Free Football Picks Handicapper - September 13, 2009

As we enter football in full-swing, things are going extremely well in 2009. Overall in all sports, we have posted five straight winning months, growing a $10,000 bankroll in April to $30,900 at the end of August.

On the WNBA front, we are on a 20-5 run amidst our best season ever. We are in the middle of our best MLB season ever, having over doubled starting bankrolls and we're coming off our best-ever NBA and NFL seasons. And, college football started off on a winning note in week one.

On the NFL side, we posted only our second losing preseason in seven years, albeit a very slight loss as we went 19-18 for -1.3 units. We were one pick away from another winner and I blame it on San Francisco in that final game :) But, I won't hold a grudge long as I like them this week. I've got five Sunday picks overall.

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Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (Sunday 9/13 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Jacksonville +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The 2009-10 NFL season will open without Tony Dungy at the helm of a team for the first time in over a decade. Dungy established himself as one of the all-time greats, winning at Tampa Bay and Indianapolis, including a Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Jim Caldwell takes over for the Colts as they face the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jags could never get anything going a year ago as nothing seemed to go right for this team. They went from 11 wins in 2007 to five in 2008 thanks primarily to an injury-riddled offensive line that forced them away from their successful play action passing attack. They lost both starting guards and their center in the very early going and no team is going to win when that happens. It led to a running game that was literally grounded and exposed QB David Garrard to 42 sacks (double his previous high). The offensive line is healthy to start the season and Garrard lost 20 pounds in the off-season, setting up a swifter QB and back to the rollout play action formations in which he has had his greatest success. Maurice Jones-Drew finally gets to tote the rock exclusively and this team will be better for it. I expect the Jags to improve tremendously on offense this year. The Jags match up well with the Colts up front and their hard-nosed smash mouth tactics have taken advantage of Indy's weak interior defense. The Jags have always played well against the Colts and these games are very frequently tight and hotly contested. The last 14 times these teams have met, 12 games were decided by eight points or less and the Jags have covered four straight at Indianapolis. Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio is now 5-1 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+ points. This is just too many points in a division rivalry like this one. The line is big because Jacksonville is underrated. I like the Jags to put up a real fight here.

The Rams were horrible on both sides of the ball a year ago. It's hard for anyone to back them this year with the taste of that 2-14 season still fresh in their mouth. But we aren't afraid to back the ugly ducklings because we know, it's the road to riches in the NFL! The truth of the matter is, the Seahawks weren't much better in 2008, boasting just  four wins the entire season. So, although they should be an improved team with a healthy Hasselback at QB, I wouldn't expect to see that showing up in week one. To make a four win team from a year ago almost a double-digit favorite is just too much, especially one that is dealing with some offensive line issues. This Seahawks team, remember, is one that did not win a single game in the NFC outside of their division. And their history in home openers isn't exactly a confidence-builder as they are 4-9-1 ATS the last 14 years. St. Louis should be able to run the ball with a healthy line and a healthy Steven Jackson and get enough out of Bulger to score enough to hang around a big number in week one. There is always the opportunity for a back door here as well. Finally, the Seahawks are on a dismal 5-10 straight-up run at home in the first two weekso of the season. I like St. Louis in this one as this line is set way to high.

The New York Giants really thought that the disruption that occurred over the Plaxico Burress incident would be a net positive, but in the end the Giants offense really took a huge step back without him. In 2008 they couldn't lose with Burress in the lineup and couldn't win without him. Eli Manning has yet to show he's an elite quarterback (terrible 55% lifetime completion percentage) and without someone like Plax, he's proving to be average at best. The Giants can run the ball, but if the passing game is leaking oil due to lack of quality receivers, the running game could take a step back as well. Many don't remember, but the Redskins' defense was good in 2008 - ranked fourth best in the league! And, the defense improved in a huge way with the addition of Albert Haynesworth. This guy WAS the Titans defense a year ago. The Giants may be a bit overrated this season and the Skins perhaps a bit underrated, so looking at nearly a TD spread makes the Skins look like the valued choice here. This has been a road team oriented series of late with the visitor grabbing the cash in four of the last five and, the Skins are 29-13 ATS the past 17 years as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Division rivalry games are typically hard fought affairs and the Skins did more to improve themselves than the Giants this offeseaon. I like them to hang around in this one and will go with Washington here.

