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Free Nfl Weekly Game Picks - September 21, 2008We posted a winning week last week, going 2-1 good for 67%. On the season we are 22-17. This Sunday we have seven picks, including a 5-unit pick. We have action all day long including early games, afternoon games and the Sunday night primetime matchup between Dallas and Green Bay! We also have an article below with a take on the Patriots situation.
 Today's NFL Football Picks: The public is falling in love with Tennessee sans Vince Young as over 65% of them are backing the Titans at home in this one. But, the betting line hasn't moved a bit which indicates the big bucks are down on the Texans. While the trouble Hurricane Ike has caused is nothing to downplay, it was probably a blessing in disguise for the Texans to get an extra week to prepare. In week one they were taken down by the Steelers in all aspects of the game, on both sides of the ball. Houston is certainly better than that, and the extra week will pay dividends here. They won't face the QB they did in that Steelers game nor the other offensive weapons that Pittsburgh has. It is very difficult to trust the Tennessee offense laying a bundle of points. They simply don't have the type of team that is going to run up points quickly. And, Houston has enough firepower to hang close in this one. Tennessee is in fact just 9-22 ATS under Jeff Fisher in home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. I think the Texans will come out focused and motivated to atone for their opening day debacle. A loss here for Houston would put them 2.5 games back and that's simply not acceptable. I think they will be laying it all out here and I'll gladly take the points in a game that the Texans could win outright. Game: Kansas City at Atlanta (Sunday 9/21 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Kansas City +6 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) We saw a change from last season, or at least a percieved one, in Atlanta at home in week one. Michael Turner ate up yardage like a man possessed. Matt Ryan was effective and efficient in throwing just 13 passes. In week two we saw that ground game in Michael Turner stopped cold, and Matt Ryan look like a rookie QB making big mistakes. So which scenario plays out here? Since Atlanta piled it on against a Detroit team that went on to yield 48 points last week, there was simply no resistance there. The Chiefs offense has certainly been sluggish, but the defense has been up to what the Falcons faced in week two vs Tampa Bay. In that game the Falcons generated just nine points, so laying 5.5 here presents value. The reality is that rookie QBs have a difficult time in this league, especially after there is two weeks of game film for defenses to watch. And, they especially struggle as a favorite. I think this will more likely look like the four-sack, two-INT day that Ryan put up in week two vs. the results from game one. KC starts an untested QB too in Tyler Thigpen. He is young but he is not a rookie. He's seen real game action and a year makes a lot of difference in the development of a QB. Last week when he came in for Huard, he struggled early on but settled down at the end, hitting Tony Gonzalez for a touchdown. This week he's been practicing with the starting team. We'll take a more experienced QB vs. the rookie on a bad team, getting the points. KC is undervalued right now thanks to losing a game big last week vs. a bad team in Oakland. We like the Chiefs to bounce back this week and surprise. Game: Arizona at Washington (Sunday 9/21 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Arizona +3.5 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6) Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 42.5 -110
Game: New Orleans at Denver (Sunday 9/21 4:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 51 -110 While their defense is suspect, Denver's offense looks like they can't be stopped. They've hung 80 on their first two opponents and Jay Cutler looks very comfortable. New Orleans' offense is beginning to look like the one from '06. So now we have an early season total in the 50+ range. Must go OVER, right? Not so fast. These games seldom live up the billing and the oddsmakers know that. But the public demands a high total and the oddsmakers accomodate them. I won't make the Saints defense out to be special, but in fairness they were without their top three defensive backs last week, giving up 24 to the Skins. The reality is, this early in the season, very few games deserve to have totals set this high. Last year we saw three high totals in the first three weeks, and they all went UNDER. This year we saw the high total on Dallas and Cleveland go UNDER. Why does this happen? When two teams off big scoring games clash, the bulk of the gameplan consists of keeping the other team off the field through more of a ball control offense. With the totals are forced high by public demand, but these games often fail to live up to their billing. I'll grab the UNDER here. Game: Cleveland at Baltimore (Sunday 9/21 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Cleveland +2.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) We got a glimpse of a rookie QB coming off a good opening performance turn into the pumpkin when Matt Ryan imploded last week after a solid opener. Is this Joe Flacco's turn? I say yes. The Baltimore offense is very limited as it is, and laying points on this team is risky. Last weekend the Baltimore defense looked good but it is still an aging defense that has really shown just one good game. This is a Browns team that has playoff potential and they are going to be an animal with their back against the wall this week after starting a disasterous 0-2. The Ravens lost nine of their last ten games last year, and all of a sudden one big defensive effort vs Cincinnati, and they are reborn? We all saw that Cincinnati offense on display last week again putting up all of 10 points, so Baltimore's week one defensive performance has to be tempered. Cleveland scored 60 points on this defense last year in two games. Back to the Browns' 0-2 start. How bad is it? Well consider that those two losses came against the two teams that right now look to be headed to the Super Bowl. Baltimore is not in that class. The Browns are 20-8 ATS under Romeo Crennel coming off a loss including 13-5 ATS after losing to a division rival. They are also 7-0 ATS since last season off a loss while Baltimore is 4-13 ATS overall over that span. Game: Dallas at Green Bay (Sunday 9/21 8:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 51.5 -110 This is a matchup of two teams that have Superbowl aspirations, each failing last year after 13 win seasons, and both entering at 2-0. Big game? You bet! That spells intensity. Both teams are off exhausting division rivalry games. Dallas went punch for pinch with Philadelphia, finally prevailing in the end. Green Bay started last week looking superb and it looked like they had Detroit dead and buried at 21-0, but suddenly found themselves down 25-24 late in the fourth, rallying in the end for the win. The points won't come as easy here as they did last week for either team. There is a long standing system that is active for this game that has gone 58% under in the history of the NFL. Also, when two teams with winning records from last season meet with at least one team coming in off a win, the UNDER has hit to a tune of 70% (61-26) the past quarter-century. Why is this? The public attention on these games are very high, and the public loves the OVER. I will go with the long standing history and play the UNDER here. Results: 1-5 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-September-12-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-08-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-04-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-27-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-25-2008 |
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