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Nfl Free Weekly Picks - September 27, 2009After going 6-1 in week one, we went 5-2 last Sunday before missing with Miami on Monday night (unbelievable given their 3-to-1 time of possession advantage). Over the past five weeks in the NFL, we are 28-19 (60%) for +21.2 units. This week I have six Sunday picks...
 Today's NFL Football Picks: The Green Bay Packers have stumbled out of the gate. They were supposed to beat Chicago in week one and did. But it required a heroic last minute thouchdown pass. Then, they lost outright last week to Cincinnati as a 9 point favorite, reaching a real low. They are really having problems on their offensive line. Last week the Bengals got to Aaron Rodgers seven times and Rodgers has yet to get in-synch this season. He has now been sacked 10 times on the young season, and seeing LT Chad Clifton carried off the field with an ankle injury in the third quarter won't help things. You really have to question if a team is overrated when they are a double-digit favorite at home, get a pick-six in the game, and still lose the game outright by seven points. It certainly isn't a team on which I feel comfortable laying a TD on the road. The Packers may yet have a superb season, but they need to prove they are worthy of the big favorite role before I back them there. The Rams' offense has been missing the first two weeks, but the defense has been very respectable considering the fact that they are spending most of the time on the field. They kept the Redskins out of the end zone on the road last week. If not for a late fumble inside the Skins redzone, the Rams would have likely won that game. The turnover (and subsequent loss) helped mask the fact that the Rams' offense actually showed signs of life in that game. They had three drives of 10+ plays and they were 50% on third-down conversions. Yes, the St. Louis offense has issues, but they aren't as bad as people think. The public is lining up on the Packers like they already know the final score, with nearly 80% on them. This is supposed to be a bounce-back week for them. Maybe they forgot that the Rams lost three of their last four road games a year ago by 24 points, 19, and 44 points, but then came home and lost to the Niners by 1 point, Seattle by 3, and Maimi by 4, and then beat the Cowboys here. This is just too many points for a team on the road that can't keep defenders out of their backfield.Game: New York Giants at Tampa Bay (Sunday 9/27 1:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) This one should be easy for the Giants, right? Not so fast. The Giants have opened the season by laying it all on the line in two division games, looking impressive and going 2-0. It will be difficult for them to get revved up on the road and play against an 0-2 struggling Tampa team. The Giants' 2-0 record didn't come without a price. They have had to put perhaps their best DB on IR in Kenny Phillips, and they already have an ailing Aaron Ross, and a host of other nagging injuries to key players. Justin Tuck is also likely out for this game (why play him, really?). This could easily be a breather game for the Giants after two tough division games to open the season. The injuries result in lack of depth and that could be an issue in the heat and humidity in Tampa as gametime temperatures are projected to be in the low 90s. The Bucs are 10-2 ATS as a home dog from 3.5-10 in their last 12 games. This one has everyone piling on the Giants who have looked great in their first two against good teams, while Tampa has started 0-2. But the situation makes Bucs a desperate team, needing the game and playing at home for the first time. Everything on the surface points to an easy Giants victory but I see it differently. I'm going with Tampa Bay in this one.Game: Cleveland at Baltimore (Sunday 9/27 1:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Cleveland +13.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) These two teams have opened the season heading in opposite directions and it's not much of a surprise. The Ravens stand at 2-0 and atop ESPN's power rankings while the Browns come in at 0-2 near the bottom. I can hear the general betting public now, "How will the Browns even score a point in this game?" Over 70% of the public has lined up behind the huge favorite here. Not so fast my friend. This is a sandwich game for the Ravens. They went out to the West Coast and beat the Chargers last week and on deck for them are the New Endgland Patriots. It would not be a surpprise to see the Ravens, fat and happy, unfocused for this one. I mean how can they get up for a game vs. the Browns? Cleveland, meanwhile, has to be feeling a sense of urgency coming into this game. Their season is basically on the line as an 0-3 start would be devastating. Teams in this spot have been mighty potent in the NFL and as bad as they look, they come out with their best game after a poor first two weeks for the very reason stated above - their season is on the line. Teams that have lost straight up and ATS in both week one and week two, have come back in week three with their best effort, hitting at a 68% clip over the past five years. The worse the game looks, the better the results as these same teams, when posted as an underdog of 12 or more, have been a perfect 8-0 in recent years! There is no doubt that the Ravens are far ahead of the Browns on both sides of the ball, so I won't try to argue otherwise. But betting the NFL based on stats will lead you to the poorhouse. Don't follow the sheep. The Browns will bring whatever they have here and history has shown that's enough to get the cover.Game: New Orleans at Buffalo (Sunday 9/27 4:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Saints are off to a flying start at 2-0, scoring 93 points in the process. Fantasy football owners of Drew Brees are already making room on their mantle for their league's trophy. The