We started off with a winning Sunday, going 3-2 for the day (6-4 on a star basis). Tonight we look to make it a 4-2 weekend with one pick. It's a one-star pick as we want to lock in a profit for the week either way.

Check out my NFL Computer Predictions which predict every game on the board. NOTE: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

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Good luck today...

Game: San Diego at Oakland (Monday 9/11 10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1 star on UNDER 43

The total in this game has moved down from an opening 44 number to 43. I think it is still too high. We have a San Diego offense that has just switched quarterbacks and essentially starts a rookie here. Inexperienced QBs do not perform well in the NFL. Sure, Ben Roethlisberger defied the odds in his first year but that was clearly the exception to the rule. Even the eventual Hall-of-Fame QBs struggle in their first year at the helm. They make mistakes (think interceptions). The Chargers still have LT and should get some points but I don't expect a blowout performance from Rivers, especially in this hostile environment. Oakland knows what they key to sucecss is here - stuff the run and force Rivers to beat them. If he gets rattled and the crowd gets on him, it could be tough for the young man to recover. Even with the experienced and accurate Drew Brees at QB last season, San Diego still ranked just 10th in offense. Their defense was ranked a very solid 13th. Expect a good defensive performance from them with a slight dropoff in offense. Meanwhile, Oakland has Aaron Brooks at quarterback. He was benched last year in New Orleans after throwing 17 interceptions to 13 touchdowns. Why did Oakland grab him? Maybe they are asking themselves the same question as they went out and got Jeff George as a backup - a guy who wasn't very good and hasn't played in 5 years. Brooks is very much like Jake Plummer prior to last season with the Broncos - lots of potential but very poor decisions and a ton of mistakes. He is another guy that can turn scoring opportunities into turnovers in a hurry. Oakland managed just 18.1 points per game last season and I am not sure they will get much more this year with Brooks at the helm. San Diego picks up their defense against division opponents on the road. Over the past two seasons they have held them to 17.8 points per game on average and have gone UNDER six times in a row. Three of the last four games between these clubs have gone UNDER including both played in Oakland. Week one games with a home underdog go UNDER the total at about a 68% clip in the NFL. Yesterday we saw five games that qualified for this trend (Det, GB, Hou, NYG, Stl) and all five went UNDER! I look for a sixth one here. Go UNDER the total in this game.