The NFL season kicks off on Thursday September 7th. The Miami-Pittsburgh opener is a tough one to call with Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines. I am passing on that game. But, come Sunday, there are five games I like.

Check out my NFL Computer Predictions which predict every game on the board. NOTE: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

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Six Reasons Why Underdogs Are the Smart Bet in the NFL

Underdog or favorite? It's a choice we make 16 times per week during the NFL season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in the NFL. Here are six reasons why you should pay special attention the dogs this season when making your NFL picks.

1. NFL Parity

The NFL has made great strides to achieve rough equality among teams. It has succeeded. Just look at these SuperBowl teams from the past several years: St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, and Carolina last year. None of these teams were supposed to make it that far but they all did and many won, despite losing records the year before. Unlike the college game, any given team can win on Sunday in the NFL. Why not get some points to boot?

2. A Win is a Win

Again, unlike in College, there is no need to blow-out a team. Favorites that get up early don't typically run up the score in the NFL. It doesn't serve a purpose and in most cases, coaches would rather not embarrass their opponent and/or risk injury to their stars. In the NFL, big leads often dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game.

3. The Rodney Dangerfield Effect

Underdogs don't get any respect! They don't get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don't get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week's tougher opponent). Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset.

4. The Public Can't Help Itself

The average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), oftentimes pushing lines unreasonably high. We saw it during the 90's with Dallas and San Francisco . In fact, almost every week, with the right research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public "bandwagon effect." For example, last year Kansas City visited Cincinnati in week 10. The Chiefs had won nine straight and seemed invincible. In hindsight, Cincinnati was the easy underdog pick. Kansas City 's defense was ranked 25 th in the league at the time. Cincinnati was on a roll having won 3 of their last four games and Rudi Johnson was coming into his own. Cincinnati had the emotional edge and nothing to lose by taking a shot at an undefeated team they knew they could beat. However, the public couldn't get over Kansas City 's success and spot this situation.

5. Got Courage?

Most bettors don't have the courage to go with certain underdogs. They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad team and assume it won't be a contest. They have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with the right combination of statistical and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are also certain situations in which bad teams have historically and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario.

6. The Point-spread Matters Less than You Think

Historically, the point-spread matters in the NFL only about 16% of the time. In other words, 84% of the time, the team that covers the spread also wins. With this knowledge, if you have underdogs that you really like (based on the right research, not a hunch), you can take them to win straight-up (money line), collecting anywhere from 1.2 to 4 times your original bet. Usually a three-point dog will pay around 140 for 100 for a straight-up win versus 100 for 110 wagered on a regular spread-based pick. Seven point underdogs pay around 250 for 100 for a straight-up win.

What It All Means

Obviously just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account balance). However, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week.

Game: New Orleans at Cleveland (Thursday 9/07 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Cleveland -3

New Orleans has to be excited about their offense with the addition of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush as well as offensive-minded Sean Payton as their head coach. If Deuce McCallister and Joe Horn can return to 2004 form, this offense will be formidable. But, what about their defense? It's horrible. Last year they gave up 314 yards per game and 24.9 points per game. On the road they allowed 325 per game and 30 points per game. No wonder they were 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in road games. We can see where Payton's mind is - offense. Why else would he do so much on offense (Brees, Bush) but very little to improve this terrible defense? I expect it to be a tough long season again for the Saints. Cleveland meanwhile is poised for real improvement. Gotta love Romeo Crennel in his second season. The Browns asdded Joe Jurevious and a healthy Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards and Charlie Frye is back for his second season at QB. Unlike Payton, Crennel knows defense wins in the NFL and he made great strides bringing in a couple of former players on his Super Bowl Patriots team - NT Ted Washington and linebacker Willie McGinest. They also drafted defense first taking defensive players with their top two picks. The Saints are probably where Cleveland was last year - major rebuild mode. Cleveland has a year under its belt with Crennel and Frye and I like them to score here against a bad Saints defense. My computer simulation for this game (http://www.freeunderdog.com/CurrentMatchUps-NFL.php) agrees as it has Cleveland winning by 5 points. Take the Browns at home minus the field goal.