With all of the big stories in the NFL this year (Favre, Brady back, Jay Cutler, etc), other important news has slipped under the radar. For example, the massive culture change and improvement in level of play in San Francisco since Mike Singletary took over. It began last year with a fiery press conference where he threw his players under the bus, challenged them and basically told them if they didn't leave it all on the field someone else would be. Sometimes teams respond to this and other times the coach loses the team. Singletary gained his team's attention and trust and the Niners finished the season with wins in four of their last five games. This, after a bad start to the season with the same players! The Niners also went through the 2009 preseason winning three of four games. For those counting, that's 7-2 for big Mike. He continues to display his passion to win and his team is playing up to it. The Arizona Cardinals may not get what they had hoped from Kurt Warner this season. Warner had hip surgery in the off-season, looked horrid throwing the ball in the preseason, and the Cards went 0-4. He had three fumbles, three INT's and zero TD passes. It doesn't help that Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston missed a lot of time with injuries and that could hamper timing in the opener. It also doesn't bode well for the Cards that the Super Bowl loser is 0-9 ATS the last nine years in game one. Niners underated - Cards overrated. I like the Niners here to cover and, perhaps, win this one.

The preseason is always considered to be a bunch of useless scrimmages by the general public and the talking heads on TV. But, those of use that live and breath sports betting know better. There are moments on the field that one has to take note, and that is when the starters are playing the opposing teams starters. It certainly gives you a peek at what a team has or doesn't have. The Packers first team was on the field for 13 possessions during the preseason. It is hard not to acknowledge what Green Bay did with those 13 opportunities. Aaron Rodgers has had a year to gel with a talented corp of receivers and in in the preseason he and his starting offense were superb. They put the ball in the end-zone nine times, had one FG, no turnovers and was forced to punt just once. The Packers have a new defensive coordinator and will be featuring a 3-4. In those same 13 possessions, the defense forced seven turnovers and three punts, allowing just one TD and two FG's. This Packers team dropped seven games a year ago by four points or less, so the 6-10 mark is likely to be vastly better this season. In fact, the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers, should have a breakout season. The Bears acquired Jay Cutler in the offeseason, so everyone is immediately hoisting the NFC North banner over Chicago. But Jay Cutler does not have the weapons he did in Denver and is a high risk QB that could prove costly in Green Bay at Lambeau. The Bears defense is not what it was a few years ago, when it led them to a Super Bowl appearance as it has aged and regressed. The Packers in the Mike McCarthy era are 13-5 ATS vs. division opponents. This will be a very hostile primteime environment for the Bears and the Pack will be very confident. I like Green Bay to come out with a big game one win here.

Results: 4-1

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Updated today: week seventeen nfl picks.
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• Check out our updated nfl picks week 6.
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• Don't forget to read our week nine nfl picks here.
• Here we show our nfl picks week ten .
• Check out our updated nfl picks week eleven .
• View nfl week 12 picks here.
• Don't forget to read our nfl picks week thirteen here.
• Hop over to our week one nfl picks here.
• Take a look at our 2009 NFL season win totals here.
• View our updated 2009 NFL prior pick results.
• View our nfl week 5 picks here.
• Here we show our nfl week 4 picks.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl picks week 3.
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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-September-02-2009
The Lions did not win a game last year in the regular season. But, they did run the table in the preseason. They have already won two games this preseason and it's becoming evident that this team ...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-26-2009
The Dolphins and Bucs meet in a long-standing preseason rivalry that has seen 23 games played, with Miami holding the advantage at 14-9. These teams are both still exploring starting QB's which sh...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-24-2009
Yes, this is a meaningless game in some sense as it's just a preseason game. But in another key way, it's not meaningless at all. First-year coach Rex Ryan and the Jets lost their opener....

NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2009
Each of these teams is seeking its first win of the NFLX. The Bucs have a battle at QB and Luke McCown did little to help his cause as he threw for just 19 yards in his start vs the Titans. Byron Left...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-20-2009
It is rare to see an NFL preseason pointspread in this range except for week three, when you see starters getting a lot of time on the field. It certainly makes you look hard at the abundance of point...