Nfl Football Expert Pick - October 25, 2009
After getting hammered for most of the season thus far, underdogs bit back hard last week going 9-5 ATS. That included outright wins by the Raiders at +14.5, Buffalo at +10 and Kansas City at +6.5. The public took a big hit going 1-3 on their biggest bet games. But, there were still a few big blowouts by favorites and that has kept the betting public enamored with them. Heck, one week won't deter them! I believe that despite the results of last week, the oddsmakers are still handing us value on underdogs this week as we again see some big lines and the public is lining up on the favorites with reckless abandon.
We went 3-3 last week for just our second losing week in the regular season. While I like a few favorites a bit this week, I feel the value is again on the underdogs at inflated lines, and we have five of them on Sunday.
Usually my computer matchups predict scores that are on average, about even with the Vegas lines. But this week, there is a consistent pattern: in many of the games (especially the ones I happen to like for other reasons too), the computer predicts underdogs covering by about 2 full points. That may not sound like a lot, but it is. Again, I never pick soley on the computer matchup results - it's just that they happen to line up with my selections this week as well.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Green Bay at Cleveland (Sunday 10/25 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +9.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The Packers are off a very impressive win. Or are they? They beat the Lions 26-0 but the reality is, Green Bay didn't play as well as the score would indicate. The much maligned offensive line struggled yet again as they couldn't block the Lions, despite throwing mostly short passes as the Lions recorded five sacks on the day. It has been a problem all season as the Pack has now allowed 25 sacks. Thank goodness they were playing the Lions without their top two offensive threats in Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Things will not get any better this week for the Pack's line, as they have now lost Chad Clifton to an injury. The Browns have been able to get to the QB this season, as they have recorded 12 sacks and you can be sure they will be coming after Rodgers in this one. The Browns started off the year looking like a bad team but they have played much better with Derek Anderson at QB and have now covered three straight games. Anderson's numbers aren't pretty, but one of his starts was on a very windy day in Buffalo, and he has thrown only two INTs and one was a late in the game desperation heave downfield. The point is, this Browns team has improved with him behind center, but the lines haven't yet reflected it. The Packers are in a division sandwich as they are off a win over the Lions, have this expected"easy" game with Cleveland, and then a showdown with Brett Favre on tap for next week. With revenge in mind for a painful loss to Minnesota in primetime just a few weeks ago, I don't expect Green Bay's head to be all there for this game. The Browns are now 7-1-1 ATS as a dog of 3.5-10 points and also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six at home against a team with a winning road record. Yes, the Browns have had issues this week with the flu, and Josh Cribbs is questionable, but this line is just too much to lay on a Green Bay team on the road that has shown they have some fundamental issues. We have a classic look-ahead game for the Packers here and the Browns have covered three straight and are looking like a football team again. I'm going with the Browns in this one.
Game: Minnesota at Pittsburgh (Sunday 10/25 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Minnesota +6 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Steelers by default are going to be facing pointspreads that are juiced all season simply because they are the reigning Superbowl Champs. We faded them successfully last week and it worked out and I'm doing the same this week. The Vikings come into this game at 6-0 and I don't remember a 6-0 team ever getting this many points in a game. I went back to 1989 and found just one time a 6-0 team played as an underdog, and it was back in 2006 when the Colts were a 2.5 point dog to the Broncos in Denver. The Colts went on to win that game outright. The fact is that 6-0 teams are 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, including the one time they have been posted as an underdog. While the Steelers have won three straight, they have covered just once and on the season, going 1-5 ATS thus far. Despite playing a schedule of teams that are a combined 11-23 on the season, Pittsburgh has outscored these teams by a grand total of just 28 points. You can take any two teams the Steelers have played to date, and they don't have more wins than the Vikings! This is a statement game for the Vikings, because if they knock off the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they will be in the conversation for the best team in the league. Brett Favre has found a comfortable home in Minnesota, mainly because he has Adrian Peterson who is a constant threat out of the backfield to break off a long one. Pittsburgh has become a pass-happy team (not good), and the Vikings have 21 sacks on the season and will be putting pressure on Big Ben. We have seen that take its toll before on the Steelers' offense. This one sets up to be a field-goal-type game (my computer matchup agrees), so getting this many points is certainly an overlay and bonus. I'll ride with the red-hot Vikings here.
Game: San Francisco at Houston (Sunday 10/25 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on San Francisco +3 (+100) (risk 4 to win 4)
I don't think life on the practice field or locker room has been very pleasant for the 49ers over the last two weeks. San Francisco was spanked badly at home 45-10 by the Falcons before their bye. That kind of humiliating loss at home is what motivates players and coaches to come out with a vengeance in their next game. I'm sure Coach Mike Singletary has reminded them directly and indirectly of how bad they were for two straight weeks. He has been the single most influential change in this 49ers team, and so far they have responded to him. Usually it's bad teams getting handed 35-point home losses but we have an exception here because this Niner's team is good. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games under Singletary, and he has spread his intensity and fire into the players’ heads and translated it to wins on the field. The Niners have covered all four games after their last four losses under Samurai Mike, and three of those covered the spread by a total of 54 points! I expect a big effort here after that terrible loss to the Falcons. The Texans are getting a banner season out of Matt Schaub, but over the years he has struggled against 3-4 defenses. Already this season he was completely shut down by the Jets and the Texans were scoreless in the first half vs. Arizona. Schaub had a better second half vs. Arizona, but ultimately threw a pick-six that sealed the loss. That will put a lot of pressure on a Houston defense with just seven sacks all season. Frank Gore is back and he should get enough yards to help Shaun Hill stay out of third and long situations, and do what he has done best - manage the game. The Texans are the classic breakeven team. They are good enough to surprise at times, and bad enough to disappoint. They have not won two games in a row all season, nor have they lost two, and that streak has reached eight games now. They are now a favorite against an angry, motivated team that plays a defense their Houston's QB has a proven history of struggling against. The game may very well be in Shaub's hands thanks to the fact that San Francisco boasts the one of the league's top rushing defenses. They've held opponents to just 89 yards per game on the ground. And that has come against some superb running backs including Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner and Stephen Jackson. I like the points and the Niners here.
