Free Nfl Spread Picks - October 31, 2010

We had our best NFL week ever in ten years last week, going 12-2 for +30.6 units ($3,060 for $100 players). On the NFL season we are now 53-21 (72%) for +85.3 units.

ESPN featured my analysis again this week here.

If you aren't getting my Parlay Club picks (hitting 71% since start of football) and want them, let me know.

This week we have a lot of picks. The reason? My systems are working and these are the plays that are coming from those winnings systems. It's a lot units, but we are very diversified because of the large number of plays. While pressing by risking more than 5% of our bankroll on any given play would be stupid, playing a lot of plays (diversification) with solid money managemnt doesn't introduce any more inherent risk. Just be sure you risk no more than 1% of your bankroll per unit.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	9-6 last 15 picks	60%	+$210
NBA	104-80 last 184 picks	57%	+$3530
NFL	53-21 last 74 picks	72%	+$8530
NHL	18-9 last 27 picks	67%	+$1490
PARLAY	27-11 last 38 picks	71%	+$2250
WNBA	59-44 last 103 picks	57%	+$3370
TOTAL			+$19380

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Denver vs. San Francisco (Sunday 10/31 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total OVER 42 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

After the game they endured last week, Broncos players and coaches are probably very glad to be able to hop a plane out of the country. We were on the Raiders as a 5-unit pick last week and it panned out very nicely. But Denver isn't THAT bad. Every once in awhile, we see a team lay an egg where nothing goes right and last week was a prime example. San Francisco does appear to be THAT bad. I really thought that Mike Singletary would impose his will on this team, but rumors to the contrary persist and are founded by the Niners’ 1-6 record. They now start Troy Smith at QB and maybe he provides some sort of spark. The bigger problem is that the Niners’ defense just can't stop anyone. I expect Kyle Orton, who is having a very good year, to have a big game. Denver has played OVER in six of their last seven games thanks in large part to a very pourous defense that is allowing 28.4 points per game. The Broncos are now 33-16-3 to the OVER after a loss including 9-0 OVER after a 14+ point loss. I like this game to go OVER the total.

The talent level says 5-1, but the record says 1-5. Such is the fate of the Dallas Cowboys. The wise coach Bill Parcels once said, "You are what the record says you are" and right now Dallas is just not a good team. We went against them Monday night and despite getting three Giants turnovers and a punt return TD to start the game, the Cowboys still got destroyed. I've questioned Dallas' play calling and coaching all season, but now things get worse without Tony Romo leading the offense. Jon Kitna has to step in and make things happen for Dallas and his last two seasons as a starter saw him top the 20 INT mark both years. The Dallas run game is ranked 30th in the league, producing just 86 yards per game. Fortunately, he will be facing a Jacksonville defense that hasn't done much of anything, so Dallas will score here, but so will the Jaguars. David Garrard is back at the helm in this one and the Dallas defense is allowing over 25 points per game, ranked #27 in the league. The Cowboys are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Here we have a very bad team with their backup quarterback making his first start, playing nearly a touchdown. I like the Jags to cover. I also like the OVER in this game. As a home favorite of 3.5-10, Dallas has played each of the last four OVER. Meanwhile, the Jags in the role as a dog from 3.5-10, have played 6-1 to the OVER. In October games, Wade Phillips coached teams are 25-9 OVER and also 13-4 OVER in games when he's facing a defense that allows 5.7+ yards per play. I like Jacksonville and the OVER here.

Many thought that this Cincinnati team was Super Bowl material to start the season. But, a 2-4 start says otherwise. Carson Palmer has not had the type of year for which the Bengals had hoped. The offensive line is also struggling to open holes for Cedric Benson, who is rushing at under 4 yards per carry on the season. In their four losses, they have given up 31 points per game. Two of those losses came against supposedly bad teams in Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Miami's three losses have come against the Jets, New England and Pittsburgh! The Fins have had a nearly impossible schedule with the last five games against New England, the Jets, Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. To their credit they have held serve at 3-3 and were competitive in all but one of those games. They have risen to the occasion as an underdog, having gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 and 13-3 ATS as a road dog in their last 16. The Bengals are the NFL's worst team as a favorite where they are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 in that role including 1-10 ATS since last season. Under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are 11-3 ATS as a road underdog including 6-0 as a dog of 3 points or less. Marvin Lewis is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite. Miami has played the tougher schedule, has the better record, the better team and is in a better situation. Wrong team favored. Miami covers.

