Football Pick - November 02, 2008

We pulled off the perfect 5-0 last week. Combined with our 5-2 CFB Saturday, it was a 10-2 weekend. This week we have six picks including two 4-unit picks.

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Houston at Minnesota (Sunday 11/02 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Texans have been at home the entire month of October, not having taken to the road since September 28th. What that has done is allowed everyone to forget just how bad a road team the Texans have been. They are 11-3 in their last 14 at home, but road has treated them completely different. Houston is just 1-9 SU in their last 10 on the road, having been outscored 307-175! They have not produced more than 24 points in any of their last 10 on the road, while allowing less than 26 just once! Minnesota comes in off a bye after a wild shootout vs. Chicago. The 48 points allowed was certainly a departure from what Minnesota is normally about. They are flying under the radar now, as they allowed four defensive-special teams TDs and six turnovers their last two games. This team is better than they appear and as a result, they are not getting the look from the oddsmakers they should here. This one should be a TD plus win for the Vikes.

The Cards are off a disappointing loss to the upstart Panthers, in a game they led at the half 10-3, only to fall in the second half. I loved the Panthers in that spot and it panned out well for us last week. The Rams held their own against the Patriots, but in the end, just didn't have enough to pull off the upset on the road. This is truly an offensively-starved team in St. Louis. Yes they put up 34 against Dallas, but that was due to four key Dallas turnovers. Last week against a mediocre New England defense, they put just one TD on the board. And, the week before they were limited to 200 yards of total offense vs. Washington. Prior to that, they scored just 40 points in four games. So, as many feel this offense has gotten better, I don't really buy it just yet. But, the Rams are improved as they have gotten healthier - it's just that it's on defense! After allowing nearly 37 ppg over their first four games, they have now tightened up, and allowed just 18 ppg over their last three. Arizona has done a terrific job on offense, and I think if everything goes right, and they mentally and emotionally show-up for this one, 30 points is not out of the question. But even in that scenario, it is still asking the Rams offense to do something they have done just once this season, and that is to top the 17-point mark (the 19 they got vs. Washington included 7 scored by defense). It generally takes two good offenses to put a total OVER when you get in the upper range as we are here. In this game I only see one.

The Cincinnati Bengals are still searching for their first win of the season. There were those that thought they had a chance last week against the then 2-4 Texans but the Bengals laid another huge egg, losing 35-6. It was Cincinnati's sixth game out of eight scoring 14 or less. Meanwhile Jacksonville comes in at a disappointing 3-4, in a season where they expected things to be much different. The Bengals were a big public favorite last week as an underdog (a rare occurance). As mentioned, they completely disappointed. So Cincinnati is now "off limits" to the betting public and the TV talking heads, as they were singed big time last week! That is exactly when it is time to jump in! The value here is actually obvious. The Bengals were 9-point home dogs vs. the Steelers two weeks ago. So this line says that the Jags are the Steelers equal? Hardly! Jacksonville is not playing like a playoff team, as they are ranked in the bottom third of the league on both sides of the ball. Those teams have been a dsaster ATS having burned their backers to the tune of 26-57 since 2000, covering just 31% of the time. Jacksonville is one of those teams that plays to the level of their competition. They have played seven games, and win or lose, none have been decided by more than a touchdown. I have an extremely strong system backing the Bengals here involving teams prior to their bye that has gone 30-5 ATS. Lots of coaches give incentives for time off as motivation and thanks to that, and the emotional benefit of winning going into a bye, I expect a good effort from Cincinnati. I know it's tough to back the lowly Bengals here after what they have done this season. But, "ugly underdogs" are where the money lines in the NFL more often than not. Teams that are 0-8 or worse are 11-4 ATS since 2000. Then there is the issue of Jacksonville. Since the 2003-04 season, the Jags have fielded some pretty good teams, finishing with 12-4, 11-5 and 9-7 marks, with playoff appearances. But even then this team was not good on the road! The last 45 times they have taken to the road, they have only won by more than 9 points four times in 44 games! The NFL is paved with bad teams collecting money every week, and here comes another! I'll take the home team and the points here.

It doesn't take long for a team to develop a reputation and for some reason, once they do, it sticks with them deep into the season. The Broncos reputation is one of great offense and terrible defense. It started with a 41 point outburst vs. Oakland in the opener. And when a national TV audience saw them go up and down the field vs. San Diego at will, bombing the Chargers for 39, the reputation was firmly established. That was followed by a 34 point performance vs. New Orleans, and now this team is an offensive powerhouse, right? Things have been completely different since then. Since then, Denver has faced defenses with an average ranking of 18.3, or in the bottom half of the league, and have managed to average just 14.8 ppg. They have faced two defenses ranked below Miami in the four games, and averaged 18 ppg. This total isn't set on reality, but rather perception that was established over a month ago. Miami has two running backs that should be able to keep each other fresh, and I'd be very surprised if they don't go straight down the gut of the Denver run stop unit that is being beaten off the line of scrimmage on a regular basis, allowing 5.4 ypc. That will tend to minimize the number of possessions for Denver, and shorten the game. This total is simply loaded with value, and I'll take the UNDER.