Game: New York Jets at Oakland (Sunday 10/25 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Oakland +7 (-130) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
The Jets head to the West Coast hoping to fare better this time. They made two trips to the West Coast last year and lost both, one to this same Raiders team. JaMarcus Russell finally put together a good game as did the entire Raiders team, shocking the Eagles last week in Oakland. They all-of-a-sudden have some confidence and even swagger after climbing to 2-4 for the year. The Jets have come back down to earth after starting the season 3-0. They have lost three in a row including back-to-back games as favorites. They lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins for the year, and that should mean more running room for Justin Fargas in this game. This game features two struggling QBs. JaMarcus Russell is off of his best game of the year has his Oakland teammates brimming with confidence. Mark Sanchez, in contrast, has thrown no TD passes in his last three games, while completing eight to the wrong team, and is personally responsible for two losses. Sanchez has just 429 passing yards in the last three games - just 5.3 yards per attempt. You can bet that the Raiders and Richard Seymour are going to tee-off on him as it is one thing the Raiders can do, having posted 15 sacks already on the season. Jets backers must lay a TD on the road with a rookie QB that has had his confidence shaken badly, and a team that is on a complete free-fall like the Jets are right now. This is a good matchup for Oakland because the Jets don't score a lot. The Raiders need to play good defense as they have most of the season, and keep mistakes to a minimum. New York has lost 12 of their last 15 games ATS vs. losing teams. I'm going with the Raiders in this one.
Game: New Orleans at Miami (Sunday 10/25 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Miami +7 (-125) (risk 3 to win 2.4)
The Saints are coming off their biggest win in recent franchise history - a resounding and convincing win over the powerful Giants. Drew Brees took apart the Giants secondary en route to a very easy 48-27 win. The Saints are now 5-0 SU and ATS and so far look like the team to beat in the NFC, if not the entire NFL. What that win has done is inflated this line. They are now laying a touchdown on the road to a team that is playing great football of late. The trick against the Saints is to keep their offense off the field as much as possible. What better team to do that than the Miami Dolphins who lead the league in time-of-possession. The teams in the top six for TOP that trail Miami? New England, Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Minnesota. Pretty good company. The Wildcat offense isn't for everyone. But, Miami has found a way to make this thing really work. The combination of smart play calling and perfect personel have made it unstoppable thus far. They have put up 790 yards rushing in the last four weeks - close to 200 per game - at just about five yards per carry. New Orleans has done a good job against the run, but those numbers are a bit misleading as they have played from a big lead all season, forcing their opponent to the air. Miami showed that they can slow down an air attack with their offense as they held the ball for over 40 minutes vs. the Colts. They should have won that game at home. In spite of that, they would have covered the +7 number that's been posted in this game as the Saints are now considered better than the Colts as this line is juiced beyond the Colts’ number when they played in Miami. The Saints could very well have a bit of a hangover from their big game last week. It's not likely that they'll play at an optimum level in this one as the intensity can't be as high as last week, especially considering that they have a big divisional rivalry game on tap next Monday Night vs. the 4-1 Falcons. Meanwhile, this is a critical game for Miami. They either drop to 2-4 with a loss, or jump to 3-3 with a win and gain a ton of confidence moving forward. The Dolphins haven't allowed a 300-yard passer yet this season despite having faced Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Brees has been lights out this year but in five games, he's thrown for less than 200 yards in 40% of them (vs. the Jets and Bills). New Orleans may be the best team in the league (they sure look like it), but when you have a team that is undefeated SU and ATS, laying a TD on the road, with over 80% of the public backing them, that team has to be considered overripe and the value has to be on the other side. I'm going with Miami at home.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-October-19-2009
This has been a very interesting NFL season thus far. Favorites (especially big ones) have been hitting at a very abnormal rate. Some winning teams from last season that were supposed to be winning ag...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-16-2009
The Redskins offense has really struggled this season as we know. They have managed just 14.6 points per game through five games. But, it isn't something that has started this season. In their fin...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-09-2009
The New York Giants have done just about everything right. They come in here with a 4-0 record and are playing very well on both sides of the ball. The same certainly can't be said for the Oakland...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-05-2009
The Vikings will take on the Packers with Brett Favre wearing the purple and gold for the first time. This is a long-standing, heated divisional rivalry that doesn't need extra motivation but it i...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-02-2009
The Cleveland Browns have looked extremely ugly over their first three games and enter week four looking for their first win. While the Browns are certainly far from a good team, they are not nea...