The Lions may not show it in their 1-5 record, but this team is starting to accumulate playmakers and they have shored-up some real soft spots on defense. They now get Matthew Stafford back at QB and he gets to go against a pass defense that is allowing nearly 300 yards per game. Their reputation as a poor team and the losses to back that up is what continues to make them a good ATS choice. The Lions are 5-1 ATS to start the season and value remains. Washington was expected to be much better on offense with McNabb at QB, but the Skins who only reached 20 points on five occasions last year, have only done so twice this year through seven games. The bigger problem is the defense which ranks dead last in the NFC and second from the bottom overall. The Lions now have the offensive firepower to take advantage of the Skins’ inability to defend as they have averaged 30 points per game in their last three. Detroit is coming off a bye and should be well prepared for this game.

This is a buy low (Green Bay) and sell high (New York) pick. The Green Bay Packers have been hit hard by the injury bug and have been a bit overvalued in the early going. We have been fading them. Now I think the worm has turned and I like them in this spot. As long as Aaron Rodgers is standing under center, the Packers are a dangerous team, especially as an underdog. As a favorite, this team hasn't produced. But, the Packers’ last 15 games have seen them lose by no more than 3 points and that is basically a full season. That means that this team, regardless of injuries, is in every game they play, so getting a bundle here is value-laden. The Jets are a great run-stopping defense but the Packers don't run, especially since Ryan Grant went down. Green Bay passes and uses the pass as a running game. The Jets rank No. 22 in the league in defending the pass, so the Packers are well suited to play against this defense. The Jets’ defense has not been as good as last year's which ranked No. 1. This year they are good, but only ranked #12 in yards allowed. So the reputation is bigger than the actual talent, at least at this point. Under Mike McCarthy, Green Bay is 23-12 ATS on the road including 12-4 as an underdog of 7 or fewer points. The Packers are getting it done on the road at 21-10 ATS in their last 31 and I like them to keep this game close. I also like the UNDER in this game. The Pack have played UNDER in four of their last five on the road and they are 6-0 UNDER since last season on the road coming off a win. The Jets off their bye week have played to a 9-2 mark to the UNDER. I like Green Bay to cover and for the total to stay UNDER.

The Rams have won three games already this season, already outperforming their win total from a year ago. Bettors have suddently embraced this team, with nearly 80% on them this week. I won't be among them. I like where this Panthers team is headed. We were on Carolina last week as the Panthers got their first win and I think they come into this one beaming with confidence. They played the Super Bowl winning Saints to within 2 points on the road. Matt Moore somewhat came into his own last week, passing for over 300 yards and two TDs, and the Carolina offense appears to be revived. This is a St. Louis team that is improved, but is still young, and more than capable of losing to anyone in the NFL as they proved by dropping their game to the Lions by 38 points. The Panthers have been picking up the cash as a road dog of 3 or less where they are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18. Under John Fox, this team is 41-27 ATS as an underdog including 31-18 ATS as a road dog. Their offense appears ready to step up and I like the Panthers to notch their second straight win, or at least keep this game close. I also like the OVER. Carolina has played OVER to a 5-1 mark as a dog of 3 or less. The Rams have shown the ability to score at a rate much higher than a year ago, where they reached 20 just twice, having done so three times this season. I expect more scoring here than this low number. Carolina covers and the total finishes OVER.

The NFL has sure turned upside down since a year ago. Out of eight conferences, seven are led by teams that did not make the playoffs last year. One of those teams is Kansas City, sitting at 4-2. The Bills aren't one of them. In fact, Buffalo is winless through their first six games. Last week's 42-20 win solidified the belief by many that this Chiefs team is for real. They are playing very well this year with the only losses coming to Indianapolis and Houston. But, even against good team, there are spots that jump out to fade them. This is one of them. Despite their 0-6 record, Buffalo has been very competitive vs. some good teams this season. They stayed within 8 points of New England, Baltimore and Miami. Last week they fought very hard vs. Baltimore, even coming back late in the game to force overtime. If not for a questionable fumble call in OT, Buffalo might have upset the Ravens. That speaks to their character and ability. The Bills have now gone 6-1 ATS on the road vs. a team with a winning home record in their last seven. As bad as they have been, they are a cover machine as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Chiefs find themselves in a new role as a favorite, but covering just one of their last eight as a chalk. The last ten times they have lost 3+ straight games, they have posted a 9-1 ATS mark the next game out. I like Buffalo to cover this game.

