Nfl Favorites - September 30, 2007
We went 3-1-1 last week (although many got Houston at 6.5 for a 4-1 week). Atlanta's loss killed a perfect week (read our rant on that below). On the season we're at 61% (20-13).
Five picks on Sunday...
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Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Green Bay at Minnesota (Sunday 9/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +1.5
The Packers are off to a 3-0 start and Brett Favre has been outstanding so far. He's looked like the Favre of old and last week tied Dan Marino last week for the most career TD passes at 420. He's the talk of the town (and ESPN, CBS, ABC and NBC). It's a great storyline for the talking suits, but we aren't buying it wholesale just yet. The Eagles gift wrapped game one at Lambeau and the Packers barely could muster enough to win by 3. In week two, the Giants were completely banged-up, lost on defense, and the Pack won a game they should of won against a bad team. They then go on to beat San Diego at home , and now they have everyone's attention. The problem is, under Norv Turner, this San Diego team is frankly not very good yet. LT is running like an old man so far and until they make some wholesale changes, the Chargers could keep losing. There is one wart on this Packers team that most seem to be glossing over, and it doesn't bode well long-term for the Pack. They have no ground attack at all! They have managed just 171 yards in three games and sooner or later, if you can't run in this league, you stop winning. The fact is all the teams the Packers have beaten have a losing record, and two of those were home games. The Packers under Favre have always been a nightmare playing in domes. Favre on his career is 14-30 ATS inside. They rank just 18th on offense and 15th on defense, so their 3-0 record and the numbers don't match! In the NFL, defenses adjust. Sometimes it takes a bit of time, but they catch on. The forumla for beating Green Bay has become glaringly clear - stop the pass. We believe Minnesota will bring it again Favre and force him into tough situations. If Green Bay can't run, and Minnesota takes away the pass, the Pack is in trouble. The Vikings have recorded 11 sacks and with no running game, they are going to put a lot of pressure on Favre, who often makes big mistakes under pressure and on the road. Kelly Holcomb stabilizes the QB position for Minnesota and Adrien Peterson has been a great #1 draft pick. Peterson has single-handedly put up almost double the Packers entire rushing output. And, he is picking up 20 yards per reception out of the backfield. The dog is 14-2 in the last 16 in this series and Minnesota at home as a dog is 20-8 in their last 28. We will ride the Vikings here.
Game: Houston at Atlanta (Sunday 9/30 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +3Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 39.5 -110
The Texans have started 2-1 and are suddenly on the radar as evidenced by the fact that they are favored on the road. That's right - the Texans are laying it on the road! We believe in Houston and Shaub but, this week they are officially overrated after their strong start. As far as Atlanta is concerned, the DeAngelo Hall 67-penalty-yards (on a single drive) fiasco will likely go down as the most amazing stat of the season. Atlanta outgained Carolina 442-313 and could have easily won last week. They lost though and as a result, they are a bit underrated. Joey Harrington has actually done much better than many expected. He comes in with a superb QB rating of 90.6 with just two INTs. Warrick Dunn has gotten most of the workload in the backfield, but don't be surprised if the ball winds up in Jerious Norwood's hands more frequently this week. The more he touches it, the better the outcome for Atlanta. Norwood has carried 20 times for 4.5 yards per carry. He has also caught six passes at 12 yards per catch. Norwood is also returning kicks. He has brought one back 46 yards already and he may break one here. Matt Schaub has been the difference for Houston, but he will be without his two biggest weapons in Andre Johnson and Ahman Green. The loss of Green is significant because no one else has been able to run the ball. The one problem Houston has is they are not a deep team, and have a lot of banged up players right now. Houston has lost 7 of 10 in the role of a favorite, and this is going to be a hungry Atlanta team this week. The Faclons are a little better than most think and in desparate need of a win, and getting a field goal at home. The UNDER has hit in 10 of the last 12 Atlanta home games. Expect Houston's offense to struggle today and for Atlanta to cover and the game to go UNDER the total.
