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Expert Football Free Picks - September 14, 2008NOTE: Due to Hurricane Ike, the Baltimore vs. Houston game has been rescheduled for Monday. We will include the pick and write-up in Monday's newlsetter. We went 3-4 last week, but remain at 56% on the season. This week we have four Sunday picks.
 Today's NFL Football Picks: Anyone that watched Oakland on Monday Night will cringe at this pick, but that is the point. When the public can't bear to take a team is usually where the value lies in the NFL. The Raiders looked bad in that prime time game - very undisciplined and unprepared. We expect a different team this week as the players look to atone for that embarassment. The Chiefs are already down to their backup QB as Brodie Croyle went down in game one, opening the door for Damon Huard to recapture the starting spot. Chief fans were quickly reminded why Croyle was made the choice over Huard, as Huard threw an interception as one of his 12 pass attempts last week. He made 10 starts for the Chiefs last season and threw for just 11 TDs and had 13 picked off. That is why he is a backup. Now, a Chiefs offense that scored 17 or fewer points in 12 of 16 games last year (and just 10 in their opener) is already facing another uphill battle. The Raiders have done very well at Kansas City as they won there last year. Justin Fargas carried the ball one time in a 2-point loss to the Chiefs at home, but ripped them for 139 in the win at Kansas City. These teams always play close games here, with the largest margin of victory over the last five years just 4 points. Remember last year the Raiders got hammered by the Lions in their opener at home, allowing 36 points. They came back and took Denver to OT in a 3-point loss the following week. This one could go either way with the game in the balance in the 4th quarter, and that makes getting a field goal plus here very appealing. As hard as it is to stomach, we're backing the Raiders on Sunday. Game: San Francisco at Seattle (Sunday 9/14 4:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on San Francisco +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) If you look at the final score from last week's Arizona-San Francisco game, it looked like Arizona had control of that game from start to finish. Heck, they won by 10 points. But, if you look at the game statistically, without seeing the score, you would have a difficult time deciding who won. The Niners actually outgained the Cardinals, but the key to the game was five San Francisco turnovers! Even with the turnovers, the Niners were in the game and the defense, which was on the field for almost 38 minutes, did a great job keeping them in the game. To win by just 10 points with 5-0 turnover margin is embarassing. The Cards had five extra possessions and gained less total yards! The Niners held the Cards to 2-for-7 in the red-zone. It is also worth noting that JT O'Sullivan looked good, completing 70% of his passes, and Frank Gore almost reached 100 yards on just 14 carries. San Franscisco is certainly undervalued here. The Seahawks were manhandled at the line of scrimmage all game vs the Bills and Hasselback was dropped five times. Consequently he completed just 17 of 41 passes. With the way the 49ers defense performed last week, recording three sacks of their own, this becomes interesting because the Seahawk offensive line was completely outplayed. This is an overlay and in a divisional game. Laying a TD is not usually a good bet, but getting one with a team that appears under the radar is laden with value, and I'll go with the Niners. Game: Miami at Arizona (Sunday 9/14 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Miami +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) As mentioned above, the Cardinals had ample opportunity to blow out the Niners last week as they had a five-turnover advantage. But they ended up in a close game at home vs a team they were supposed to beat. Arizona could not move the ball in the red-zone and cash in on five extra chances. Their defense was only on the field for 22 minutes vs an average offense, and still gave up plenty of yards. Not likely they will be +5 in turnovers here again. Miami was within one play of beating the Brett Favre hyped Jets, as Pennington drove them down to the Jets 18 late, but was picked off to end their hopes. Pennington still finished with 26 completions for 251 yds and 2 TDs, so the Dolphins immediately have a huge upgrade at QB as compared to the one-win team from 2007. Statistically the Fins played the Jets to a dead heat, and overall they looked like a better team than the Cardinals. This line is based on a 1-15 Dolphin team from a year ago (that happened to lose in week one). But the Cards don't deserve to be this chalky after last week's performance. Last year they were favored at home by 6 over Carolina and lost, 10 over San Francisco and lost, and 11 over Atlanta and had to go to OT to get the win. Miami is much better, and I'll back them with the points here. Results: 2-1 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-September-08-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-04-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-27-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-25-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-23-2008 |
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