darrell,

Another winning week last week puts us at 6-3 for the regular season so far. We got the easy win on the Tampa Bay / Atlanta UNDER and with Seattle cruising to a cover. Green Bay and Brett Favre spoiled the perfect week.

This week we have five Sunday picks.

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	UNITS
NFL	6-3 last 9 picks	67%	+3
CFB	11-5 last 16 picks	69%	+6
MLB	24-12 last 36 picks	67%	+2.3
NHL	208-140 last season	60%	+24.6
CBB	174-128 last season	58%	+46
NBA	207-197 last season	51%	+10
TOTAL			+91.9

Check out my NFL Computer Predictions which predict every game on the board. NOTE: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

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Good luck to you...

Game: Washington at Houston (Sunday 9/24 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Washington -4

What to make of Washington? Prior to the preseason they were picked as Super Bowl contenders. After a horrible preseason, many people had stuck a fork in them. They lose in week one at home vs. Minnesota and then get blown out by Dallas last week. Ouch. Needless to say they are desparate for a win. Houston is also winless but expectations are much lower. Redskin players and coaches are in panic mode and I think they come to play this week. The return of Clinton Portis is HUGE. Without him this offense has been unable to move the ball. Not only will he be able to eat up yards on the ground, but Houston's offense won't be able to pin their ears back and go after QB Mark Brunnell who has felt way too much pressure without Portis. He was sacked six times by the Cowboys. Houston has shown little improvement under Gary Kubiak. Their offensive line, already doing a poor job at protecting QB David Carr, took a big hit last week when they lost left tackle Charles Spencer with a broken leg. Center Mike Flanagan has a hurt left foot and is listed as questionable for this game. If he isn't 100% it could be a very long day for Carr and an offense that has been no better than Washington's. And no running back has emerged to take the lead as Wali Lundy, Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado have all been mediocre. Look for the Redskins to bounce back in a big way this week.

As I stated in my preseason over/under predictions, I don't think the Jets were going to be as bad as many people thought this season. So far they have looked much better than they did in 2005. They beat the Titans on the road by 7 in week one. They lost by a touchdown to New England last week but I can't fault them for that. They didn't give up and lay down against the Patriots - something you like to see in an underdog. They fought back from 24 points down to make it close. Chad Pennington has come out and shown that starting him was the right call by Eric Mangini. He's thrown for 625 yards and four touchdowns. Look for newly acquired Kevin Barlow to get the starting call this week at RB in an effort to get something going there. Buffalo's off an upset win over Miami. But so what? Miami apparently stinks. I've never been a big believer in Culpepper without Randy Moss and he's showing that without Moss to heave 50 yard bombs to, he's an average quarterback. The Bills offense, despite their win last week, is still very weak. JP Losman has thrown for only 247 total yards. Buffalo's offense is averaging just 16.5 points per game and as such, don't think they have any business laying 6 points. Jets plus the points.

What a performance by Jacksonville on Monday night. This team looks to be for real. I do think they are improved but I think they are in a tough spot here. Let's not get too caught up in how good Jacksonville has been to forget about the Colts. These guys are still the most feared team in the league. They beat the Giants in a tough road test in week one and dismantled Houston last week putting up 43 points. Jacksonville was very "up" for Monday Night's game as they should have been. The Super Bowl champs came to town. But now, the Jags are off a short week and must travel to Indinapolis - a tough place to play. It is very hard to get up to peak emotional level two weeks in a row and despite this being an important game for the Jags, it can't compare to last week and I think the Jags will suffer a minor letdown. And you can bet Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts offense will be fired up to take on a team that shutout the Steelers last week. Joseph Addai is starting to emerge and if he can fill Edge's shoes, this offense again will be nearly unstoppable. Also lost in the hoopla of Monday Night's results was that the Jags struggled offensively. They put up just 3 field goals. Sure, the Colts will have a tough time running the ball on Sunday but Manning is going to throw for a few touchdowns and unless Jacksonville can score touchdowns, they are in for a long day. When Indy's offense is "on" you had better look out. They are 11-3 ATS the last three seasons following two straight games in which they scored 25+ points. The Colts always start strong having gone 12-4 ATS during the first month of the season under Dungy. I look for the Colts to pour it on and for Jacksonville to be slightly flat and struggle to keep up. Colts minus the points here.

San Francisco was the worst defensive team in the league last season. Against Arizona in week one, they looked like they wanted to lay claim to it again this year as they gave up 34 to Arizona. Last week they held the Rams to 13 points and got a win but I don't think they've really improved that much on defense. I do think they have improved on offenese a bit with Alex Smith having a season under his belt. He's completely 55% of his passes so far and thrown for two touchdowns without an interception. Frank Gore has emerged as a force thus far (307 yards and three TDs). The Niners are averaging 23.5 per game and here's something you probably didn't know: they are leading the league in yards per play at 6.7! The Eagles meanwhile lead the league in yards per game (446) and trail only San Francisco and the Giants in yards per play. Donovan McNabb is on. He's led his team to two straight 24 point performances. He's thrown for 664 yeards and 5 touchdowns in two games and has looked very comfortable and steady. The same can't be said for the Eagles defense. They squandered a 17 point lead last week to lose the game. In that game they lost Pro Bowl defensive end Jevon Kearse who is an integral part of a defense that lives on the blitz. Bottom line here is that we have an improved SF offense with a QB who is avoiding mistakes - an offense that is producing. We have a Philly offense playing very well with something to prove ("we don't need TO"). And, we have one really bad defense (SF) and another that is reeling a bit and just lost a key player. Take the OVER.

Mike Shanahan has dug himself a nice little hole that is going to be tough to get out of. He (against the better judgement of just about everyone), put his confidence in Jake Plummer. He put all his eggs in that basket this season as there is no viable backup. And, that basket has some pretty big holes. While a team like Tennessee can throw in the rookie QB and prepare for next year, Denver fans were expecting a Super Bowl run this year. If Jake continues to perform poorly, what is Shanahan to do? I dunno. Jake never did well in Arizona. He had one good season last year in Denver but one thing is obvious - his mental toughness is lacking. He makes too many mistakes and if pressure is on, he's horrible. Last year Denver's running game built up big leads and Jake can protect them. But put the game on his shoulders and you are playing with fire. That being said, this team getting a full touchdown is a gift. I think the public is overreacting to Denver's poor start and the Broncos will not just lay down. The line has moved from -6 to -7 which is key. Denver is a cornered animal right now. They can't afford to go down 1-2. Shanahan will find a way to get the runnning game going this week. My computer simulation for this game backs up what my gut is telling me - that the line is off by a couple of points. Mike Shanahan gameplans well against Tom Brady as he's just 1-4 vs. Denver as compared to 69-17 vs. all other opponents. Shanahan has put his verbal support behind Jake so I expect him to play a bit better here and for the Broncos to find a way to keep this close. They may not win but I see a tight game at the very least.