Nfl Free Football Picks - September 20, 2009

We had a great start the NFL regular season, going 6-1 in week one and boosting our run over the past month to 23-15 (61%) for +19 units. In addtion, my Office Pool Picks (straight-up picks) posted a 14-2 week, good for the #1 spot out of 56 at The Prediction Tracker. This week I like seven picks on Sunday.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	28-17 last 45 picks	62%	+$2620
MLB	228-174 last 402 picks	57%	+$11360
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	116-88 last 204 picks	57%	+$4790
TOTAL			+$31230

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Houston at Tennessee (Sunday 9/20 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston +7 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)

The Houston Texans were uncharacteristically completely shutdown by the Jets last week. Their offense last year produced 21 points or more in 10 of their 16 games, and were a top-5 team in offensive yards. One of the teams that held Houston down last year was the Baltimore Ravens. That defense was of course lead by Rex Ryan who orchestrated last week's defensive beauty vs. the Texans. So, last week's offensive meltdown by Houston is at least somewhat explainable. The Texans did something against the Titans' defense last year that few teams were able to do, and that was to have their featured running back, Steve Slaton, gain over 100 yards in each of the two games. Assuming they can have running success again this weekend, that should open up Matt Schaub to some play-action passing. Without Albert Haynesworth clogging things up, I expect the Houston offense to score here. The Titans will find themselves in a flat spot here as they lost a tough game on the road in Pittsburgh as a big dog, and now come home in a completely opposite mode as a big favorite. The public sees a Titans team that was 13-3 a year ago and nearly won in Pittsburgh and a Houston team that laid an absolute egg last week, losing by 17 points as a favorite. They feel a Tennessee big win is in the cards. The public is all over Tennessee, yet this line has moved from the key number of 7 to 6.5 in many spots (although about half still offering 7). That tells you where the smart money is flowing. But, teams off a big upset loss tend to get fired up about it and come out swinging the next week. Houston was embarrassed and they will bring a much better effort this week. Gary Kubiak is 5-2 ATS as a divisional dog of up to seven, and the Texans were one of the three teams that beat the Titans a year ago. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are just 11-23 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I look for Houston to get the cover here.

What used to be a battle for AFC supremacy has turned into a battle for the basement in the AFC West. How the once mighty have fallen. So, which team is finally getting off the mat? I'm not sure if either is, but if you look at the drafts and the progress, you would have to consider the Raiders a brighter prospect at this point, at least in the near term. The biggest improvement by the Raiders was seen on the offensive line in week one. The Chargers could not get any pressure on Jamarcus Russell and had just one sack, as Russell connected on several long passes. If he wasn't way off on a few others, he would have thrown at least one more touchdown. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush give the Raiders a ground game that should find room against the Chiefs, opening the door for Russell to strike long again as the Chiefs simply have no pass rush. Richard Seymour on the Oakland defensive line made a difference already as the Raiders were putting a lot of pressure on Phillip Rivers. The Chiefs are going to have a hard time moving the ball in this one. While KC used to rule at home, but the talent has left the building and so have the covers as they are just 4-11 ATS at home over their last 15 games. The Raiders have covered seven of nine games this decade as an underdog in KC. I think the Raiders are a much-improved team, and we are getting the better team here and points to go with it.

I know, I know. How can I back St. Louis here? Our lone loss from last week's seven picks was the Rams. And it was a bad loss - 28 to nothing. Well, these are the kinds of teams I back, so get used to it. Looking at the St. Louis offense in week one, it's easy to convince yourself that they won't win a game this season. They fell behind early and were forced to the air, and at that point the game was pretty much over. But last week's performance won't keep me from backing the Rams in what I think is a great situation this week. Thanks to that performance, they are getting double digits. I expect to see a lot of Stephen Jackson early this game to take the heat off of Bulger. Washington is off a huge divisional rivalry game vs. the Giants and have the Lions on deck. They probably feel like if they just show up they will be 2-1 after three weeks. For years, the Redskins have been a bad team when they installed as a huge home favorite. I went all the way back to 1991 and found out the Skins have been a double-digit home chalk just 12 times. How often does a team lose in the NFL when they are favored by 10 or more? Well, the Redskins have done it 67% of the time! That's right, in eight of the twelve games in which they were a double-digit favorite, they lost straight up. In two others, they won by just a field goal. They have covered the large number just once in the last 15 years! The problem for Washington is that their offense has scored 17 or less points in nine of their last 12 games, and 13 or less in six of their last 10. The past history and recent offensive ineptness shows that it will be very difficult for this team to score enough to beat a big number.

Yes, Cincinnati is bad. They somehow found a way to lose last week against Denver, despite owning a lead with under a minute to go. No one wants to touch this team after that debacle. And, the Packers, despite a rusty opener vs. Chicago, are still a public favorite. As a result, 73% of the public are backing Green Bay here, despite a lot of wood (9.5 points). While there's no arguing which is the better team here, this is the perfect set up for Cincinnati cover. When one side seems so obvious and your inner voice is telling you that you could never back the other side, that's the time to do it. I can just hear Joe Square right now: "Cincinnati is horrible. They couldn't even beat lowly Denver at home. Green Bay is a superb team and Aaron Rodgers is going to feast here." Well, if it were that easy folks, big favorites in the NFL would win and cover every week. Ask the Patriots and the Chargers how that worked out for them last week. The fact is, Green Bay looked rusty last week. They still got us the win and cover, but they didn't dominate as expected. Green Bay actually had just 226 yards of offense and 26:57 time of possession. Without a +4 turnover advantage, the Packers lose that game and this line is set closer to 7 points. The Bengals actually dominated the Broncos, owning a seven minute time of possession advantage. Carson Palmer hit 64% of his passes. The defense essentially held the Broncos to 6 points before that late fluke play. I like the Bengals to find a way to keep this one under the very large number.