The Cowboys face has changed behind center, as Tony Romo remains sidlined with a broken finger. Since his injury, under Brad Johnson the Cowboys have gone from unstoppable to mediocre in a hurry. Johnson took his first snaps from center this year vs. the Rams, and the rust was evident. But last week he did a great job managing the game, and the Cowboys finished with no turnovers, winning the game. These teams played wide open football during the regular season last year and it resulted in two Cowboys wins. The Giants went to school and played a different game in the playoffs throwing the ball just 18 times in their playoff win. The roles have reversed now, and Dallas will employ the same ball control tactics, and allow their defense to keep them close here. After a close opening week win vs. Washington, the Giants put up 41, 26 and 44 points in their next three games. But who did that come against? St. Louis, Cincinnati and Seattle! So, while the general public gives New York a ton of credit, I don't. Their next game came against the lowly Cleveland Browns and New York lost outright as a 7.5 point favorite. They have gone on to win two straight but again one of those wins came against another bad team in San Fancisco. While the New York's 6-1 record looks impressive, the fact remains that it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the entire NFL. The Giants are very good, but in my opinion, somewhat overrated. Their offense that was cranking earlier, has seen a huge dropoff, producing just 21.3 ppg the last three games. This is a lot of points for a division rivalry game, especially when Dallas needs this one in a big way. And, Dallas should be more motivated here. They are getting very little respect right now and would love nothing more than to make a statement here before their bye, that they can win a big game without Romo. And this Dallas team was destined for the Super Bowl last year, only to have New York come into their house and knock them out. You can bet the 'Boys want this one bad, and they need it more than does New York. In recent weeks, the Dallas bandwagon has been abondoned as everyone jumped ship to New York's. What I see is a divisional underdog of nearly double-digits, with motivation, facing a team that has cruised over patsies so far. I expect the Cowboys to find a way to stay close here.

Before the season started, the NBC probably thought they would be getting two undefeated teams for this game. Obviously things have changed dramatically. Tom Brady went down with a knee injury in week one, and peyton Manning is seemingly dealing with the after effects from off season knee surgery. The Patriots have won five games, but it's hard to find a lot of quality in their wins. In their losses, they have been blown out of the building. After being a complete no-show offensively the first three weeks of the season, the Colts have shown the signs of getting it back. They torched a top notch Baltimore defense for 31 and last Monday, they put up 21 on the top ranked Tennessee defense. It was the most the Titans have allowed this year, and Indy did it on the road where the Colts typically do not play well. This week it looks like they get Bob Sanders back, and he makes a tremendous difference to the defense. In fact, I am not sure there is a more impactful single guy on any NFL roster, save Brady. Without Sanders, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Indianapolis is average. With him, they are great. In addition, they welcome back Joseph Addai this week. New England QB Matt Cassel has not shown the ability to stretch the field, which allows the safeties to cheat up and help with the run. That helps helps patch a Colts deficiency. The Colts are coming off two straight losses, dropping them to 3-4. The differenfe between a win here (4-4) vs. a loss (3-5) is nothing less than huge for the Colts. I expect them to come ready to play. Look for the Colts to step up big time, and win this one comfortably.

Results: 4-2

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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-October-24-2008
I was all over Arizona in their last game, predicting the upset over Dallas. This week however I am going to fade them. Why? For starters, they are on the road. The Cards are turning into one of the l...

NFL-Football-Picks-October-17-2008
Both of these teams have been beaten up through the first six weeks of the season. Pittsburgh may be the healthier of the two, and they are certainly in better shape record-wise at 4-1 vs. Cincy's...

NFL-Football-Picks-October-13-2008
The Giants will put their unbeaten record to the test tonight as they take to the road to face a desperate Cleveland team. The Browns got off to a slow start, thanks to sub-par play and some injuries....

NFL-Football-Picks-October-10-2008
Brett Favre, after a slow start learning the Jets system, has really taken off. The Jets have scored 85 points in their last two games with Favre throwing for 560 yards and nine touchdowns! He's c...

NFL-Football-Picks-October-02-2008
The Lions caught their bye at a very good time. They started horribly and needed to regroup. They let go Matt Millen and all that baggage and look to start anew this week. The Lions are not a great te...