Free Nfl Predictions - October 28, 2007
We're off a big 4-1 week as we notched our third straight winning week in the NFL. We now now stand at 34-22 good for 61%. We have 4 Sunday picks...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Cleveland at St. Louis (Sunday 10/28 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on St. Louis +3
Most people are surprised to see this Cleveland team at 3-3. Without a missed field goal as time expired vs. Oakland, they'd be 4-2. The bigger surprise is seeing St. Louis coming into this one 0-7. They are off a 33-6 beat down last week. The combination of these three things have resulted in the unthinkable: Cleveland favored on the road at St. Louis. If you had to guess this pointspread in the preseaosn, you would have guessed St. Louis by 7-10 points. Sense where we are going with this? Derek Anderson has been a feast or famine QB for Cleveland as he has 14 TD passes, but has also been picked off eight times. Jamal Lewis has done a good job with his new team, but his 4.9 ypc average is a bit tainted. He broke one for big run for 66 yards and without that he's a smidge over 4.0 per carry. The Browns may be without him Sunday as he will be a game time decision. The offense is not deep but they are talented, with Edwards and Winslow getting most of the action in the passing game. But, despite their 3-3 record (4-2 ATS), the Browns have been outgained this season by their opponents by an average of 59 yards per game! This is a team that struggles defensively to put pressure on the QB, so Marc Bulger will have more time than what we have seen to date for the Rams. St. Louis has not seen the endzone in two weeks, and are 0-7, so how can we be on them? This is a different team than they have fielded most of the year. Marc Bulger returned last week and their biggest weapon, Stephen Jackson returns this week along with WRs Dane Looker and Drew Bennett. Teams as futile as St. Louis actually contain hidden value from a betting perspective. Teams that are 0-7 or worse teams are 10-1 ATS since 2000 and we have another system that has connected on 65% in the NFL that is active for this game with over 100 plays in it. This one looks ugly, but as we said before, stats don't determine who covers the pointspread in games in this league. The fact is, the Rams are a live home dog at the peak of value. Often when a team seems so bad, that you can't imagine betting on them, is the time to back them (i.e. Atlanta last week). We'll take the "ugly" Rams here as a very live dog.
Game: Houston at San Diego (Sunday 10/28 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Houston +9.5
It has been a tough week for the Chargers. The fires burning in this area have caused over two-thirds of team members to evacuate their houses. They missed Monday's practice and we think it will be a big challenge for this team to completely focus on football this week. Philip Rivers said this week, "What's most important is making sure our families are taken care of and that everyone has what they need out of their houses. Once everybody is safe, we can start putting the focus on the week and the game." Sometimes life issues take on more relavance than a game. The Texans are off a torturous game against the Titans. They fell way behind, and put up a huge 4th quarter to take the lead, only to lose in the closing moments. Sage Rosenfels may in fact get the start, and he actually moved the offense better than Schaub. Lots of times football games aren't decided by stats. The Chargers continue to get the same respect from the odds-makers, as if this team is playing at the level they did last year. They are a good team but they are nowhere near the level they were in 2006. The offense is ranked 13th this year, down from 4th last season. The defense was in the top 10 last year, but has dropped to 16th this year. They are ranked 25th against the pass which is Houston's strength. This team has four primary leaders: Coach Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Shawn Merriman. All four of them were evacuated from their homes this week. It is impossible to think that their focus is on football, with their families, and home in jeopardy. This is a better Houston team than we have seen in the past, and with the Charger mindset in a state of disarray, this line, which was set too high to begin with, looks even better. Houston has won 11 of their last 13 games ATS following 2+ consecutive losses. We will also note that home favorites coming off a bye facing a team that scored 31+ last week are 1-18-1 ATS! Houston has some bite this week, and we'll back this live dog.
Game: Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (Sunday 10/28 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 32 -110
The Tampa Bay offense has already lost it's top two running backs and now WR Clayton is down with a high ankle sprain. Jacksonville has struggled offensively all season, but the Jags have been able to run effectively. The problem is they lost QB David Garrard to an ankle sprain last week. It was quite apparent last week that his replacement is not ready for prime time. If not for Garrard going down, this would have been a difficult spot for Tampa Bay's defense, as they tend to struggle against a powerful running attack with their smallish cover-2 defense. But now they will be able to stack against the run, and Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio is not going to put QB Gray Quinn in a position to make mistakes. Quinn has been bad at just 9-24 37% on the season with two INTs and 2.3 yards per attempt. His longest completion is 11 yards. The Bucs have the 5th rated pass defense and the Jags aren't going to take it on, or they lose. Garcia has had a good year, but with a competent defense and no running game, and a team that simply doesn't give up big plays, it will be very difficult to sustain drives. There are not many lined games in the NFL with a total posted at or below the freezing mark, but when there is the games tend to play to that total. There are 21 games where the total has been posted at 32.5 or less in the last 24 years and 16 have gone UNDER while 5 have gone OVER. Only twice has a team scored 30 points in these low total games. The majority of them see one of the teams in single digits. Tampa Bay, with their great defense, has seen a lot of low totals in recent years. In their last 52 games with a total posted at 35 or less, they are 35-17 UNDER. Over the past three seasons, the Bucs are 22-11 UNDER on grass. And, under Gruden, they are 23-11 UNDER as a home favorite. We will ride the UNDER in a game of few sustained drives.
Game: Buffalo at New York Jets (Sunday 10/28 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New York Jets -3
Things change fast in this league. The Jets were playing New England in the playoffs last year, with many giving them a shot at winning. They proceed to start this season 1-6, and all of a sudden last year's genious, Eric Mangini, has got the lynch mob after him. Buffalo has been given a lot of credit for their recent play. They beat the Jets by 3 at home (but note that they were out-gained) and they had Dallas til the very end on Monday night. Then they beat Baltimore at home - a huge upset. Trent Edwards has been annointed as the QB of the future for Buffalo, and while that may be the case, he has yet to perform on the road. There are some indications that may be a bit scary for Buffalo fans, as he has had some rough 4th quarters. He has not been on the road yet, and playing a division rival in their crib is likely to present problems for the youngster. Remember, this is a Buffalo team that has scored just five TDs in their last five games on offense. It is also a defense that has recorded just five sacks all season. Chad Pennington has had some issues but given time in the pocket, he is superb. He completed 32-39 on the road at Buffalo, and the result will be different at home. The Jets are a desparate team for a win right now and this is the place they will get it. Mangini was extremely upset after his team blew a 23-10 halftime lead to the Bengals last week. We suspect they had a very tough and focused week of practice and will come out strong here. Buffalo, in their two road games this season, managed just 208 yards and 5 points per game. Road teams off an upset win as a home underdog cover the spread in just 22% of their games the following week. We like the Jets to win this by more than a field goal.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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