Expert Football Free Pick - September 24, 2007
Hopefully you went 4-1 yesterday on the picks. Most folks got Houston +6.5 although we are grading it at +6 for a push (for a 3-1-1 day) because that was the line at the time we sent out the picks on Thursday. Overall we are 20-13 (61%) now on the season.
Tonight we don't have an official pick (tough game to call in our opinion). But, we do have some thoughts that may help you out... Good luck!
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Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Tennessee at New Orleans (Monday 9/24 8:30 PM Eastern)
What's wrong with the Saints? Last year this team nearly made it to the Super Bowl and their offense was unstoppable. This year they are 0-2, scoring 12 points per game and allowing 36 per game. As we mentioned in our newsletter on Thursday, 0-2 teams rarely make it to the playoffs (9.1% of the time). As bad as it is for the Saints now, it could get much much worse. Winless teams after week three almost never sniff the playoffs. So, this is obviously a critical game for the Saints. The first two games for them were on the road. They return home here to what was a very good place for them last season. It's hard to forget their Monday Night home opener last year in whcih they crushed the Falcons thanks to an electric and emotional atmosphere. That was the first home game following Hurricane Katrina and this won't be quite the same atmosphere. But it should be quite a boost for a team that desperately needs one. Has the talent dissappeared from this team over the offseason? No. Has the coaching staff changed? No. We think New Orleans could break out of their slump in this game, find their offense, and roll to a big victory behind the emotional boost gained from their home crowd. They are still much more talented than the Titans. If three weeks ago we asked you guess what this line would be, you would have given the Saints at least a touchdown. Now they are laying just four points. But, there are still too many question marks four us to back the Saints confidently here. While you can give the Saints a "pass" for their loss to Indianapolis in Indy in week one, it's not so easy to overlook their crushing defeat at the hands of Tampa Bay in week two. The Bucs, no NFL powerhouse, laid a big time beat-down on a team that really needed a win. That's very concerning. And, how can you go against Tennessee as an underdog? With Vince Young at the helm, this team somehow finds ways to stay close in nearly every game. Even against superior competition, it seems we always find the ball in Vince Young's hands late with a chance to win the game. Tennessee has won seven games in a row and covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games! If the Titans can stay within two points of Indy last week, why not this week vs. New Orleans (a team Indy beat 41-10)? And, despite New Orleans' great 2006 season, they were just 1-5 ATS as home chalk. In the Jeff Fisher era, the Titans are 49-36 ATS as an underdog and 26-13 ATS in non conference games. Our computer matchup for this game has New Orleans winning by 4 points which is exactly this spread. We think anything could happen here, leading to no real betting edge here. As such, we are going to pass on this game. Good luck to you.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-September-20-2007
Tampa Bay, 4-12 last season, is off to a 1-1 start and coming off a big win over the Saints last Sunday. They shut out New Orleans' once potent offense for nearly three full quarters. Pop Qui...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-17-2007
This line is +7 at some books and +6.5 at others. We recommend you get it at 7 even if that means at your book you have to buy a half point. Let's face it. The Eagles didn't look good last wee...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-14-2007
It is easy to look back on the Packers 16-13 opening week at Lambeau and say the wrong team won. The Packers had just 10 first downs and only once drove into Eagle territory, settling for a 37 yard FG...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-05-2007
The NFL regular season kicks-off tonight in a battle between two big-time heavyweights. The Superbowl Champion Colts host the upstart Saints. This match-up features two of the most potent offense...
NFL-Football-Picks-August-29-2007
Andy Reid was 10-18 in preseason games coming into this year. The Eagles have gone 1-2 thus far to drop him to 11-20 lifetime (that's 35%). Yet the Eagles are favorites here? Hmmm. But it gets bet...