Saints beat a hapless Detroit team and an Eagles team without a QB, so I'm not jumping on the bandwagon just yet. Even if I was ready to hop on board, there wouldn't be room for me as those enamored with high-octane offense and spotless win-loss records are filling up the bandwagon quickly. You know what that means? Get off! The Bills suffered a horrible loss to New England by one point in the opener, but to their credit they came back strong against Tampa Bay. This team is better than most people think and they are are never an easy out at home (just ask New England). Coach Dick Juaron has posted a 15-3 ATS mark at home in non-conference games. The Bills have also been a top home dog team with an 8-4 ATS mark. Drew Brees is getting all the headlines, but we have to note that Bills QB Trent Edwards finally has some weapons at his disposal, and last week hit Lee Evans for a 32-yard TD and Terrell Ownes for a 43-yarder. While the Bills secondary has given up a lot of yards, teams have been forced to the air because they have gotten leads in both games. The good news is that the Bills have had a pick-six in each of their first two games. The Saints' pass defense has been its usual futile self as they rank No. 29 against the pass. With the Bills piling up 438 yards of offense last week, they should be able to move the ball against the Saints. The public loves a scoring team and it has driven this line up to +6, with 76% backing the Saints on the road. That is just too many points for an improving Bills team that has proven to be very tough in this spot at home.Game: Miami at San Diego (Sunday 9/27 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Miami +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Anyone that watched the Dolphins last week against the Colts on Monday night had to come away wondering how they lost. They had 27 first downs to the Colts 14. They ran 82 plays to the Colts 34. And, they had the largest time of possession advantage I can remember in an NFL game at 45:07 to 14:53. Before Monday night, no team has ever lost a game with those kind of advantages. Hey, flukes happen, and that was one of them (thanks to a guy named Peyton). The reality is that Miami dominated that game like few NFL games are dominated, and in the end, it's a reason to believe int he potential of this 0-2 team. The Chargers must be wondering something similar as Phillip Rivers threw for a career-high 436 yards against the vaunted defense of the Ravens at home, and it wasn't good enough for the win. It is the same old story for the Chargers - they very often come away from a game thinking they did not play up to their ability as this team continues to underachieve. They have bigger problems at the moment as the injuries to key players RB Tomlinson, NT Jamal Williams and C Nick Hardwick are likely to keep them out against the Dolphins. I would look for the Dolphins to try and take advantage of the right side of the Chargers offensive line, something Baltimore didn't attack, and put pressure on Rivers. The Dolphins have a potent running attack, which opens the door for game manager Chad Pennington to find Ted Ginn, who has 13 receptions. Under Tony Sparano, the Fins have yet to lose a road game ATS vs. AFC opponents in six attempts. The Dolphins find themselves in the same spot they were a year ago at 0-2 and desperate for a win. They will bring all they have here, looking to take out some frustrations from Monday night and salvage a season, and it will be enough to stay inside the number.Game: Denver at Oakland (Sunday 9/27 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Oakland +2 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8) It is hard for the oddsmakers to put an accurate line up for this game. Oakland has been horrible for a long time and Denver has been great for a long time. Denver was supposed to be bad this season, but they have started 2-0. So what to make of this game? Don't let the records fool you. Oakland is 1-1 but very easily could be 2-0 as they outplayed San Diego in their opener but still lost. In that game, the Raiders outgained the Chargers, and had a turnover disadvantage and lost by just four as the Chargers scored with 18 seconds left for the win. Denver is 2-0 but should be 1-1. The truth is, these teams are heading in opposite directions. DeMarcus Russell will come into this one with an extra hop in his step as he guided the Raiders to a late fourth quarter drive to snatch victory from defeat on the road against the Chiefs. It is easy to look at how badly the Raiders were outplayed in that game as the Chiefs piled up the yards, out-gaining the Raiders 409-166. But let's look at the bright side. They won! It is a game that in the past the Raiders would have lost by three TDs. But this is a different Raider team and doing that on the road vs. a division foe is impressive. They are still struggling to find an identity and to find ways to be consistent. But, they are making strides. Last week the Broncos dominated a Browns team that looked horrible and self destructed on the road. They now have to travel in-division and Oakland is still way under the radar as they are much better than people think. Getting them as home dog vs. an unproven team provides for value. Oakland has won five of the last six in this series ATS and the Broncos are just 3-15 ATS over the past three seasons in division games. The Broncos are also 3-12 ATS over that span when coming off a win including 0-8 off a home win! They are also 1-10 ATS after gaining 400+ yards in a game. I like the live, underrated home dog here. NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-September-21-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-18-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-14-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-10-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-02-2009 |
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