|
Betting Football Free Pick - October 26, 2008We posted a very good week last week hitting with both 5-unit plays and the 4-unit play and losing the two smaller ones. It was our eigth winning week out of eleven for the NFL. This week we have five selections...  Today's NFL Football Picks: I was all over Arizona in their last game, predicting the upset over Dallas. This week however I am going to fade them. Why? For starters, they are on the road. The Cards are turning into one of the league's best at home, but on the road they don't produce at the same level. Last season they 2-6 on the road but 6-2 at home. This year they are 3-0 SU and ATS at home, outscoring opponents 102-51. That includes wins over the Cowboys and the 5-1 Buffalo Bills. But, on the road, they are 1-2 SU and ATS, getting outscored by an average of score of 25-31. And, those games were against mediocre opponents (San Francisco, Washington and the Jets). This team is just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games as underdogs. Secondly, they are playing Carolina. The Panthers have emerged as a force in 2008. They are 5-2 having posted wins against San Diego, Chicago and New Orleans. They have not lost against the spread in seven straight home games. In their four home games, they have outscored their opponents 108-33! The Cards have lsot 21 of their last 29 games ATS following two straight wins. I like Carolina here at home. Game: San Diego vs. New Orleans (Sunday 10/26 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on New Orleans +3 (-105) (risk 2 to win 1.9) The winner of last year's inaugular "London Bowl" went on to win the Super Bowl. Both of these teams would love to get a chance to replicate that feat, but at 3-4, it doesn't look good. The winner here gets to a respectable 4-4 record while the loser sinks to 3-5 and sees their playoff hopes get much dimmer. Both teams come off losses. Yes, the Saints have lost Reggie Bush. But Aaaron Stecker, Pierre Thomas and Duece McCallister can easily carry the load from the backfield. The Saints have a bye week upcoming and want desparately to win this game going into the off week. "We came over here knowing that this is pretty much a must-win game for us," said Marques Colston who is back from a thumb injury. Drew Brees agrees, saying "I'd be lying if I told you it was just any other game." Off their worst offensive performance of the year (7 points after averaging 29 per game prior to that), I expect the Saints to have a big game. The same can't necessarily be said for the Chargers who can't get LaDanian Tomlinson untracked. In his last three games he has gained a total of 150 yards and no touchdowns. The Saints have the better offense and more motivation, coming off an absolute stinker. Game: Buffalo at Miami (Sunday 10/26 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Miami +1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) What a difference a week can make. While the believers in Buffalo were scarce last week when they hosted the Chargers, after the win the Bills are now officially on the radar. After beating San Diego in a game many thought they would lose, they are now 5-1 and getting a lot of media attention. Miami was getting attention after winning two straight versus New England and San Diego. But two losses later and they are now considered a bad team again. Many got burned last week backing the Dolphins and they are steering clear this week as nearly 70% of the betting public is on Buffalo here as a road favorite in a division game. I'm not buying it. While I faded Miami last week, I think they are the play this week. If this game were last week, Miami would be favored. Buffalo won last week, but they were inches away from defeat as Phillip Rivers threw a red-zone interception late in that game. I think Buffalo is a good team for sure, but not as good as their record would indicate. Their wins have come against Seattle, Jacksonville, Oakland, St. Louis and San Diego - teams that have a combined 11-20 record. Not a single one of those teams has a winning record! I think this line is out-of-whack. This is Buffalo's first division game and to be favored on the road in that type of matchup spells trouble. I'll take the live home dog. Game: Cleveland at Jacksonville (Sunday 10/26 4:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Here we have another classic case of underrated vs overrated. Jacksonville is not the team most think they are. What used to be a good defense and pass rushing team is now ranked 21st against the pass, having managed just eight sacks on the season. Marcus Stroud is sorely missed and now that Mike Peterson seems to be past his prime, the Jags are getting run on as well. I think Jamal Lewis will be able to give the Browns favorable down and distance. If that holds, then Derek Anderson can have another big game. Without a significant pass rush, Anderson can hurl with the best of them. David Garrard had a breakout season last year for the Jags, but the reality is, this season teams have made adjustments and he has had but two good games all season. He will be missing favorite target Matt Jones, who is serving a three game suspension. The Browns must win this week. A loss and the season is gone. A win keeps hope burning. When this team was in a must-win situation two weeks ago vs. the undefeated Giants, they delivered. What may surprise people is the Browns defense has allowed 14 points or less in four of the last five games, holding teams to 15.6 ppg over the stretch! The Brownies have covered the spread six straight times following a road loss. The Jacksonville of last year won nine of eleven games by 7+ points. This season they haven't beaten anyone by more than a touchdown. The Jags are 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season but 0-4 ATS as a favorite. This line is too high, and I'm jumping on the Browns for the cover the number. Game: Seattle at San Francisco (Sunday 10/26 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Seattle +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Did you watch the Seahawks pathetic performance last week vs the Bucs on Sunday night? Many people did, and now most won't touch this team with a 10 foot pole. Many fewer watched the Niners' equally pathetic performance vs. the Giants. The final score wasn't crazy as they lost by 12 as a 10.5 point underdog. So casual onlookers see a game that played out about as expected. But, they gained just 253 yards, had an alarming 13 penalties, were sacked six times, and turned the ball over three times. The league is on to J.T. O'Sullivan. Blitz this team into mistakes, because he can't handle the pressure. Over the last 4 weeks, O'Sullivan has fumbled six times and thrown nine interceptions. That is four huge mistakes per week, and it is not likely a team can overcome that. The Seahawks have been more competitive against the sub-par teams this season, and owe the Niners one for a3-point OT loss earlier in the season. The Hawks will be putting an all-out-attack for O'Sullivan who has proven he can't take the heat. My computer prediction for this game has this one closer than a field goal and I agree. NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-October-17-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-October-13-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-October-10-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-October-02-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-29-2008 |
     RSS
FEEDS
Sports Picks
HOME
TO: |
