Nfl Football Free Picks - September 16, 2007
Last week we suffered our first losing week of the season (out of five), going 2-3. We sit at 63% (15-9) on the year. This week we have five Sunday selections and our take on the Bill Belichick drama...
| WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| MLB |
263-219 last 482 picks |
55% | +$6610 |
| NFL |
15-9 Season-to-Date |
63% | +$1190 |
| CFB |
7-5 Season-to-Date |
58% | +$590 |
| TOTAL | | | +$8390 |
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Green Bay at New York Giants (Sunday 9/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Giants -1
It is easy to look back on the Packers 16-13 opening week at Lambeau and say the wrong team won. The Packers had just 10 first downs and only once drove into Eagle territory, settling for a 37 yard FG. Their lone touchdown came off a Philly fumble (one of three Eagles turnovers). The Eagles gift wrapped the game. The Packers have no running game whatsoever, gaining a week 1 low of 46 yards. That means the Giants are going to come after Favre, and that usually leads to mistakes. Game one was costly for the Giants as they lost Osi Umenyiora, who is at best day-to-day and Brandon Jacobs for a month. They also potentially lost Eli Manning for some amount of time (gametime decision). The Giants have good backups at running back. Derrick Ward ran for 89 yards last game (6.8 per run) and they have Rueben Droughns. All Droughns has done the last three years is gain over 3,200 yards! If Lorenzen goes at QB, he'll do a good enough job. It won't be the Giants offense that wins this game however - it will be the defense. The Packers are not the Cowboys. They are a one-dimensional team with a mistake-prone quarterback that will be facing a lot of third and long situations. Favre, one of the best early in his career, has been known to cough it up in games like this as he has gotten older. Tom Coughlin-coached teams are 29-15 ATS as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. The Giants will rebound big this week.
Game: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (Sunday 9/16 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +10
The Buffalo Bills players and coaches emotions have been on a roller coaster ride this week. Kevin Everett left the field last week with a spinal cord injury. It was a very scary scene and a life threatening injury. The news immediately following was he would never walk again. But then the news changed and the latest is that he is making voluntary movements and he may recover enough to walk. As you know, sports is very emotionally-driven. Of any sport, the NFL is probably most affected by emotion and momentum. Understanding that helps you understand this pick. Let's look back at some games in which a team had something big, something emotionally-charged, to play for. Two years ago the Giants lost Wellington Mara, their beloved owner, during their week of practice for the Redskins. They dedicated that game to Mara and went out and crushed the Skins 36-0. Last year we watched all the emotion the Saints brought into New Orleans in their first game back in the city following hurricane Katrina. They went on an emotional rampage, and beat the Falcons 23-3. The game was virtually over at kickoff. The Bills are going to be on a mission this week. They are going to want to bring the game ball back to Buffalo and hand it to fallen teammate Kevin Everett. The Steelers last week rolled over the Browns 34-7, forced 5 turnovers, and dominated start to finish. The Bills were outgained by nearly 300 yards, but buckled down when Denver got close, and had the game until Elam hit a FG as time expired. Marshawn Lynch gained 90 yards in his debut on 19 carries, good for 4.7 yards per carry. Losman had a horrible day, so expect him to step it up this week. Many are wondering how the Bills can play this week, but we are thinking the opposite. The Bills will play their most inspired football in recent memory. Throw out the stats. Throw out what happened last week. Take the team with the huge emotional edge getting a healthy double-digits.
Game: Minnesota at Detroit (Sunday 9/16 4:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +3
This has been a rivalry of sorts for a long time, but for Detroit, it has been an eternity since they have had success against Minnesota. The Vikings have owned this Lions team, winning the last 10 meetings and 14 of the last 15. The Vikings are a much different team than last year. They stayed in all their games with a team that simply shut down the running game of the opponent. Their offense though was just not able to move the ball. Adrien Peterson showed why he was a #1 pick by the Vikings last week. He completely changes the offense, as he is a gamebreaker on the ground. He also showed he can play a big role in the passing game, making an acrobatic catch that turned into a 60 yard touchdown. The Lions beat up on Oakland but Oakland is so bad, that means very little. Jon Kitna had two more interceptions vs. the Raiders last week, and in two games vs. the Vikings he has thrown six. Last year he threw 22. Against a team that can stop the run, he is going to be in trouble. Oakland reached 21 points just twice last season: against Arizona and Cleveland. So, that says something about the Lions defense. The 405 yards gained by Oakland last week against the Lions is more than they gained in any game last season! The Vikings have never lost at Ford Field (5-0) and they will run that streak to six this week. The Lions as a favorite?!? They are just 31-49 in that role the past decade and a half. Don't overreact, as the public is, to Detroit's superb win last week. This week it gets much harder and we'll back the Vikings as a dog.
