We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Pittsburgh at Ottawa (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Ottawa -184 (risk 3 to win 1.6)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 6.5 -116 (risk 2 to win 1.7)
Pittsburgh got hammered in game one, showing that they aren't really up to this. Ottawa players and coaches are well aware of their 0-6 game two playoff record following a game one win. They will break that string here to go up 2-0. Pittsburgh's inexperience showed in game one (13 players making playoff debuts). Their defense is very suspect. They averaged 3.5 per game allowed on the road during the regular season and gave up six last game. They will surely put together a better defensive performance here but will they score enough to come close? Not likely as Ottawa allows just 2.5 goals per game at home and last game their defense made a statement. Pittsburgh is 10-3 UNDER the past two seasons on the road vs. very good teams that outscore opponents by 0.5+ goals per game. They are 17-9 UNDER this season revenging a road loss and 14-7 UNDER following a road loss. They are also 12-5 UNDER after a loss by 2+ goals this season. Ottawa, after having a commanding lead ended up allowing some meaningless goals last game. They will also come out with renewed defensive energy here. Take Ottawa and the UNDER.
Game: Tampa Bay at New Jersey (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Tampa Bay +175 (risk 2 to win 3.5)
New Jersey inexplicably found offense in game one. They entered the playoffs with the lowest goal total of any team (216) but scored 5 goals in game one. We don't think they can do that again. Despite the loss, Tampa Bay has still won three of the last five games here in New Jersey including two of the last three. They are 22-20 on the road on the season and have a shot here again. The Lightning are 10-2 after allowing 3+ goals in three straight games this season and we think they make a stand here.
Game: New York Islanders at Buffalo (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Buffalo -280 (risk 4 to win 1.4)
Buffalo disposed of New York 4-1 in game one. While it may not be quite as easy in game two (Rick DiPietro is expected back for the Islanders), we again see Buffalo winning. Buffalo scored 308 goals this season and will score no matter who's in net. They are on a mission and New York is not the team to stop them. Buffalo has now won 8 of 9 vs. the Islanders and five straight here at home. They have won 53 of their last 67 home games in late-season play vs. poor defensive opponents (those allowing 30+ shots on goal per game). They are 11-1 off a home blowout win by 3+ this season. They have momentum and a much, much better team.
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