Nfl Pick Of The Week - September 23, 2007
We ended week two on a winning note hitting with Washington on Monday night but overall we went just 2-3-1. On the season we stand at 17-12. This week we look to get back to the winning ways with five Sunday selections.
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Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (Sunday 9/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Tampa Bay -3.5
Tampa Bay, 4-12 last season, is off to a 1-1 start and coming off a big win over the Saints last Sunday. They shut out New Orleans' once potent offense for nearly three full quarters. Pop Quiz: What are the two words that Philadelphia residents least want to hear? Answer: Jeff Garcia. Think they wish they still had him? Really a bigtime bonehead move to let him go in the offseason. McNabb is still hurting - you don't return to top form in less than one year after an ACL. If they had Garcia, they could have been using him. Instead, they are 0-2 and have nowhere to turn. Anyway, back to the Bucs. Garcia has played good thrown for 444 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He's a good fit for Gruden's West Coast offense. The more he plays there, the better he'll get. St. Louis has started 0-2 at home and now embark on a five game road trip. Ouch. So far, teams are taking Stephen Jackson out of the passing game by blitzing Bulger to his side (forcing him to stay in and block). Bulger has already been sacked seven times and Jackson hasn't yet gotten 100 yards on the ground. St. Louis looks completely baffled and emotionally down. We like the Bucs here at home, high off a big upset win, to handle the Rams.
Game: Indianapolis at Houston (Sunday 9/23 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Houston +6
There certainly is a different feeling in Houston this season as the Texans enter a crucial AFC South game vs. the Colts. The Texans and Colts are both 2-0, and not many expected the Texans to be in this position. With a win, they take control of the division. This is a vastly improved team, and there are big differences on both sides of the ball. The biggest change happened where it matters most - at QB. Matt Schaub was said by many scouts to potentially be a Pro Bowl quarterback, and he has proved them right so far in 2007. He has completed 36 of 50 passes for 72%, with 3 TDs and just one INT. Last year, if this team was down on the road 14-0 early, they would have had no chance. But this year is different as they piled up 34 points and won easily last week. The Texans are averaging 27 points per game and are a team with balance. Ahman Green and Ron Dayne have each carried 31 times, with Green averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The offensive line has allowed just two sacks, while the defense has recorded six. The playmaker on defense, missing from this team in years past, is Ambobi Okoye. The Texans first round pick has two sacks and a forced fumble already. The Colts managed just 6 second half points last week vs. the Titans, and hung on 22-20 by forcing a fumble late. It doesn't get any easier for the Colts this week as they stay on the road. The Colts "A" game has not translated well on the road. They have been out-scored 94-132 in their last five away games, and the win vs. Tennessee was their first in five games on the road. Last year the Colts managed just one road win by 7 points. All other games were lost or won by less than this spread. We like the improved Texans to at the very least keep this close.
Game: Cincinnati at Seattle (Sunday 9/23 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +3.5Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110
Wow! Did that Bengals-Browns game really happen last week? Did Cleveland, behind Derek Anderson, really roll up 51 points on Cincinnati? Yeah, it happened. And now oddsmakers and the betting public are overracting drastically to one game. All of a sudden the Bengals get no respect, and the total in this game goes to a sky-high 50. Carson and company are getting 3.5 points from a team that lost outright last week as a favorite to Arizona. After an embarrassment like that, we think the Bengals defense comes to play here. Their pride was wounded and they will not lay down again and play that bad two weeks in a row. Let's not forget what this Bengals offense is capable of. Carson Palmer is in the conversation when discussing the league's best quarterback. He has two amazing receivers and a top-tier running back. He threw for 401 yards and six touchdowns last game. He can win you the close games. You could say that Seattle gave away the game last week with their late fumble. But, they were soundly beaten, down by 17 points at one point. Under coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 12-4 ATS off a game in which they scored 30+ points including a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road. Seattle is just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Last year in Cincinnati road games, the final score did not top 50 once. The Bengals are in fact 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 road games with a total of 46 or higher. Seattle has played 11 games over the last several years with a posted total at home of over 44 and just once did it make it over the total. Unlike Cleveland, the Seahawks won't want to get into a shootout with Cincinnati. They know they are likely in trouble in that kind of game. Coach Holmgren will look to grind it out with Alexander, knowing that a short clock burning game is the most likely road to a Seahawks victory. We love the overreaction to last week's most surprising game and as such, we'll take both Cincinnati and the UNDER here.
Game: Carolina at Atlanta (Sunday 9/23 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Atlanta +3.5
When Michael Vick was suspended during the offseason, everyone expected the Falcons to crash and burn. In their first two games they have done just that, scoring 10 points total. Joey Harrington has been bad and now most people have written off the Falcons. We think this is a great opportunity to back them, however. We see good reason for this game to be very different than their first two. While the first two games were ont he road, this game is in Atlanta. Harrington has been known to get rattled easily on the road when he was at Miami and Detroit. He has been sacked 13 times in the first two games, making it hard to get the offense going. But, Carolina has recorded just one sack all season. Without the pressure, he is capable of a good game. If Harrington continues to struggle though, we would not be surprised to see Chris Redman inserted at some point, as he is Petrino's boy from Louisville and knows this system inside and out. The first two losses for the Falcons were against two superb defenses on the road. Jacksonville had the league's top defense at home last season and Minnesota was #1 against the run. The two teams are ranked #2 and #3 in the league in scoring defense thus far in 2007 (behind Pittsburgh). Carolina, meanwhile, is ranked 24th. The public is all over the Panthers in this game as Atlanta seems very down and out. The public is wrong much more often than not. Carolina was just 1-3 ATS last season laying points on the road and under John Fox, they are 10-21 ATS laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. We look for a different Atlanta team here and an outright win or close game for the cover.
Results: 3-1
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-September-17-2007
This line is +7 at some books and +6.5 at others. We recommend you get it at 7 even if that means at your book you have to buy a half point. Let's face it. The Eagles didn't look good last wee...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-14-2007
It is easy to look back on the Packers 16-13 opening week at Lambeau and say the wrong team won. The Packers had just 10 first downs and only once drove into Eagle territory, settling for a 37 yard FG...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-05-2007
The NFL regular season kicks-off tonight in a battle between two big-time heavyweights. The Superbowl Champion Colts host the upstart Saints. This match-up features two of the most potent offense...
NFL-Football-Picks-August-29-2007
Andy Reid was 10-18 in preseason games coming into this year. The Eagles have gone 1-2 thus far to drop him to 11-20 lifetime (that's 35%). Yet the Eagles are favorites here? Hmmm. But it gets bet...
NFL-Football-Picks-August-27-2007
While already at +3.5 at some books, this line is +3 with -125 to -135 juice (instead of standard -110) at most books right now. The line might officially move at yours to +3.5 by game time but i...