The San Diego Chargers are proving two things. Statistics don't mean a thing if you're not winning, and turnovers and poor special teams play are going to kill you. As I wrote about last week, the Chargers lead the league in both offense and defense but they are now 2-5 through seven games. Last week they again out-gained their opponent 363 to 179 but still lost! Out of 32 teams, the Chargers are ranked 31st in turnover margin and 32nd (dead last) in special teams. If this team ever limits their mistakes, they could be dangerous. But for now, this is simply a team that finds ways to lose. Suddenly the Tennessee Titans, who started 0-6 last year, are picking up where they left off two years ago. What people don't realize is that, aside from that 0-6 debacle to open the season in '09, the Titans are 26-7 in their last 33 games! They have also won eight of their last ten road games straight-up. They have done the most damage as a dog, where they are 11-2 ATS when getting 3.5-10 points. The Chargers are finding ways to lose games they are supposed to win, leaving them at 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite. Here we have a 5-2 team that is winning games by an average of 12 points per game, facing a 2-5 team that can't get out of their own way. Why is the worse team favored? I like Tennessee to cover here.

The New England Patriots have not been the same team since trading Randy Moss. Sure, Tom Brady is still there, and they have a slew of possession receivers. But, they lack the stretch-the-field ability now. Last week Tom Brady threw for just 159 yards in a 23-20 win over San Diego. The Pats offense mustered all of 179 yards of offense in that game. But, the Patriots scored 23 points and won, masking the fact that it was an awful offensive performance. Minnesota is a team that is better than their record. They are a desperate team that is going to come out with a lot of emotion for this game. When things hit rock bottom as they have here (2-4 record, coming off a bitter loss, and their QB ailing), oftentimes it's time to back a team. This number is inflated with Brett Favre nursing ankle issues. But knowing Favre, he will come out and somehow produce a big game, especially against a New England secondary that hasn't been able to stop anyone yet. New England ranks 30th in the league in pass defense, giving up 282 yards per game through the air. New England is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 90 or less on the ground in their last game. The Vikings have come up big after a straight-up loss, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 in that situation. I like the Vikings to at least keep this close. I also like the OVER in what I see to be a shootout. New England is finding ways to score, averaging 29.5 ppg. The Vikings are playing to the OVER on the road vs. a team with a winning home record, going 40-21 to the OVER in their last 61. They are also 13-4 OVER the past three seasons vs. teams that average 24+ points per game. The Vikings are also 44-18 OVER on the road following an ATS loss. I like the Vikings and the OVER here.

This line on this game has a lot to do with what happened last year, and not what is happening on the field in 2010. The oddsmakers know people haven't embraced Tampa Bay and their 4-2 record yet, given their 3-13 record a year ago. By the same token, people continue to give the Cardinals too much credit without Kurt Warner at QB. Warner was a huge part of Arizona's success and without him, they just aren't a good team. Is Tampa Bay for real? Let's look a bit closer at their schedule. Their wins haven't come against great teams. But their losses have. Their lone losses have come at the hands of last year's Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints, and what looks to be this year's favorite in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Arizona has already suffered losses of 12, 34 and 31 points. Those 30+ point losses are larger than any they suffered last season through six games. The Cards’ offense is generating a league-low 237 yards per game, and you have to go back to the five-win '07-'08 Niners to find an offense so futile. The Bucs have covered each of their last four on the road and I like them getting points from a bad team.

Results: 9-5

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our nfl week fourteen picks here.
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• Read our nfl picks week twelve here.
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• Take a look at our nfl picks week 7 here.
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• Here we show our nfl week 4 picks.
• Updated today: nfl picks week 2.
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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-October-25-2010
Sometimes in sports it is hard to let go of what happened the previous year and the perception of a team vs. the current reality. The New York Giants opened the season 5-0 a year ago, but that, a...

NFL-Football-Picks-October-22-2010
Sometimes what a team did a year ago at this stage of the season is hard to forget. The Bears were not a good team at this point last season, and that memory still lingers. They started 3-0 but have l...

NFL-Football-Picks-October-18-2010
The AFC South is turning into quite a heavyweight division with a combined record of 14-8. The winner tonight can claim a piece of first place. The Tennessee Titans, fresh off a victory at Dallas, may...

NFL-Football-Picks-October-15-2010
The San Diego Chargers are beating teams at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They are the only NFL team to outgain their opponent in all five games they have played. They have outgaine...

NFL-Football-Picks-October-11-2010
The Minnesota Vikings don't look at all like the team that went to the NFC Championship last season. Brett Favre looks old and tired and unmotivated. On top of it, his focus on foot...