There was a lot to take in after watching the Patriots last week. Through nearly the entire game, the Bills beat them on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady looked very rusty for most of the game, uncharacteristically thowing off-target. Yet, the Pats found a way to win thanks to Brady brilliance in his final two drives. So which Brady, and which Pats team will show up here? Will it be the one that was soundly beaten for 3.75 quarters last week by an inferior team? Or will it be the team that found a way to win in the end? My guess is it will be something in-between. And, that may not be good enough against an inspired, motivated and talented Jets team that is coming into this one fired up and full of confidence. The Jets seem to have a star QB in the making in Sanchez, as he coolly converted 10 of 18 on third down. With Flacco and Ryan last year, and Sanchez this year, you can soundly throw out the notion that rookie QBs can't win and cover spreads in the NFL. The Patriots had trouble containing the run last week as they appear to miss Bruschi and Seymour. With Leon Washington and Thomas Jones toting, the Jets should be able to move the chains here. The bloom has come off the rose some for the Pats who are now 5-12 ATS after a straight up win, and the Jets find themselves covering a lot after holding an opponent to less than 150 passing yards as they follow that with a 22-9 ATS mark in their next game. These teams are much closer in talent than they have been for a long time. To get over a field goal on the home team is quite a gift as this is simply a reputation line. I'll take the Jets at home as a very live dog.

Last week's results for both of these teams are deceiving. On the surface, Atlanta's 12 point win over Miami (last year's darling) was viewed as reinforcement that the Falcons are for real. But, Atlanta should have a few concerns as they were given four Dolphins' turnovers at home and managed to produce just 19 points. Last week was very forgettable for the Panthers and especially Jake Delhomme. That game left Delhomme with nine INTs and two fumbles in his last two games counting the playoff debacle to end the season last year. But Carolina is not that bad and you just can't expect that kind of turnover fest to continue. Delhomme will focus on ball protection this game and without that many errors, the Panthers can be a very good team. They have a good rushing attack where the Falcons are vulnerable, so I'd expect to see a lot more of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart in this one. The problem last week was the Panthers mistakes made them play from behind, and the running back duo just didn't get enough touches. Delhomme will be thankful this one is on the road, so the boos don't fill the Stadium. And, he is 29-16 ATS in 45 road starts including 23-9 ATS as a dog. The Panthers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games after being outrushed by 75+ yards. The Falcons have not been a good team in the second of back-to-back home games after a win. They stand at a miserable 2-17 ATS at immediately following a home win (1-12 ATS if the win was by double digits) and this is a game in which they can get caught with overconfidence after the Miami win and facing a team that was blown out by 28 points last week. Finally, this has been a road-oriented series, with the road team taking five of the last seven, and this is an overreaction to one week and too many points. I'll go with Carolina here.

The Bills must be experiencing a sense of déjà vu. Two years ago on a Monday night they were beating Dallas by eight points with 20 seconds to go. They watched Dallas score, miss the two-point conversion, but recover the onside kick, then kick the game-winning field goal as time expired. The final score was Dallas 25, Buffalo 24. Last week the unthinkable happened, as the Bills had what appeared to be a huge upset win, up by 11 with under two minutes left, but the final score read identical to the '07 game with Dallas - New England 25, Buffalo 24. So now they have to pick up the pieces from a devastating loss. They played very well in that game, but still lost and I think on the short week, they may have a hangover here. The Bucs lost to the Cowboys by 13, but the final game score was misleading. Tampa Bay ran all over the Cowboy defense, and Byron Leftwich passed all over it as well. The Bucs generated 26 first downs, had as many yards as Dallas, and had the time of possession edge as well. The problem was that Tony Romo connected on three back-breaking long passes plays of 80 yards, 66 and 42 yards. So Dallas deserved to win, but Tampa Bay did not play that badly. I look for the Bucs will seal the holes and I'm also sure that Trent Edwards does not have the same ability downfield as Romo. The Bucs are catching the Bills in a tough emotional spot and were much better than advertised in their opener, despite the results. I'll go with Tampa in this one as they have a decent shot at winning this game outright.

Results: 5-2

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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-September-14-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-September-10-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-September-02-2009
The Lions did not win a game last year in the regular season. But, they did run the table in the preseason. They have already won two games this preseason and it's becoming evident that this team ...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-26-2009
The Dolphins and Bucs meet in a long-standing preseason rivalry that has seen 23 games played, with Miami holding the advantage at 14-9. These teams are both still exploring starting QB's which sh...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-24-2009
Yes, this is a meaningless game in some sense as it's just a preseason game. But in another key way, it's not meaningless at all. First-year coach Rex Ryan and the Jets lost their opener....