Football Handicapping For Beginners - September 09, 2007
We couldn't have asked for a better preseason as we hit 68% (13 of 19), padding our bankroll with an extra 19.3 units for the regular season.
In week one, we have a pick in the Thursday night opener and four Sunday picks...
| WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| MLB |
250-202 last 452 picks |
55% | +$6350 |
| NFL |
13-6 Season-to-Date |
68% | +$1930 |
| CFB |
3-3 Season-to-Date |
50% | +$10 |
| TOTAL | | | +$8290 |
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: New Orleans at Indianapolis (Thursday 9/06 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 53 -110
The NFL regular season kicks-off tonight in a battle between two big-time heavyweights. The Superbowl Champion Colts host the upstart Saints. This match-up features two of the most potent offenses in the NFL and most folks are expecting a shootout. But we beg to differ. Week one of the NFL season is not the week you typically see everything flowing offensively. This total is based on how these teams performed "as a whole" last year. It is probably the right total - if these teams were already in mid-season form. The Colts have had a high powered offense now for several years, but does that equate to a high octane performance in week one? You guessed it - no! The last four seasons the Colts have averaged 21 points scored in week one. They have allowed an average of just 13. They have not topped 26 points offensively and their week-one scoring is consistently much lower than their season average. The Colts scored 26 last year in game one, which ranked as their 9th highest output for the season. The 2005 opener saw them score 24 which was their 11th ranked output for the season. The '04 Colts scored 24 in week one, good for their 12th best. Finally, the '03 Colts put up 9 (their 16th ranked output for the year). So, yes - the Colts score, but not nearly as much in their opener. Week one is rarely, if ever, one of their higher scoring games. It has in fact averaged a rank of 12 out of 16 over four years. Also, the UNDER has hit in 10 of Indy's last 15 home games. The Saints last year became an offensive juggernaut for the first time in many years. But even last year they weren't clicking in week one. They scored 19 points which ranked 13th best out of the 16 games they played. The more you look at this total, the more out of whack it looks. No NFL first week total as far back as 1995, has ever been posted this high! There have been 24 games over the past six seasons with opening game totals of 45+ and the UNDER has come through in 20 of the 24 (83.3%)! The oddsmakers and public are enamored with, and focused on, the high profile offensive stars in this game (Manning, Harrison, Bush, Brees). That has resulted in a line that is way off and we'll jump on the value on the other side. This is just too high for a game one, and we will play UNDER.
Game: Philadelphia at Green Bay (Sunday 9/09 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 43 -110
Brett Favre enters his 16th season in the NFL. With one more victory, he will surpass the record held by John Elway. And, with seven more touchdowns, he'll surpass Dan Marino's all-time mark of 420. We're not sure if he'll get that win on Sunday but we are pretty sure he won't make too much progress toward's the TD record. The reality is, Favre is way past his prime. This team managed only 14.2 points per game at home last season! You would think they would address that problem in the offseason. But not only didn't they make it better, they actually made it worse! They lost Ahman Green, and his potential replacements are both injured. The last thing Favre needs right now is no running game. And to top it off Donald Driver is questionable with a sprained foot. Favre's counterpart, Donovan McNabb, is coming off a serious knee injury that kept him out of the final six games last season. McNabb has only started 19 of the Eagles' last 32 games. He is primed for a good year if he stays on the field but we do expect some rust in game one. And, he's likey to be without one of his favorite targets, LJ Smith (questionable with groin injury). Philadelphia did score a lot last season (24.7 per game) but that doesn't usually translate to high scoring openers the following year. In fact, opening week games featuring a road team that scored 24+ points per game last season have gone UNDER 77% of the time (17-5) the past three seasons. Five of Green Bay's last six home games have gone UNDER, as have five of the last six in this matchup. Green Bay's offense is bad and Philadelphia's will be rusty. Take the UNDER here.
