Football Picks Free - September 02, 2010

Below I share my take on the potential of an 18-game NFL regular season. After winning in weeks one and two (and starting off week three at 3-1), we stumbled on Saturday, suffering our first losing week of the preseason.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	80-53 last 133 picks	60%	+$3170
NBA	104-80 last 184 picks	57%	+$3530
NFL	20-19 Season-to-Date	51%	+$10
NHL	369-273 last 642 picks	57%	+$17300
WNBA	55-42 last 97 picks	57%	+$2630
TOTAL			+$32680

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: New England at New York Giants (Thursday 9/02 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New England +3 (-105) (risk 2 to win 1.9)

Bill Bellichick had a laydown year in 2008 after having a lot of success in these exhibition games. The Pats went 0-4 in '08, and he has returned to form, as it likely ate at him given his competitive nature. The Pats have since gone 7-3, and when Belichick has an agenda, he is hard to go against. Tom Caughlin in his early years won a lot here, but sits at just 5-10 in his last 15. The Giants brought it against their big rival the New York Jets in week one, but having done nothing since, it looks like they have packed it in. Layer on top of that the fact that the Giants are riding a 9-24 ATS mark in the final two weeks of the preseason, and we have a play on the dog here.

This is a game that features two coaches that on the surface appear to care about what happens in the preseason. Both coaches own winning preseason records. Mike Singletary is 6-1 in his preseason games and Norv Turner is 5-0 in game 4's. The Chargers are averaging over 40 points per game this preseason and San Francisco games have averaged nearly 44 per game. I don't see a whole lot changing and I expect this game to sail over the total.

Falcons head coach Mike Smith has put together a winning record in his short time at the helm. While Jack Del Rio entered this season with a very good preseason record, his team is 1-2 this season. Their problem has been lack of a running game (averaging just 59 yards per game) and that bodes well for Atlanta here as favorites with a horrible running game are just 1-7 ATS the past six seasons during the preseason. I like Atlanta to at least keep this close.

The Jets have barely scored at all the entire preseason, while their defense has shined. The last two games the Jets have played would barely top this total combined. I don't expect a sudden opening up of the offense in this one, risking injury the week before the games become meaningful. And with their defense as good and deep as it is, I also don't expect the Eagles to score a lot. I like the UNDER here.

The Cowboys are a home dog here and that's signficant for a few reasons. One, home underdogs in the preseason shine, especially in week four (68% and 3-1 last season). Two, the Boys simply win their preseason home games. They have won 15 of their last 19 straight-up at home. And, they should be motivated to perform well here. Wade Phillips has indicated he is not happy with the team's performance this preseason and they were simply embarrassed last week vs. Houston. That doesn't sit well with a coach who has a winning preseason record. While Tony Sparano has shown that he wants to win preseason games, I think Dallas has more motivation here.

The Ravens are looking for their 2nd straight 4-0 sweep in the preseason. If they do get the win here, it will be the fifth time in the last thirteen seasons that they have produced a perfect preseason record (most of any team). So, it appears that someone in this organization wants to win these gaems. The Ravens are 32-18 in their last 50, so getting points with a coach that has won seven staright is the right side here. Steve Spagnuolo has done a good job in his two years in these games, but not against someone willing to fight for the win. His personnel just doesn't matchup here. The Rams have allowed 27 points per game which in the preseason is tremendously high. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed just 25 total points in three games. I like Baltimore with the points in this one.

Sean Peyton has played these games through recently, going 5-2 over the last two years. He is pushing his team, even in the preseason, to avoid the complacency that often comes after a Super Bowl win. Jeff Fisher is 30-25 in preseason games, but at 1-2 this season it looks like he has eased up on the intensity we have seen in the past. Once you get into the touchdown range in these meaningless games, the number becomes hard to topple and teams getting 7+ have a very strong track record ATS (last week the Rams won outright as a 7.5 dog). The road team has won and covered four straight in this series in the preseason. We have seen coach Fisher lose a game four straight-up to the Packers, giving 7 points, so no guarantees he turns it on here. I like New Orleans in this spot.

If your wondering why the Chiefs are a nearly touchdown choice here, so am I. The last time the Chiefs had a winning preseason was all the way back to 2002-03, and they have since gone 6-25 ATS. They have lost their last 10 ATS. Want a solid piece of evidence that this number is loaded with value on the Packers? The Chiefs have not won a preseason game by more than 4 points in their last 25 tries! On top of that, second year coach Todd Haley hasn't ever won a game in the preseason. Maybe the oddsmakers know something I don't, but from what I can see, the Pack and the points is the way to go in this game.