Game: Oakland at Miami (Sunday 9/30 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Miami -4
Since when is an 0-3 team favored by more than a field goal? Since when is there actual line value on that favored loser? When they're playing the Raiders at home of course! The Dolphins really aren't that bad (have lost two of three by a FG). The Raiders have gotten some attention in recent weeks. Yes, they went on the road and took Denver to OT and then came back and beat Cleveland. But we don't believe they are tremendously improved over last year's 2-win team. The Broncos always struggle with Oakland and got caught thinking the game was over at 17-3. They had 26 first downs vs. 11 for Oakland and had outgained the Raiders 441 to 253. And Cleveland is, well, Cleveland. Remember this same Raider team was down to the Lions 17-0 before losing by 15. And they have dropped 12 straight road games by an average of 15.5 points per game! Last week they lost QB Josh McCown, who made some mistakes but moved the team. That means Dante Culpepper will be at QB for Oakland. Culpepper got all of four starts with Miami last year and was ineffective. Without Randy Moss to huck the ball deep to, Culpepper has never been more than an average QB. Miami is winless but they have scored a lot more this year with Trent Green directing the offense (they rank #14 in the NFL). Despite a 2-14 record, Oakland's defense last year was awesome. This year it has regressed as they sit near the bottom of the NFL at #27. Miami has a good history against Oakland, as they have won and covered the last six meetings. The Raiders must make the coast-to-coast trip to Miami, where teams playing on the early slate have covered just 40% of the time in the past five years. These Raiders are just 12-23 ATS overall the past three seasons. We like Miami to notch their first win of the season, and get the cover.
Game: Seattle at San Francisco (Sunday 9/30 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Seattle -2
San Francisco stands at 2-1 but are they that good? The numbers would say no. Frank Gore, who ripped through defenses last year, is finding the going a bit more difficult this season. He has rushed for just 3.4 yards per carry. It has left the Niners with an offense producing very little, ranked 31st in the league. Alex Smith has hit just 51.8% of his passes, and has only found the endzone once. The Niners defense is below the middle of the pack at #19, and they have been shredded on the ground. Arizona churned out 161 and last week Pittsburgh pounded them for 205 on the ground. Concerning for San Francisco is the fact that they aren't controlling the clock (27:26 average time of possession). That bodes well for a Seattle team that has covered 16 of their last 21 games vs. teams with a TOP of less than 28 minutes per game. Last year this 49ers team only gave up 150+ yards rushing three times. They did not cover any of the games that followed after giving up 150+. Gore shredded this Seahawks defense last year so you can bet they have devised a plan not to allow that again this season. Shaun Alexander will be playing with a broken bone in his hand, but he seems to have gained the form of two years ago, and he will be the key in this one. Matt Hasselback has found the endzone five times already, completing 65% of his tosses. That combination will put a lot of pressure on the San Francisco defense. Teams with a dual threat (like Pittsburgh last week and Seattle this week) are going to cause a lot of trouble for the Niners this year. This is a pivital game, and it isn't likely that the Seahawks will be a no-show. They own this division until someone takes it from them and they want to make a statement here that the time has not yet come! They came out of week three very healthy, and we expect them to come away victorious on the road in this one.
Results: 2-3
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-September-24-2007
What's wrong with the Saints? Last year this team nearly made it to the Super Bowl and their offense was unstoppable. This year they are 0-2, scoring 12 points per game and allowing 36 per game. A...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-20-2007
Tampa Bay, 4-12 last season, is off to a 1-1 start and coming off a big win over the Saints last Sunday. They shut out New Orleans' once potent offense for nearly three full quarters. Pop Qui...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-17-2007
This line is +7 at some books and +6.5 at others. We recommend you get it at 7 even if that means at your book you have to buy a half point. Let's face it. The Eagles didn't look good last wee...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-14-2007
It is easy to look back on the Packers 16-13 opening week at Lambeau and say the wrong team won. The Packers had just 10 first downs and only once drove into Eagle territory, settling for a 37 yard FG...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-05-2007
The NFL regular season kicks-off tonight in a battle between two big-time heavyweights. The Superbowl Champion Colts host the upstart Saints. This match-up features two of the most potent offense...
