darrell,

We rocked last week going 3-1-1 and 11-3 on a unit basis. The three wins gave us outright underdog winners on Minnesota, Oakland and Atlanta. Since the start of the regular season, we are now 22-11 on the picks and 53-26 on a unit basis for +24.4 units. I like this week's games quite a bit.

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Game: Baltimore at New Orleans (Sunday 10/29 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Baltimore +2

The Ravens started the season going 4-0. Things looked great as Steve McNair was doing enough to win and the Ravens' defense allowed just 33 total points over those four games. Then they lose Monday night in Denver in week 5 and follow that with a loss at home to Carolina in week 6. Suddenly no one believes in the Ravens anymore. Well, I am not ready to give up on them. I have reason to believe they will improve on offense and they still have one of the best defenses in the NFL (3rd ranked). Sure, they lost to Denver and Carolina. But, those two teams are playing VERY well right now. Baltimore has held five of six opponents to 14 points or less this year. This defense is awesome. With the switch of play calling abilities to head coach Brian Billick, and an extra week to prepare, I look for the Ravens to improve offensively this week. And don't forget that they have already scored 21+ points three times this year. They've struggled offensively in their three other games but two of those were against great defenses: Denver and San Diego. San Diego has the second ranked defense in yards per game and Denver is tops in points allowed per game. So it's not a big surprise that Baltimore didn't have much offensive success against those two. On the flipside, the public is now officially enamored with the Saints. It all started on Monday night in week three when they anhilated the favored Atlanta Falcons. Since then, they kept it close against Carolina and beat Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. And everyone loves Reggie Bush. The Saints are 5-1 SU and ATS and look to be on top of the world. But they are now overvalued in my opinion. This should be closer to a pick'em game. Baltimore's defense is absolutely stifling so expect this Saints offense, so good to date, to struggle for the first time. They have faced some of the league's worst defenses so far in Cleveland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay. They haven't seen anything like this yet and it will be a rude awakening for an offense that is likley believing their own hype to some extent. Baltimore is in a great spot here. They are in desparate need of a win after two straight losses including an upset loss before the bye. The Ravens are 17-4 ATS over the past decade off an upset loss and 21-8 ATS off a home loss! Baltimore wins this game. Take them with the points to boot.

I don't often pick big favorites but I like the Giants a lot this Sunday at home against the Bucs. The G-Men are a top 5 team in my opinion right now. Their offense is great and their defense is good enough. Tampa Bay's offense is very weak. How will they keep up with the Giants on Sunday? I don't think they will. They have the 29th ranked offense in points per game (14.2) and yards per game (269). And their defense, so good in years past, is ranked 27th in yards allowed this season. The Bucs have played a tough schedule having faced Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Cincinnati and Philly. They started out 0-4 but since Bruce Gradowski took over for Chris Simms, they have managed a couple of wins. This has the public looking their way a bit. But, they were able to put up just 14 points against Cincinnati and 9 offensive points vs. Philadelphia in those wins. They may get mid-to-high double figures here in this game but I see the Giants getting to 28+. The Giants have averaged 27 points per game and since week two, have scored 27 or higher in every game but one and 30+ in three of those games. The only game in which they did not score a lot was vs. Washington in week 5. But if you remember, they ran all over the Giants and just couldn't get the ball in the endzone. They got into the Washington redzone on each of their first six possessions! It was a flukey game in which they racked up 411 total yards on offense but scored only 19 points. Tiki Barber is nearly unstoppable and with Schockey, Toomer and Burress to throw to, Eli Manning has outperformed his more famous brother this year, already throwing for over 1,500 yards. Tampa rankes 30th in rush defense so Barber is licking his chops. The Giants defense is a bit nicked up but Tampa Bay has no running game (averaging 92 yards per game and only 2 running back touchdowns) and a rookie QB. Gradowski has managed the game well, especially for a rookie. But, he's not likely to put up big numbers. In his first start against New Orleans, he surprised with a 225 yard performance. But two weeks ago against the Bengals, he threw for only 184 yards and last week he managed just 104 yards and after sacks, netted 85. Tampa Bay won that game thanks to an awful game from Donovan McNabb (two interceptsion returned for touchdowns) but really Tampa should not have won. The bottom line is that in game in which Gradowski will likely be called upon to score a lot of points (lots of offense from NYG and very little TB running game), I don't think he can do so. Giants by double-digits here.

Perfect set up here. Carolina, starting the year 0-2 without Steve Smith, won four straight with him back in the lineup before losing a very close game last week vs. Cincinnati. Carolina was an underdog in that game so bettors are not holding it against them that they lost. They still like this team - a lot. It was a team many fans and ESPN analysts picked for the Super Bowl prior to the season. After their great run the past five weeks, everyone has convinced themselves again that they were right with their preseason pick and Carolina is a great team. But are they great? Dallas is off a bad loss to the Giants on national TV. They now stick a new QB in there and he didn't look very good in 2nd half play last week. So, the public is all over the Panthers in this one. Your gut is probably right there saying "How can he pick the Cowboys here?" About 67% of the money is coming in on Carolina on this game. Well, as I asked last week when picking Oakland to win, bear with me. I actually think the change to Tony Romo at QB is a good thing. Bledsoe was just too immobile and was getting sacked left and right. Romo will be able to make more plays with his feet. He looked great in preseason and he's no rookie. This will be his first NFL start but he's been with the team for a while. He knows this system. He has had a full week to prepare with the starting offense. His teammates will "step it up" this week to help out the new guy. Dallas is in need of a win here, sitting at 3-3, coming off a humiliating loss. They will leave it all on the field and play harder. Romo's game on Monday night wasn't so bad in retrospect. He did throw three interceptions but one was a batted ball that happen to fall into the arms of a defender. He was 14 of 25 for 227 yards and two touchdowns - not bad for one half of play, especially when the defense knows you need to throw the ball. I look for Romo to better utilize Terrell Owens than did Bledsoe. Romo won't be afraid to throw it up to the guy who will more often than not come down with the ball. Owens has publicly commented that he welcomes the change. For a self-absorbed guy who only cares about how well he will do on Sunday, that should tell you something. And, Carolina's defense will have a harder time preparing for this game because of the change. They don't know what to expect from this quarterback - there's no tape. Back to the Panthers. Carolina is a very solid team, but they aren't blowing anyone out. Three of their four victories have come by a field goal or less. They have only won by 5+ (this spread) once this season and that was at home against the lowly Cleveland Browns - big deal! They are actually giving up more points per game this year than they are getting (17.6 to 18.3)! They were just 2 for 11 last week on third down against an average Cincinnati defense. I am not yet convinced that Carolina is a dominating team. This spread is inflated as Carolina should probably be favored by about 2-3 points. And that's without the motivational advantage that I believe the Cowboys to have. I like Dallas to win this game or at least keep it very close.