|
Nflpicks - September 28, 2008We had a rough Sunday last week but ended with a winner on Monday night to carry some momentum into week four. This week we have six Sunday selections. Good luck to you!  Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Houston at Jacksonville (Sunday 9/28 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Houston +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Jacksonville found themselves in a desperate situation last week, looking down the barrel of 0-3 and on the road. They stepped up big time, and left alot on the field coming away with a last second win on a long FG. Houston, after going 8-8 last year has playoff aspirations themselves. They find themselves in the exact same spot as Jacksonville this week, so expect a big effort here from the Texans. Jacksonville will likely have a difficult time matching the intensity they played with last week, and Houston will bring everything they have. That makes the points here very attractive. Dependable Andre Johnson dropped two balls that were likely TDs last week, and Matt Schaub is likely to get better protection here. Houston has faced two good defenses in Pittsburgh and Tennessee that have 21 combined sacks, while the Jags have totaled just five. Houston's offense is much better that what we have seen. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are 2nd and 5th against the run to the Jags 19th. They are both top five against the pass, while the Jags are 26th. Houston has covered 12 of their last 15 road games following back-to-back losses. Clearly the points are there to be had for Houston, and I expect them to stay within the inflated number. Game: Green Bay at Tampa Bay (Sunday 9/28 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Green Bay +1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Green Bay is a dog here? What?!? How soon people forget the Packers are 19-4 SU in their last 23 regular season games, and 19-0 SU vs teams not named Dallas or Chicago! I say this because at the beginning of the season most thought without Favre the Packers were headed south. That certainly has not been the case as Aaron Rodgers has simply shined. To this point of the season (yes, it's still early), he has been an upgrade at QB with a 102.9 rating and no INTs. To me, this guy looks to be for real. I say that not just based on the numbers. Watch him play, he works through his progressions like a vet, utilizing many different weapons, making it very difficult on opposing defenses. The emergence of Greg Jennings at wideout gives the Packers top recievers on both sides of the field. The Bucs defense is much softer than it has been in many years, and the only legit QB they have seen this season was Drew Brees who lit them up for 343 yards and three TDs. Brian Greise was run out of Chicago (and Denver before that) for a reason. He makes too many mistakes. He did it last week, throwing two INTs that almost cost the Bucs the game. Against a better opponent like Green Bay, it will. Don't be fooled - Brian Griese is not a savior, nor a long-term starting QB in this league. The difference between these teams is that Green Bay and Rodgers take care of the ball and in a close game, mistakes are deadly. Greise has shown a penchant for delivering those mistakes time and time again. I'll go with the Packers and Rodgers, over Griese. The Pack are still surprisingly under the radar despite winning 19 straight vs all but two teams and posting a 13-4 ATS mark on the road under their current coach. We get exceptional value on them thanks to their loss to a superb Dallas team last week. Wrong team favored in this one. Game: San Francisco at New Orleans (Sunday 9/28 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 Based on the first three games played by each of these two teams, this looks like a game that should be a high scoring affair, but I disagree. The Saints have played against some poor defenses, and the Niners have not been, nor are they ready to be, a high scoring team on the road. Yes, they got 33 in OT vs. Seattle. But that is just one game. Last year they had 37 against Arizona, also in OT, and scored just 12 ppg in their other seven road games. The points won't come as easy for the Saints this week either, as they are going to face a credible defense for the first time this season. Their first three games were against defenses that average 23rd in the league. The Niners have stepped things up as through three games they are now a top 10 defense. Under Mike Nolan, this Niners team is 11-3 UNDER to a total above 42 up to 49. They are also a perfect 7-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams (those averaging 235+ ypg). I think this game gets some scoring, but at the highest posted total of the week, I think it falls short expectations. Game: Arizona at New York Jets (Sunday 9/28 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 44.5 -110 The Jets have been slow to open up the playbook for Brett Favre as he continues to learn the playbook and sets the Jets use. Last week Mangini opened up the Jets offense, though. Favre threw just 48 passes the first two weeks, and he threw 42 last week alone. That does two things. Favre gets hot and delivers TDs, but he also finds a way to send one in the other direction for a pick-6 more frequently than he or the Jets would like. Kurt Warner is healthy, and he is having a year like his Super Bowl year in St. Louis. He has already thrown for 750 yards and six TDs with just one INT. It's no wonder he's playing superb as he has two deadly recievers in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. These two have already caught 33 passes for 540 yards and six TDs between them. If an offensive line can give Warner time, he's as good as anyone. The Jets secondary was picked apart by Phillip Rivers last week, and I expect the same in this one. Both teams should be able to move the ball, and I look for this one to go OVER the total. Results: 3-2 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-September-22-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-18-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-12-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-08-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-04-2008 |
     RSS
FEEDS
Sports Picks
HOME
TO: |
