Nfl Pick Of The Week - September 04, 2009

We posted another winning week in week three of the preseason, going 3-2 (60%). I've won 10 of my last 16 picks and are up on the season overall.

In case you missed it, check out my 2009 Season Wins Predictions (65% lifetime) and my NFL Team-By-Team predictions: AFC North, AFC Sorth, AFC East, AFC West, NFC West, NFC East, NFC South, NFC North.

This week I have lots of picks in 12 of the games. Why so many? Because all of them have positive expectation. I thought about holding some back because it's a lot of picks but in the end I decided not to do that for two reasons. First, I believe most clients want to know every game I like and personally bet. Second, I would have to arbitrarily/randomly decide which games to hold back since I like them all. In the end, I decided to just let you know all of the games I am playing myself. Good luck to you. 

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Detroit at Buffalo (Thursday 9/03 6:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Detroit +3.5 (-120) (risk 4 to win 3.3)

The Lions did not win a game last year in the regular season. But, they did run the table in the preseason. They have already won two games this preseason and it's becoming evident that this team is about winning in the NFLX. The Lions may have an advantage in this game thanks to the continuing QB battle between rookie Matthew Stafford and veteran Dante Culpepper. In a game that usually sees starters rested, each of these top two QBs will likely see more time than the typical game four. The Bills coach Dick Juaron has never had a winning preseason as coach of the Bills and he will likely just run the clock and let the game pass. Juaron is just 13-22 in his 35 preseason coached games and that number is even worse in game four as he is just 2-6. I look for the Lions to at the very least cover this one, if not come away with the outright win.

For Andy Reid, the preseason has never been about winning as he brings a 16-27 mark into this one. He's just 2-8 in preseason finales! So expect the Eagles starters to see little of the field. Their offense should be very vanilla, trying to run the clock and go home healthy to get ready for the opener. The Jets starters won last week for Coach Ryan after the rookies and reserves dropped the first two. Guess who we are seeing in this game? That's right - the reserves. The Jets have seen enough from rookie QB Mark Sanchez who has had a good showing,  and will likely play very little if at all here.  I expect the Jets will be running vanilla plays here as well. The Eagles have averaged 51.6 points per preseason game while Jets games have averaged 37.6. But, I expect this to be a much quicker, lower scoring game. I like the UNDER in this one.

When Tom Brady went down with his sore shoulder after getting pummeld last week, coach Belichick must have had his stomach churning. But, the reports are he is fine and threw balls 25 yards early this week. It is unlikely that he will play, but in week four most starting QB's, if they make it onto the field, it is usually just for a cameo anyway so the oddsmakers certainly have over-reacted here with the line. The Giants are going to take long looks at Andre Woodson and Rhett Bomar to fill the third QB spot, so there is no advantage there. Home underdogs in week four have a superb pedigree and coach Belichick's teams have a winning record in week four, so no gimmie here for the Giants. The G-Men are just 15-32 ATS in their last 47 preseason games vs. AFC opponents. They are also 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games in the final two weeks of the preseason. I'll take New England and the points here.

The Redskins offense have been dreadful in the three games thus far generating just 14 ppg. Jim Zorn has yet to win a game three or four in the preseason for the Skins and won't likely be out to win anything here either. Instead he will be looking to keep the team healthy and get ready for the opener. While the Redskins won last week behind Jason Campbell's good performance, the rest of the Skins QB's have failed to much in terms of putting points on the board. Washington dropped a 24-3 decision to the Jags last year and Zorn showed he wasn't putting anything into game four. He simply ran the clock and went home. This one figures to be played in similar fashion and I like the UNDER here.

The Colts historically did not fare well in the preseason under former coach Tony Dungy. New head coach Jim Caldwell won't likely do anything different, but there's reasons to like the Colts here. Rookie QB Curtis Painter that has thrown for 60% completions and 338 yards so far. If he plays like that here, this Colts offense can score, even with Manning watching from the sidelines. The Bengals may have Carson Palmer after missing two games, but JT O'Sullivan and Jordan Palmer (Carson's brother) will take most of the snaps and Painter has outplayed them both. Marvin Lewis has never been one for winning here as he has a losing record as Bengals coach in the preseason. I like getting more than a FG in these games and will back the Colts here.

Both the Ravens and Falcons have had good preseasons with the Falcons at 2-1 and the Ravens entering unbeaten. The Ravens will attempt to become the 24th team to finish the NFLX unbeaten. They ran the table in 2000 and it led to the franchise's only SuperBowl win. The Ravens defense has been playing well and one player that will get some extended minutes is Terrell Suggs who has missed all games with a heel injury. So, he could make a difference lining up against second and third stringers. Jerious Norwood will sit for the Falcons as will safety William Moore. Underdogs coming off back-to-back wins in the final weeks of the preseason hit at a 6&% rate ATS. I'll go with the Ravens and the points here.

The Packers look like a team that means business this season. They have looked as good as anyone entering here at 3-0, crushing the opposition to the tune of 31 points per game. But htis has come primarily on the strength of the arm of Aaron Rodgers who has been near perfect. He will probably play just one series here and turn it over to Brian Brohm for the remainder of this game. The Titans have dropped their last two games and after last year's big season, really don't have many holes to fill here. They just want to get out of this one healthy, we won't see many starters and those that play will be out very quickly. The Packers seem to focused on winning and I like them getting more than a field goal. I also like this one to come in UNDER the total. The Packers defense recorded a shutout in week one and Tennessee's offense is averaging just 18.7 points per game. The Titans are 16-6 UNDER in their last 22 preseason games with a total set between 35 and 42. They are also 9-0 UNDER under Jef Fisher at home coming off a loss.