These teams could both use an emotional lift with a win in game four here but the fact is, Tampa Bay needs one more than Houston. The Bucs started 0-7 last year and 1-12 through their first 13 games. They lost game four of the preseason a year ago to Houston. I'm not sure if a win means that much to Raheem Morris, but he has a young fragile team, and getting out on a winning note might be deemed motivational here. That is especially true since the Bucs were held to under 200 yards and just eight first downs last game (their first ATS loss of the preseason). While they don't matchup well with good teams playing starters most of the way, they do in this spot. Houston is off a big matchup vs. intrastate rival (and potential Super Bowl team) Dallas so I don't expect them to get up fo rthis one. I like Tampa Bay here.

Oftentimes the longer a coach has been on the sidelines, the less likely it becomes for him to push for wins in these games. Lovie Smith has basically taken a knee this preseason and as a result, the Bears enter this one at 0-3. Chicago has been doubled-up on the scorboard losing by a combined count of 71-36. Eric Mangini has never had a losing preseason, and he seems to save the best for last. His team has put up 27 points already twice this season. With his job in potential jeopordy, every win, even the meaningless ones, count for something. He has only lost once in a game four, while most teams take the proverbial knee. I look for a solid effort from the Browns here, while the Bears watch the clock tick down in an effort to get out injury-free. Cleveland in this one.

The Cardinals squeaked out a home win in week one of this season but that was their first home win in the preseason in their last eight games! Mike Shanahan is the active king in the NFLX. He has an overall record of 43-20, and is already 2-1 this season. He not only has the best record and most wins, his best foot comes forward in game four. Since 1997 Shanahan has amassed a 10-2 mark in the final week of the preseason, so seeing him on the plus side of a big number is definately the place to be. Ken Wisenhunt has shown no interest in these games, as his Arizona team is 4-11 in the 15 he has coached. He has also taken the doughnut in week four (0-3). Sometimes 0-3 can be decieving but not in this case as his Arizona teams have been outscored 68-17 in game four, including a shutout last year. Finally, Wisenhunt is 0-6 ATS as a favorite in the preseason. Washington should keep this close if not win.

Results: 5-5

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• View our updated nfl picks week 4.
• Check out nfl week five picks here.
• Check out nfl week 6 picks here.
• View nfl picks week 7 here.
• Updated today: nfl picks week 8.
• View nfl week nine picks here.
• Hop over to our nfl picks week ten here.
• Don't forget to read our week 11 nfl picks here.
• View our updated nfl week twelve picks.
• Check out week thirteen nfl picks here.
• Don't forget to read our nfl week fourteen picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week 15 picks.
• Don't forget to read our nfl week three picks here.
• Take a look at our 2010 NFL predictions-win totals here.
• Updated today: nfl picks week one .
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• View football handicapping services here.
• View our updated expert nfl picks.
• View our 2010 NFL football picks results here.
• Check out our updated nfl spread picks.
• View nfl office pool picks here.
• View NFL game picks here.
• Check out Why to bet NFL underdogs here.
• Take a look at our How to bet the NFL playoffs here.
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• Don't forget to visit our How to bet the Super Bowl.
• View our updated halftime prop bets.
• Check out nfl picks week sixteen here.
• View nfl picks week 17 here.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-August-28-2010
Eric Mangini has proven that he plays to win in these games, especially as the regular season approaches. He has led the Cleveland Browns to a 6-2 mark in weeks three and four in the preseason. The Br...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-25-2010
There was a time when Bill Belichick went all out to win these games as he started his coaching career in the preseason going 13-4. He has since had a losing straight up record at 12-14. Steve Sp...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-22-2010
Brad Childress of the Vikings has now won four of five preseason games, and a look at last week confirms he is out to win. While most teams are rotating in three or four QBs with the starter getting v...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-21-2010
It would appear that the Steelers dominated the Lions at home last week as they whipped-up on them pretty good in a 23-7 final. A closer look reveals that simply wasn't the case, as the Lions outg...

NFL-Football-Picks-August-18-2010
The Colts have a lethal offense behind Peyton Manning in the regular season and their offense is set with little need to test things out. There seems to be an organizational policy that when the games...