Let me get this out of the way: Steve Smith will play. That's what all his teammates have told reporters. I am assuming he will be in this game and at full-speed. Carolina is the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl this year. They added the services of Keyshawn Johnson to complement Smith. Atlanta remains an overrated team in my opinion. They will do better than last year but until Michael Vick proves he can hold up throughout a season and win, I am not sold. The loss of TJ Duckett will hurt their running game althought it will remain powerful. Last year in the two meetings between these clubs, Carolina shut down Vick and won by a combined score of 68-17. Smith scorched the Falcons secondary for 16 catches and nearly 200 yards. The Panthers defense allowed just 16.5 points per game last year (14.0 to division opponents). Atlanta's allowed 21.3 per game and 28.8 in-division. They have improved with the addition of John Abraham and Lawyer Milloy. But, will it be enough against the likes of Delhomme, Smith, Johnson and Foster? I don't think so. The Panthers are for real and I cannot yet say the same for Atlanta.

Seattle shocked many pundits last year, making it to the Super Bowl and giving the Steelers a run for their money. That "unknown team from the Northwest" is not under the radar any longer. They didn't do much in the offesason to improve (not that they needed to). But, they did suffer a big loss with right guard Steve Hutchinson leaving for Minnesota. His Pro Bowl performance last year was one of the reasons for Hasselbeck and Alexander performing as they did. They may be without starting wideout Darrell Jackson here who is just back from knee surgery. They are definitely without tight end Jerramy Stevens who is out, also due to knee surgery. Detroit in contrast made a lot of changes - most for the better. I like the addition of Jon Kitna, who if you will remember, had a great year with Cincinnati before Carson Palmer took over. Mike Martz, an offensive guru, is helping to get this offense on track. It's no surprise that this line has climbed from 3.5 to 6 as the betting public is all over Seattle after the season they had, and down on the lowly Detroit Lions. But the Lions, their new coach and fans will be big-time pumped here in the dome. It should feel like no game has felt in Detroit in a long, long time. Until their season fell apart, Detroit played great at home last season, especially on defense (allowed no more than 21 points to any team). Look for Detroit to leave it all on the field. Visiting teams that won 13+ games the year before are dismal in week one against the spread. And, teams that were near the bottom of the league in offensive production last year peform very well in week one. These two trends meet here and demonstrate what we know: the public is all over the Hawks here so we'll go the other way.

Dallas is the media magnet right now. All eyes are on T.O. and the Big Tuna. When will T.O. blow up? Not sure. But hamstring injuries are REALLY bad for wide receivers. I am not sure what to expect from Owens this game but of the three possible results (non factor, average performance, breakout performance), I'd be most shocked by a killer game by him. He hasn't practiced much, has no rythm with Drew Bledsoe, and won't be at 100%. This pick is about the Jags, though. This team won 12 games last year and they have a mean defense that allowed under 15 points per game at home. They didn't win pretty but they are scrappy and seem to find a way. Their offense continues to improve (16.3 PPG in 2004 to 22.6 last year). Jacksonville tends to start strong as they haven't lost against the spread in the past three seasons during the month. That probably has something to do with "fragile" Fred Taylor who isn't completely nicked up yet this early in the season. The public is on Dallas, pushing this line off of -3 which is hard to do. That extra half-point could come in very useful here. Jacksonville minus the points.

Eli vs. Peyton. This one will be a fun game to watch and not only because it pits brothers against each other at QB (first time ever). It' will be great because it features two teams that have legitimate Super Bowl hopes. With all the hype, it's easy to get caught up in what these offenses have to offer. Besides the Manning brothers, we will see superstars Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress. But let's not forget about the defenses here. Coming after Peyton Manning will be Pro Bowlers Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. The G-Men added LaVar Arrington, Sam Madison, R.W. McQuarters and have a healthy Antonio Pierce back at LB. Expect much improvement to their defense this year. The Colts won't have Edgerrin James there to pick up their blitzes in this game (the way to get to Peyton of course). Indianapolis' defense, a laughing stock prior to last season, is now a very solid unit with the speedy Dwight Freeney and hard-hitting Bob Sanders. They allowed 15.4 points per game last year - second only to Chicago! And Adam Vinatieri is hoblbled. You can bet that Tony Dungy watched a lot of film of the Giants' playoff loss to the Panthers - a game in which the high-power New York offense was blanked. In week one of the NFL season, games with a posted total of 45+ go UNDER at a 78% clip. Games with a home underdog go UNDER at about 68% and games with a total around this numbner, featuring two winning teams go UNDER at about 78% too. What we have here is an inflated total based on the teams involved (winners with great offenses). They might be a bit rusty and I like the defensive improvements of the Giants and the stout Indy defense. The public loves to play the OVER, especially in primte-time TV tilts. You may get this at closer to 50 by game time. Take the UNDER here.