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Betting Football Free Pick - September 21, 2009After a 6-1 week one, we are 5-2 thus far in week two. Over the past month, $100 per-unit players are up $2,620 already this season. Tonight we look to grab another winner with a pick in the Indy-Miami game. Play tonight's game at FreeSportsBet.com - where you can win real $ without risking your own.
 Today's NFL Football Picks: While this isn't being discussed, I think here should be some concern in Indianapolis about the "mighty" Colts offense. Don't get me wrong. This is still an excellent offense with one of the best quarterbacks of all time. But, Peyton Manning isn't getting any younger, and he doesn't have the same depth of talented receivers he's had in the past. The loss of Anthony Gonzalez last week only worsened that situation. And, there are some question marks on the offensive line. Let's look back at the last six years for this offense, specifically on the road. They put up 26.6 points per game in 2003 and 2004, 30.6 ppg in 2005, 23.8 ppg in 2006, and 28.6 ppg in 2007. Last year the numbers were the worst we have seen on the road from this Colts offense in any of the past six years, as they managed just 21 ppg. But this is a new year! Last week in their home opener against a Jacksonville team that went just 5-11 a year ago (and are already 0-2 this season), the Colts offense was bad, managing just 14 points. The Indy running game was especially inept, managing just 2.7 yards per carry. Maybe that's due to a stout Jacksonville defense right? Well, maybe not. This week the Jags gave up 31 points to Arizona as Kurt Warner went 24-for-26 (92.3%) setting a new NFL record. So if Arizona can put up 31 on the road in Jacksonville, and Indianapolis can score just 14 points at home vs. the same defense, maybe the concern is warranted. Will the Colts score a lot this year? Yes, they likely will as this offense is still good. But my point is that this isn't the same unstoppable offense that most remember from Manning and company. And when a team starts to decline, you usually see the biggest drop-off on the road (as we did last season). So laying a field goal on the road starts to look iffy. The Dolphins self-destructed at Atlanta last week. The same team that commited just 13 turnovers all of last season, committed four last week. Yet, they hung in the game and despite their turnover nightmare, held the Falcons to just 19 points. Two of the turnovers occured on drives into Falcon territory, so the game turned with the miscues. I don't expect that to be the case at home this week, with ball security on their minds. I expect a superb effort from Miami tonight. The Dolphins have not hosted a Monday Night game in years, so this one will feature an amped-up crowd, and amped-up players, hungry off a loss. The Dolphins players and coaches know that if they lose this game and drop to 0-2, a season of high expectations will essentially be lost. The Colts have become an overrated team and consequently, they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite. The Fins are now 7-3 ATS in their last ten games vs. a winning team. The Dolphins also hold a 5-1 ATS record against the Colts in their last six meetings. I like the team in need that is closer in talent than most think. You should be able to get +3.5 at -120 odds on this one but if you can't, I like them at +3 +100 as well.Game: Indianapolis at Miami (Monday 9/21 8:35 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Miami +150 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3) Why can't the Dolphins win this game outright? They know they need to win to keep their hopes of a playoff season alive. They will be ready for this game and will leave it all on the field. They are a dog here thanks to losing last week to Atlanta. But they aren't as bad as last week would indicate, thanks to four turnovers. Under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are 6-2 straight-up followoing an ATS loss, and home teams off a bad turnover performance have hit at a 72% clip (75-29) over the past ten NFL seasons. I like Miami's chances at getting an outright win here. NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-September-18-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-14-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-10-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-02-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-26-2009 |
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