We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Vancouver at San Jose (4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Vancouver +144 (risk 2 to win 2.9)
On the surface it looks like San Jose is on a real roll, winning 11 of 13. Look closer though. Seven of those wins came vs. the worst teams in the NHL (all under .500). The real story is their games at home vs. teams that have scored 100+. Against these teams, they have not covered the -1.5 puck line since January 4th! They are not only 0-6 against the -1.5, they are 0-6 SU! In those games they were outscored 14-23. Vancouver since December 19th is 6-1 vs 100+ point teams to the +1.5 on the road, breaking even in goals 16-16. Four of the seven games were outright wins. We have tremendous value on this game. San Jose has been losing at home to high-caliber teams while Vancouver has been winning on the road vs. these same teams. So we have them at +144 in a 10-3 recent history situation, and also 12-1 in a +1.5 -210 situation.
Game: Florida at Carolina (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida +127 (risk 3 to win 3.8)
Both of these teams are out of the playoffs. Carolina has apparently packed it in after the dissapointment of missing the postseason after winning the Stanley Cup. They showed absolutely nothing last night in a very winnable game vs. Atlanta, losing by 3 goals. They've dropped five of six. Tonight they are favored and we'll take advantage of the value. Florida has not given up as they've won four of six with both losses coming by just one goal each. The Panthers are just 5-10 at home as a favorite of -100 to -150. Take the dog here.
Game: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -105 (risk 3 to win 2.9)
Atlanta locked up the division title last night thanks to a win and a Tampa Bay loss. They are locked into the third seed while Tampa Bay has something to play for. A loss probably lands them at a lower seed than a win. This is a team that can win on the road as they've won 14 of their last 22 away from home. That includes a stellar 5-1 mark vs. winning teams. Take the more motivated team here.
Game: Montreal at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 6 -121 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Montreal road games have gone UNDER 20 of 34 times this season while Toronto home games have gone UNDER 22 of 38 times. The Canadiens are 11-4 UNDER on the road this year vs. losing teams. They are also 25-11 UNDER on the road in the final month of the season over the past decade.
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