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Picks Football - September 14, 2009We finished 4-1 yesterday, for +6.9 units and over the past month we are 21-15 (58%) for +14.5 units. Tonight I like both games. Get a 40% Deposit Bonus at Diamond Sports or Bookmaker or a 50% bonus at BetUS when you open an account through us. Reply to this email for details.  Today's NFL Football Picks: The Patriots welcome back Tom Brady at QB here, and everyone seems to think that it will be business as usual for the Pats. It's Super Bowl or bust again, right? A full 79% of the public is betting the Pats tonight, despite the heavy chalk. Well this team very well could make it to the Super Bowl this year, but that's not what betting this game is about. Let's rewind the tape here before we hand the Pats a double-digit win in this game. Most remember the dominating efforts of a Brady-led offense back in 2007-08. That team became the first to run the regular season table. They were simply awesome. What gets lost in all the hoopla however is that the Patriots lost their last six games ATS that season as a favorite of 11 or more. And, they lost their only two games last year as an 11+ chalk, making them officially 0-8 ATS in their last eight as heavy chalk. That 07-08 team was with a team that was running on all cylinders, posting the most regular season wins ever, and seemingly putting up 30+ points on everyone. But, they couldn't get it done vs. the over taxed big numbers. Now we have a team in game one, with a rusty Tom Brady, with perhaps an ailing shoulder from a pre-season hit. Throw in an aging defense, minus a few big contributors from two years ago, and why do we expect that 0-8 streak to change tonight? The odds-makers know they will get a lot of action, even at a line that is weighted, and the public is biting hard. The Bills offense prior to this season was missing one big player, and they hope that Terrell Owens will be that player. Yes, Marshawn Lynch is out for their first three games, but Fred Jackson has proven to be a good back, getting lots of carries even when Lynch was in the lineup. The Bills now have a threat to stretch the field, as well as strength between the tackles. While the gut tells you to take the Patriots, the right play here is on the Bills with the bushel of points.Game: San Diego at Oakland (Monday 9/14 10:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Oakland +10 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) I can't remember the last time a team got double-digits at home in a season opener, but such is the case with the Raiders in this one. It's not too much of a surprise given how bad the Raiders have been in recent years, and their bad play in the preseason. And, the Chargers are going to be a very good team this year. But, laying double-digits on the road is going to suck the life out of your bankroll before long. The good news for the Raiders is that they won their last two games in 2008. A team that was able to score 18+ points in a game just once in ten games, closed the season scoring 26, 27 and 31 in their final three. JaMarcus Russell is coming around as he threw seven TD passes in the first 13 games but six in the last three of 2008. The running game was superb as well gaining 447 yards on 96 carries. So there is some hope for the Raiders this season. The Chargers had an injury plagued year, finished strong, and made the playoffs at just 8-8. They are on a 3-7 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5-10 points. The oddsmakers opened this game at -6.5 for San Diego. That's the fair number in their mind. My computer matchup for this game agrees. The public has pushed it all the way to -10! I like Oakland to find a way to stay inside an inflated number. NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-September-10-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-02-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-26-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-24-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2009 |
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