darrell,

We're off a dissapointing week that pushed our record to .500 (11-11). We look to end the preseason on an up-note to take a profit into week one of the regular season. I've got five picks this week.

Check out my 12-month performance here.

$8K PRIZE POOL $5,000 FOR FIRST PLACE! Enter now

Please Tell A Friend about this newsletter and they'll thank you!

Good luck today...

Game: Buffalo at Detroit (Thursday 8/31 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on OVER 35

Buffalo games are averaging 46.3 points per game this preseason. Detroit's are much lower at 31.0. That figure was dragged down last week as they put up just 3 points vs. Oakland. Three takeaways from that: 1. This total is posted extra low due to the recency of that low scoring game. 2. Detroit scored 20 and 16 in their two prior games. And 3. They still allowed 21 points to the Raiders. The bottom line is that Detroit should score closer to their games 1+2 average of 18 this week. Buffalo should also get 20+ against Detroit. Buffalo will be trying here as they enter 0-3. Detroit would like to put forth a better offensive showing leading into the season. Dick Juron-coached teams are 9-0 OVER in the final two weeks of the preseason. The line here should be a few points higher and as such, we'll jump on the OVER.

Chicago's vaunted defense isn't exerting itself this preseason. Outside of one good showing against San Diego, they gave up 51 combined points to San Francisco and Arizona. Cleveland has scored 20 points in each of their last two games and could easily get there again this week. Chicago's offense will be putting forth a strong effort in this game. Unlike many teams that are taking this fourth game "off," Chicago has issues on offense that need to be addressed. The Bears are 10-2 OVER on the road in the preseason the last decade with a total under 35. I see this total as being too low and we'll go OVER.

Not too sure why Arizona is favored here. Sure, they are 2-1 this preseason but Denver has played better. The Broncos are also 2-1 and they have a coach in Mike Shannahan that likes to win in the preseason. While Denny's Green preseason record with the Cards is 6-5, Shannahan's is 34-21. Despite getting the win last game against Houston, Shannahan knows the Broncos underperformed. History says he'll bounce back here as Denver is 14-5 ATS after an ATS loss in the preseason with him as coach. Preseason underdogs off a couple of home wins are excellent plays covering 78% of the time. Denver is taking this game a bit more seriously I think as well. The starting running back job is wide open. Tatum Bell, Mike Bell and Cedric Cobbs will all be laying it on the line to try to win the job. Getting more than a field goal here is the icing on the cake. Broncos plus the points.

Well, Art Shell has shown us he is playing for keeps. The Raiders are 4-0 so far this preseason as their defense has held opponents to just 8 points per game. Shell is no dummy and he seems to be trying hard to get this team in the habit of winning. I see no reason for him to let up here in the final game. That would only serve to undermine the momentum he has built up thus far. That momentum should serve us well here as teams near pick'em off 2+ wins hit at a 78% ATS in the NFL preseason. Two Seattle starters were injured last week - Tight End Itula Mili and Safety Mike Green. Head coach Mike Holmgren said "It doesn't look too good." It's only human nature after that happens to back off and reduce the risk of further injuries. Seattle has nothing to prove and I expect them to give a weak effort here while risking their starters very little if at all.

Indianapolis was 0-5 in the preseason last year and this season they are 1-2 so far. No surprise as Tony Dungy is just 18-23 in preseason play. Marvin Lewis is 7-4 and his team is on some kind of mission this preseason. They scored just 19 against Washington in game one. Then they exploded for 44 and 48 in games two and three. It's men against boys so far. They have won by an average of 20 points per game in their first three games. Visiting teams with winning records vs. home teams with just one win produce at an excellent rate in week 4. Bengals minus the points.