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Nfl Prediction - September 07, 2008We finished off the preseason with a 4-2-1 performance. We ended hitting 59% for the preseason overall, boosting our bankroll by 8.7 units going into the regular season. I have six week one picks. My week 1 computer predictions and office pool picks are up!  Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Detroit at Atlanta (Sunday 9/07 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Lions went to more of an air attack under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Martz is now gone, replaced by Jim Colletto who promises greater emphasis on the running game. But the Lions will be doing the running without Kevin Jones, yet another Lion's first round bust. That leaves the running to a trio of unproven backs, and the hope is that one will emerge. That's not the best way to enter game. A bigger question for the Lions is, can they stop anyone from throwing the ball? It doesn't look like it. Coach Rod Marinelli has brought in three Tampa Bay castoffs to help in Brian Kelly, Dwight Smith and Kalvin Pearson. But guess what? They are not in Tampa Bay for a reason. The NFC South seems up for grabs every year, with each team getting a turn at winning. Not only has no team repeated since the realignment in '02, but no team that won has even finished with a winning record! Last year Coach Petrino lost this Atlanta team completely, and they will welcome Mike Smith. The Falcons now have two breakaway runners in the backfield in Turner and Norwood - both capable of going the distance on each touch. The Lions swept their preseason games, and that makes this line a bit faulty. This is a team that for years has had absolutely no success on the road. There aren't any changes to this year's version that would lead you to believe things will do an about face in 2008. How bad are they on the road? They are just 8-48 straight-up on the road the last seven years, so we are looking at a team that has managed to win one out of every six games on the road for seven years, as a road favorite? Last year the Lions allowed 34.5 points per game on the road, the highest total in the NFL. There just isn't enough change to warrant anything being different. It's hard to win on the road in the NFL, even against a team like Atlanta. I will back the Falcons here to take their home opener. Game: Kansas City at New England (Sunday 9/07 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +15.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The New England Patriots seemed destined for a 19-0 unblemished season in 2007. They were one game away from being annointed the greatest football team of all time, but the Giants had something to say about that. As good as this team was early-on in 2007, it is virtually impossible to sustain what the Patroits were doing the first half of last season. Fortunately for us, those gaudy numbers are built into this line. The Pats opened last season with eight straight covers, averaging 40 points per game. It seemed there was no pointspread big enough. Then things changed. The Pats faced a double-digit line in 10 of their last 11 games and managed just two ATS wins, finishing the season 2-9 ATS. An unstoppable offense that scored 34+ points in nine of their first ten games scored 34+ just once in their final nine games. The odds-makers made an adjustment, and the Pats just couldn't sustain the ridiculous heights they reached in the first half of the season. Make no mistake, they will again be good this year. But, I don't think they dominate as they did in the first half of last year. The Chiefs had trouble moving the ball last season, but their defense held them in games. Unfortunately, injuries piled up and the weak offense ended up wearing down a very good defense late in the year. This is a Chiefs defense that before their breakdown, held nine of eleven opponents to 20 points or less. That includes going on the road to Indianapolis and allowing just 13 to the high scoring Colts, and just 16 to the Chargers. This is an inflated line and we'll take the points. Game: Arizona at San Francisco (Sunday 9/07 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) I am not sure what this Arizona team has done over the last six years to warrant a road favorite role in this game. The fact is, this team has been the second coming of the Lions in regards to road futility. The Cardinals leave the desert and become become a truly awful team. They have amassed a woeful 7-38 straight-up mark the last 45 times they boarded a plane to take the road in the NFL. They have also gone just 14-32 ATS in those games. When instilled as a road favorite, they have won just once in five tries over the past six years, having lost to this San Francisco team twice last season. The Niners will have a new look on offense in two ways. J.T. O'Sullivan spent last year in Detroit with offensive coordinator Mike Martz. They Martz-O'Sullivan connection resulted in 30+ point performances in two pre-season games. The Niners added some short term help by bringing in Issac Bruce, OT Barry Sims, LB Takeo Spikes and specialist Allan Rossum. They also added DeShaun Foster, and Justin Smith. The Niners will be improved, and with the inept Cards on the road, I like the home team's chance at an outright win, or at least a very close loss. Game: Dallas at Cleveland (Sunday 9/07 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Cleveland +6 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 49 -110 Cleveland may still be the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL odds-makers. Even after an incredible 2006 season, they still get no respect. Or maybe it's just that the public loves Dallas. How else can you explain a 10-win team getting over a field goal at home? This is a team that came into its own last season after a 2-3 start. The difference was a QB in Derek Anderson that could lead the team down field consistently. Anderson threw for nearly 4,000 yards, and finished with 29 TD tosses. Romeo Crennel benched Charlie Frye in the first half of the opener vs the Steelers, and never looked back. Once Anderson got it going the Browns finished superb, going 8-3 behind Anderson. His success had a side effect that largely went unnoticed. The Browns defense was on the field constantly early, and allowed 30+ points in seven of the first ten games. Down the stretch, the Browns defense was much better, as they were on the field less and less, getting blows by an offense that could stay on the field. They did not allow a 30 point game in their last six. A defense that had allowed 29.4 ppg over the first 10 was suddenly allowing 14.7 ppg in their last six. The Browns went 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS with Anderson as their starter at home. That includes 2-0 as a home dog. Dallas opened the season at 12-1 last year, the only blemish was quite excusable, to the New England Patriots. Something happened to this team from that point on, however. They finished 1-3, and suddenly a team that scored no less than 24 points in each of the first 13 games, could muster just 6, 20, 6 and 17 in their final four games (12 ppg). They failed to cover the spread in all five of their final games. A lot had to do with the disappointing finish by Tony Romo. He was just 66-130 over those last four games, with just two TD's compared to 5 INT's. Romo has been plagued by ups and downs in his short career, and his lack of consistency has hurt the Cowboys when they needed him the most. The Cowboys struggled in games at Detroit, Buffalo, and Carolina - all teams they should of walked all over. They couldn't cover the number in any of those games as a road favorite. I think the Browns can stay with this Dallas team, as they proved they could hang with anyone last year at the dog-pound. An upset isn't out of the question. The improvements shown by this Cleveland team on the defensive end once they had a competent offense gives them hope. Combine that with the Dallas decline late last season, and the fact that it is week one, where teams aren't in sync yet, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring affair. This game has the highest total for week one, pushing close to 50. Neither offense will be in mid-season form yet, so I'll take the UNDER too. Results: 3-3 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-August-27-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-25-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-23-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-August-18-2008 |
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