Both of these teams enter this game feeling fairly confident as they are both at 2-1 entering the finale. The Browns will be looking at two QB's in Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. That should result in an abnormal amount of minutes for competent quarterbacks here. The Browns will have a distinct offensive advantage here as Jay Cutler will play very little in this game. Cleveland could rattle off a lot of points with both potential starting QB's getting a lot of reps vs. inexperienced secondaries. Chicago is just 1-9 ATS in their last ten preseason games vs. teams with a winning record. They are also 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games in the last two weeks of the preseason. I like the Browns and the OVER here.

Something has to give in this one as both teams will enter with perfect 3-0 marks and only one will leave unblemished. The Saints have scored 100 points thus far this year. They put up 45 last game on the Raiders. With Brees taking very few snaps in this game, I don't expect the same offensive explosion. But, this team is still capable of putting some points on the board. The Dolphins Tony Sparano has shown a penchant to create a winning attitude. In his two seasons at the helm, he has led the Dolphins to a 6-1 preseason mark and and six straight wins including a win vs New Orleans last year. Sean Payton has a winning record in every week of the preseason except for week four. Underdogs coming into the final weeks of the preseason coming off two straight wins, have hit at a 67% mark ATS. I like the Dolphins in a high-scoring game.

This game started with St. Louis favored by 2.5 points and now has them as a home underdog. Home dogs don't come too often in the NFL preseason but when they do they have been gold, especially in the final week of the preseason. Certain dogs in this situation have produced 67% ATS winners including a 6-2 record over the past three seasons. Steve Spagnuolo has won two of his three games and can really get his team confident going into the regular season with another win here. Being at home, he should still be inclined to impress, even if this game is not meaningful. Todd Haley has gone 0-3 and appears not to really care. A win here won't make much of a difference for him. Matt Cassel is completely out with a strained MCL. The Chiefs are 1-10 ATS now in preseason games the past three seasons including 0-6 ATS as a favorite. I like the home dog here.

It is hard to imagine a team that has looked worse than the Raiders did last week. That was just painful to watch. The starters were down 31-0 at the half last week to the Saints and it doesn't bode well for this team this season. The Saints had their way with both the running game, which tallied over 200 yards, and the passing game. Oakland committed five turnovers and managed just nine first downs all game long, with their starters playing most of the way. Now the players who aren't good enough to start for this really bad team take over in game four. Seattle first year head coach Jim Mora picked up right where Mike Holmgren left off and that is playing here to win as the Seahawks are unbeaten at 3-0. Seattle is now 22-10 ATS in their last 32 preseason games in weeks three and four. It's hard to take the Raiders seriously here and the Seahawks have a long history of winning these games which apparently hasn't changed under Mora.

The 49ers come into this game with an unblemished 3-0 mark. If there is one thing clear about Coach Mike Singletary, he is a passionate coach that expects 100% from his players regardless of the meaning of the game. He established that when he took over mid-season a year ago with a fiery press conference, and continues in the preseason this year as well. So far, his players have largely responded positively. The Niners were 3-8 a year ago but finished strong behind Singletary who closed out the 2008 season at 4-1. He is definitely changing the culture of this team and his impact hasn't gone unnoticed. The Chargers underachieved a year ago. Injuries were a big part of that and they know they are talented but a lot of that talent won't be on the field long for this one, if at all. I like the Niners to finish unbeaten and will go with them in this one.

Results: 7-8

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• View week 2 nfl picks here.
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• Here we show our week five nfl picks.
• Check out our updated nfl picks week 6.
• Hop over to our nfl week seven picks here.
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• View our updated nfl picks week nine .
• Here we show our week 10 nfl picks.
• Hop over to our week 11 nfl picks here.
• Take a look at our nfl picks week twelve here.
• Here we show our week 13 nfl picks.
• Take a look at our week one nfl picks here.
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• Updated today: 2009 NFL picks.
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• Here we show our NFL ATS standings.
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• Here we show our week fourteen nfl picks.
• Check out week 15 nfl picks here.
• Updated today: nfl picks week 16.
• Take a look at our nfl picks week seventeen here.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-August-26-2009
The Dolphins and Bucs meet in a long-standing preseason rivalry that has seen 23 games played, with Miami holding the advantage at 14-9. These teams are both still exploring starting QB's which sh...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-24-2009
Yes, this is a meaningless game in some sense as it's just a preseason game. But in another key way, it's not meaningless at all. First-year coach Rex Ryan and the Jets lost their opener....

NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2009
Each of these teams is seeking its first win of the NFLX. The Bucs have a battle at QB and Luke McCown did little to help his cause as he threw for just 19 yards in his start vs the Titans. Byron Left...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-20-2009
It is rare to see an NFL preseason pointspread in this range except for week three, when you see starters getting a lot of time on the field. It certainly makes you look hard at the abundance of point...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-11-2009
This exhibition game offers substantial history to follow as it relates to coaching philosophies. This year marks the 10th for Andy Reid as head coach of the Eagles and the ninth for Belichick leading...