Pro Football Predictions - September 28, 2009
Ouch. Yesterday was horrific and for that I am very sorry. I know that was painful. Underdogs went just 5-10 overall yesterday and that kind of week really hurts an underdog bettor like me. Unfortunately, I couldn't even get on any of the few underdog winners.
These things happen during the course of a season. In fact, it's almost deja vu from last season. Last season I had my best NFL season ever, hitting nearly 60% for the entire year and delivering over 60% bankroll growth overall. But, we had a week like this too as I went 1-6 in week three. We recovered from that bad week last season in a big way, and I expect to do the same this season. Remember, I'm not as good as the 6-1 week one performance and I'm not as bad as yesterday would indicate. Over the course of the entire season, I expect to hit my long term average of 55-59%. Yesterday's losses dropped us to 28-25 for +3.2 units over the past five weeks. Tonight I'm going with two picks.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Carolina at Dallas (Monday 9/28 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Carolina +9 (-120) (risk 4 to win 3.3)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Cowboys have displayed a potent running attack in the first two games, generating nearly 7 yards per carry. They are likely to be without their best running back, Marion Barber, for this one. If he plays he won't be up to full speed as he's nursing a quadriceps injury. Barber has accounted for 32 of the 49 Dallas carries on the season. Felix Jones has done a great job complimenting Barber, but it is one thing to get carries when the key is on Barber and it is another when you become the featured back. That puts extra pressure on Tony Romo, who is off a terrible performance vs. New York last week (29.6 passer rating). Romo has completed just 51% of his passes this season, with 4 TD's and 3 INT's. However, the biggest concern for Dallas has to be their defense. They've allowed nearly 900 yards in two games and they haven't been able to get any pressure on the quarterback. Even with DeMarcus Ware present, they have yet to record a sack in their first two games. Jake Delhomme's biggest problems come with pressure. If he's not under the heat, he can have success tonight given the fact that the Cowboys secondary has been torched for over 300 yards per game. All in all, Dallas has a lot of question marks and that's not the type of team on which you want to be laying a ton of points. The Panthers running game is good, but it was negated at Philly when they fell behind 31-7 in the second quarter, and again vs. the Falcons when they trailed 28-13. I would expect them to come out running the ball here, to set up play action for Delhomme. After a forgetful playoff season opener, Delhomme bounced back with over 300 yards vs the Falcons last week. Tony Romo and the Cowboys, excluding the emotional Thanksgiving Day games, are just 4-10 ATS covering a TD or more in their last 14, and Jake Delhomme has done a great job on the road, where he has led Carolina to a 29-17 ATS mark. The Panthers have gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a road loss to a division rival. As an underdog, Delhomme is 23-10 ATS in all games. I like Carolina to cover this big number. I also like the UNDER. While a lot may be made of the struggling defenses here, both these teams are protecting QB's with bruised egos right now, and this has the look of two teams that will try and run it on each other extensively. This also fits into a week three totals system that has produced over 60% winners since 1983, that is live and on the UNDER here. Panthers have been an "early" under team, with a 22-10-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 34 September games. And, the Cowboys have played 46-21-3 to the UNDER in their last 70 games against a team with a losing record. The points are tainted high for America's team in prime time, and I expect this one to come in UNDER the total.
Results: 1-1
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-September-25-2009
The Green Bay Packers have stumbled out of the gate. They were supposed to beat Chicago in week one and did. But it required a heroic last minute thouchdown pass. Then, they lost outright last week to...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-21-2009
While this isn't being discussed, I think here should be some concern in Indianapolis about the "mighty" Colts offense. Don't get me wrong. This is still an excellent offen...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-18-2009
There was a lot to take in after watching the Patriots last week. Through nearly the entire game, the Bills beat them on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady looked very rusty for most of the game, uncha...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-14-2009
The Patriots welcome back Tom Brady at QB here, and everyone seems to think that it will be business as usual for the Pats. It's Super Bowl or bust again, right? A full 79% of the public is bettin...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-10-2009
The 2009-10 NFL season will open without Tony Dungy at the helm of a team for the first time in over a decade. Dungy established himself as one of the all-time greats, winning at Tampa ...
