darrell,

2-2 last night for a net push. Three picks tonight.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Calgary at Detroit (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Detroit -196 (risk 4 to win 2)

Red Wings players and coaches have a bitter taste in their mouths after last year's debacle when the lost as a #1 seed to Edmonton. We believe they do whatever it takes this year to make sure they don't repeat that notorious feat. Calgary is a solid eigth-seed but they really are no match for a Detroit team that plays up to their potential, especially at home. Calgary's defense is horrendous and Detroit's is awesome. The Red Wings gave uyp just 2.1 goals per game at home this season while Calgary allowed 3.3 per game on the road. The Flames finshed the season with four straight losses, allowing 17 goals. They are 1-8 this season on the road following two straight losses. They are also 3-15 on the road vs. winning teams and 1-11 away from home vs. great offensive teams (3+ goals per game). Sure, Calgary can score but Detroit is 14-3 this season at home vs. good offensive teams (2.9+ goals per game). The only way Detroit loses this game is if they don't show up. After what happened to them last year, the chances of that have to be very slim.

New Jersey has a new coach and unlike last time they fired a coach toward the end of the season, we think it won't help them this year. Tampa Bay lost to Ottawa in the playoffs last season, a team that went on to the Stanley Cup Finals. They are only two seasons removed from a Championship and they know how to win in the playoffs with players like Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier (both over 100 points). They will have to show big in order to get past Brodeur. Tampa Bay is a big underdog here despite winning three of four against New Jersey in the regular season. The Devils managed just six total goals in those games. Tampa had a winning road record this season and a winning record as a road underdog of +100 to +200. New Jersey is not a team that takes advantage of poor opponent goaltenders. They are just 16-30 the past two seasons vs. goalies saving under 90% of shots including 0-5 vs. such goalies in late-season play. Tampa Bay has a good shot here and at this line, we get a ton of value.

Yes, this is a huge line. But well deserved. If you are looking for a sweep in this first round, this is the series to which to look. The Sabres have won seven of the last eight vs. New York including three of four this year. They won all three by 2 goals as the games weren't even close. Buffalo captured their first ever President's Trophy this season and finished with 113 points. They have four players with 30+ goals. They made it deep into the playoffs last season and this could be their year. Buffalo pours in the points at home and New York's road defense is terrible. Buffalo should coast here and get the win.