After starting off at 1-2 in the early Sunday games, we finished strong winning both late games and the Mondaynight pick making for a 4-2 week.

Check out my NFL Computer Predictions which predict every game on the board. NOTE: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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Game: New Orleans at Green Bay (Sunday 9/17 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Green Bay +2

Are my eyes deceiving me? Are the New Orleans Saints 2 point ROAD favorites? Yes they are. After defeating a mistake-prone Cleveland Browns team, the Saints are riding high. Green Bay looked downright horrible in week one losing 26-0 at home to the Bears. That game solidified in bettors' minds that Green Bay is as bad as they thought - or worse. This sets up a nice opportunity to back Favre and company this week. The Saints' win over Cleveland is being overblown as is the Green Bay loss to Chicago. The Bears defense is truly awesome. It was #1 last year. Shutting out a rusty Green Bay offense? Impressive but not unfounded or that unexpected. It is embarrasing to lose your home opener and it doesn't get worse than laying putting up a goose egg. After being shutout at home, professional athletes dig down and find anything they have to come back next week. The Packers get another shot at ome here - a perfect one. New Orleans' defense is terrible. Last year they allowed 30 points per game on the road on way to a 3-6 ATS mark. Sure they won last week but a Browns penalty on a touchdown made that possible. Statistically speaking, this is about a toss-up game. But when we factor in the motivation of Green Bay, off that embarrasing week 1 loss, I like the Packers to rebound with a win. This line is off because the public cant stomach baking Green Bay right now and they are over-enamored with Reggie Bush and the Saints' week one win. Don't buy the hype - back the Pack.

The mighty Seahawks struggled in game one. We were on Detroit in that game as we thought the Hawks would come out flat and the Lions pumped up. It played out perfectly with Seattle barely escaping the outright loss as a big road favorite. They were flat from start to finish. But a sign of a good team is finding a way to win - even when things are not going as planned. Now, with that one history, and the scare still in the minds of Seattle players and coaches, I look for a big bounceback performance from the Super Bowl runner up. My computer simulation for this game (http://www.freeunderdog.com/ViewMatchUp-NFL-2005.php?matchups_id=681) predicts a big 11 point win by Seattle. I agree. The line is artifially low based on last week's outcomes for both teams. Seattle scored just 9 points. But, they are much better than that. They were the highest scoring team in the league last season and outside of the loss of an offensive lineman, they haven't gotten worse. They were simply flat last week and in a bad spot. They have added Deion Branch and I am hoping he makes is debut here as he has a lot to prove. Arizona's pass offense is potent but they will have a much stiffer test this week as compared to last week vs. San Francisco (last in defense in 2005). Arizona was one play away from a loss at the hands of the lowly Niners. They allowed 27 points to the league's worst offense from last year. Not real good in your home opener. That kind of defense is not going to cut it on the road in Seattle. This place will be pumping for their home opener and there will be no letdown again for Seattle. Last season Shaun Alexander went off for 280 yards and six touchdowns in two meetings last year. Look for him to have a big, big game here. I don't often call a -7 favorite a contrarian play but I believe that is what we have here. Go Hawks.

That Falcons showed last week that they have found some defense. The addition of John Abraham has really shored up what was an average squad. Sure, the absence of Steve Smith affected the outcome of their win last week but even without Smith, it's very impressive that they held the Panthers to six points. Abraham forced two fumbles and had two sacks, earning NFC defensive player of the week, before exiting the game with a groin injury. Also injured was Patrick Kerney (tricep). I am assuming they go this week based on Kerney's comments on Monday: "I definitely think I'll be able to go. I expect Abe to go. He's in the same situation I am. He's feeling light years better than he was." We all know about Tampa Bay's defense. Despite the poor showing last week, this is a solid group. Their offense is another issue. The Bucs were shut out last week as Chris Simms threw three interceptions and was sacked three times. He'll perform better this week but I still expect a low-scoring affair. He may again get get little help from Cadillac Williams who continues to suffer back spasms. He did not practice Thursday but will likely play on Sunday. The question is, how effective can a back like him be if his back is not 100%? Last week he managed just 22 yards thanks to the spasms. Tampa Bay is 8-1 UNDER in the first month of the season the past three years under Gruden and 10-2 UNDER overall on the road over that time span when the total is between 36 and 42 points. i expect Atlanta to pound the ball like they did last week to chew up yards and clock and for Tampa to have a tough time moving the ball. I like this one to go UNDER.