of the games. The Blues are riding a 38-18-2 mark in a game following holding an opponent to two goals or less. I like them surging off a big win here and will go with St. Louis and the UNDER.

The Flyers went the last 21 games last year and the first 23 games this year without getting shutout. After 44 games of not being shutout, they have been blanked twice in a row, and have a grand total of just four goals in their last four games. Obviously the offense has hit a bump. The Capitals have gotten tighter around the net, after holding teams to two goals or less just five times in the first 17 games, they have done it six in the last 10 - a huge difference. On a single day of rest, they have played four of the last five UNDER. The Flyers have played seven of their last nine UNDER as the offense struggles. Not sure why this one is at six, but I'll take the value and go UNDER here.

The Sabres are winning because Ryan Miller has gotten the hot hand behind the net. The Sabres have now won four straight games, and Miller has been superb in his last five. Miller has allowed just seven goals in the last five games, so opponents are finding the net just 1.4 times per game. That will be challenging to a Rangers team really struggling to find offense. The Rangers have scored two or less goals in 11 of their last 15 games, and this doesn't look like the place to get healthy. The Rangers have also gone 35-16 to the UNDER on the road as a dog from +110 to +150, and to top it off, four of the last five in this series have gone UNDER. Hot goal-tender, cold offense spells UNDER, so that's the call here.

The New York Islanders opened the season like they finished last year, finding it hard to find the win column. They then got things turned around for a bit but have cooled some, and their total road resume isn't very pretty as they have claimed the win just four times in 17 games. The Lightning has posted just two losses at home on the season, and their four-game skid is a product of having had three of those on the road. The Islanders, despite a mini run, are now 11-40 on the road in their last 51 as a dog, and that has translated into just 2-7 in Tampa. I will go with Tampa Bay here.

The Nashville Predators are the least likely team in the NHL to get into a shootout as they are the only team that has reached five goals or more in a game just once. The Wild isn't very likely either as this will be back-to-back nights for them, a situation where they have played to the UNDER five straight times. It is also their third game in four nights where they are 7-1 to the UNDER in that situation. The Wild is also 31-15-10 to the UNDER vs. a team with a winning record. Not to be outdone, the Predators are in a third in four nights situation as well, where they have played 19-5-2 to the UNDER. The last 13 times these teams have met in Nashville, the UNDER has prevailed in nine of them. One more time, I'm backing the UNDER.

Results: 4-3

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Check out the last five NHL Hockey Picks Newsletters:

NHL-Hockey-Picks-December-04-2009
The Boston Bruins surprisingly struggled for much of the early part of the season, but look out opponents - the Bruins have caught fire! They have suffered just a single shootout loss in their last se...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-December-03-2009
The Islanders were awful a year ago, and got off to a horrific start this season. They claimed just one win in their first 10 games. In many respects, the oddsmakers are still treating them that way. ...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-December-02-2009
The Boston Bruins really struggled through their first 20 games, but their recent play has resembled last season as they have now suffered just a single shoot-out loss in their last six games. Tampa B...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-December-01-2009
The Los Angeles Kings have fared well on the road where they have a winning mark on the season at 6-4-1, virtually equaling their home mark. Most teams have a dramatic falloff on the road, but that ha...

NHL-Hockey-Picks-November-30-2009
Carolina went through their worst streak in franchise history by going winless over 14 games. They have now dropped four straight again, which makes them look like they are heading down the tube once ...