Game: New York Jets at Baltimore (Sunday 9/16 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New York Jets +10
Wow! The Jets looked bad last week. The Pats spanked them around the field as they lost 38-14. Randy Moss may still be catching passes. The Jets lost their starting QB and now throw a rookie to the wolves - the mean, tough defense of the Baltimore Ravens. How can we be backing the Jets you ask? Simple. This spread is way too high. Baltimore has an amazing defense. This is true. But, their offense, under backup Kyle Boller is bad. Steve McNair may not be the second coming that Baltimore hoped for. But, he's a massive improvement over Boller. We have always thought Boller was a bad QB and our opinion hasn't changed. And the Jets aren't as bad as they showed last week. Basically Randy Moss (and maybe to some extent a video camera) beat them. They let Moss go off for nine grabs for 183 yards and a touchdown. They were not ready for him and played him horribly, letting him get free releases all day. Live and learn. But the Ravens have no one like Moss. Their offense is mediocre with McNair and sub-par with Boller. What about Chad Pennington going down? Well, it may not be a bad thing. While you never want to send a rookie into face the Ravens' defense, this kid is no average rookie. He could be exceptional. Note that the Jets had opportunities to draft Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler and passed on both before grabbing Clemens. He has as strong an arm as any of the recent rookies except for Cutler. When the Ravens blitz him, he could have some success deep. Also, when a key player like Pennington goes out, and all looks grim, teammates often pick up the slack in a big way in that first game back. They know that they must shoulder more of the load to help out the new guy. They play at 110% across the board in an effort to pick up the slack. We expect a good performance from the Jets overall here. In addition to the loss of McNair, the Ravens suffered the loss of Pro Bowl tackle Jonathan Ogden and punt returner BJ Sams and Ray Lewis tore his right triceps muscle. Last year the Jets were 6-2 SU and ATS on the road under new head coach Eric Mangini. We think they bounce back to some extent this week and put a scare into Baltimore, keeping it to single figures at worst.
Game: San Diego at New England (Sunday 9/16 8:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on San Diego +3.5
Can you say REVENGE? The Chargers are a hungry team that still thinks they belonged in the SuperBowl last year. But the Pats had something to say about that, erasing a 21-13 fourth quarter Chargers lead in last year's playoffs to send the Chargers packing. After New England upset San Diego, ending their 14-2 season, Patroits players danced on the logo at midfield after the game. The normally stoic and controlled LaDanian Tomlinson was incensed and refused to shake hands with Pats players after the game. He called the Pats "disrespectful" and said that "it showed no class at all and maybe that comes from their coach." Ouch. This will be a fired up Chargers team, putting forth it's best effort in this one. And this team's best effort is something you don't want to face. The one thing the Pats won't have here, given the early scheduled date, is their ice cold New England weather as their 12th man. It will be great football weather with game-time temperatures in the high 50s to low 60s. The Pats have this mystique of being a very dominant team at home. That is because they have dominated at home in the playoffs. The assumption by many however is that they are always a great play at home. It is actually quite the contrary! They are just 6-10 ATS during the regular season at home over the last two years! San Diego is the more talented team overall and they have a key motivational edge at work here. They no longer have Schottenheimer at the helm, who was known for somehow turning wins into losses. Instead they have Norv Turner who, despite a weak overall head coaching record, is 15-3 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. We think the motivational edge (San Diego up and New England possibly down after the embarrassing cheating revelations this week) plus 3.5 points makes the Chargers a great play. While our comptuter matchup of this game has the Pats winning a close one, we think the Chargers have a shot at winning the game outright. At a minimum, we like them to keep it within a field goal.
Results: 1-3
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