Game: Chicago at San Diego (Sunday 9/09 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Chicago +6
In our season wins predictions, we predict a tough road for the Bears in 2007. But, we like them to cover the spread here vs. the San Diego Super Chargers. Both of these teams are very motivated with each suffering a dissapointing final loss last season. We are no fan of Rex Grossman. But if there's a time to back him, it's when he hasn't yet had time to "think" too much. Last season, Chicago struggled late, but early on they were lights-out, outscoring opponents 221-69 in their first seven games. The Chargers are a very talented team. Inexplicably, they revamped the entire coaching staff after a 14-2 season. While it may not hamper them, it likely won't help. Chicago's defense really fell apart last year after losing two key starters mid-season. Tommie Harris is back and healthy and we look for Chicago's defensive dominance to return this year. This defense is going to be "up" for the challenge of facing LaDanian Tomlinson. And let's not forget the Bears have won 15 of their last 19 games straight-up including 7-1 on the road. They scored a league-high 30.4 points per game on the road last season. San Diego meanwhile is just 2-4 ATS in their last six home games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Look for a hard-fought battle vs. a blowout, and for the Bears to cover this large number.
Game: Tampa Bay at Seattle (Sunday 9/09 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Tampa Bay +6
The team the betting public likes the most this week? Over 75% are betting on Seattle. We'll "Buc" that trend and take the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting the points here. It's no big wonder why everyone is jumping on the Seahawks. After just missing out on a Super Bowl win in 2005, they dropped off last season thanks in a large part to injuries. Now they are healthy and the prevailing wisdom is that they will cruise to their fourth consecutive NFC West title. But, is the picture really that rosy? Shaun Alexander averaged a career-low 3.6 yards per carry last season and he is now 30 (the death age for most NFL running backs). And, Matt Hasselbeck is coming off one of his worst years as a starter. He threw 18 interceptions last season in just 12 games - more than he has ever thrown in any full season. Also, this offensive line has question marks. Pro Bowl tackle Walter Jones played just one series during the preseason thanks to a shoulder injury and next to him are two new starters. Tampa Bay was again horrible in 2006. Heck, they haven't been good since winning the Super Bowl in 2002. In 2006 though, it hit rock bottom as they posted a 4-12 mark. Their offense was as bad as it gets. But, this is a new year! Jeff Garcia takes over for a bevy of ineffective Tampa Bay quarterbacks. Garcia is a proven winner - in San Francisco and Philadelphia. He is high energy and very positive which is what a losing team needs. He also fits nicely into Gruden's offense. He gives the Bucs hope. In Philly, Garcia completed 62% of his passes for 1300 yards in six starts and made a lot of people in Philadelphia forget about Donovan McNabb for a while. That's no small feat. They also made improvements on the defensive side of the ball brining in Cato June from Indianapolis, Jerimiah Trotter from Philly, as well as Ryan Sims and Kevin Carter and drafting Gaines Adams. This should be a superb Bucs defense this year. Seattle has lost 11 of their last 37 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and they dropped three games here last year, so don't just hand this one to the Seahawks. The betting public is remembering the great 2005 Seahawks and the terrible 2006 Buccaneers. They are remembering Seattle's 23-7 road win in the season finale last year. But, this is a new year, with a new QB for Tampa. And, the Bucs remember that humiliating defeat too. Tampa is VERY motivated to start off this year well. Seattle, meanwhile, may just be looking past this game vs. a 4-12 non-division opponent. They have a big division game vs. Arizona coming up in week two. Take the Bucs to keep this one close.
Game: New York Giants at Dallas (Sunday 9/09 8:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on New York Giants +6
In the Sunday night primetime matchup, Tony Romo gets his first chance to redeem himself, again on the big stage. Romo's botched hold for the winning field goal last season allowed the Seahawks to sneak away with a win to advance in the playoffs. The loss may have been the thing that pushed the great Bill Parcells into retirement. We think Romo will do just fine this season but a few nerves may creep in at the start of this game. The Wade Phillips regime in Big D begins here. If he can't perform better than he did in Denver and Buffalo, he won't last long under Jerry Jones. The Giants are looking forward to getting on the field for this one. They are coming off a dissapointing season under Eli Manning who looked like he regressed last year instead of blossoming into his brother (we think he improves this year). They lost Tiki Barber, who is now making news by bashing Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin. And, they had to deal with Michael Strahan's holdout for most of the preseason. They are ready to play and put the offseason behind them. Strahan is in and that means this team always has a shot. We think they have a bit of a chip on their shoulder thanks to all of the hoopla and criticism and we think they are going to be fired up for this game. Everyone is handing Dallas a victory but the game must be played first. New York has had Dallas' number of late winning four of the last six games and covering the spread in all six of them. The G-Men went 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. This game will be closer than most expect and we like the Giants to cover the spread.
Results: 2-3
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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